That is exactly what my brain-dead model says slightly better chance of going up than down. Anyhow, sure is nice to retire into a nice simmering bull market.
There is no reason that you could not use a more sophisticated model for inflation but that doesn't seem to buy you much. A first order Markov process would be the most simple beyond a constant. Hard to know what correlation time to use and it would be complex to model correlations between inflation and asset returns. Plugging in different constant values for inflation probably is as defensible as any other model.
"retire from what, life?" retire from needing to make money from whatever it is that you do--as in your last sentence. I liked what I did for a really long time. On the other hand I liked doing other things even more. Most of those things were outside and involved sweating. I still like those things and plan keep doing them as long as I like them. There are a lot of places I haven't been. My particular field didn't help me "give back" the way that I would like. So I am off anew.
I am one week retired at 55.3. One of several in my cohort that retired this year from our long-time employer. I know of several others the same age that are going out in the next year or two. We are going by choice and because we know we can afford it. There is about 10% of the population that: makes enough money, doesn't spend it, doesn't get a messy divorce, and does some investing that gets to retire.
I started a bit late on the investing. A coworker actually signed me up for the 401k. I was 40 before I started to invest after tax money--in the middle of the .com bubble. If I would have started 5 years earlier, I would have made a mint (and probably lost it too). I never sweated the volatility when I was young. Probably don't sweat it as much as I should now.
It is kind of cool to retire into a nice bull market. Kind of hard to get defensive--as I know I should. One of these days.
You are too young to be investing like a retiree. Forget the yield and the 0.8 beta buy small and mid-caps, emerging markets, and other high beta high reward stuff. Time is on your side and you don't care about volatility for the next couple of decades.
You have too many things for that amount of money.
As a young engineer about 30 years ago, we did trade studies to design avionics and documented them in a memo. We would submit our computer programs to a machine in a different city and get the greenbar output the next day. After several iterations we might start getting results. Eventually, you would know enough to start writing down the results. They would be written in long hand and given to the secretary. You would do a little smoozing to get priority. After she gave it back typed, you would start editing. Sometimes you needed to add big parts so you would cut the typed paper into sections and paste them to a fresh page with the added words. Mac Tac and graphics artists were used if you needed a figure or a plot. Once you were happy, the memo would be given to management for review and might be changed several times as it went up the chain.
Today, the secretary and the memo don't even exist. Results are continously recorded in emails. The productivity gains have been at least 20 fold for this kind of activity.
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I started a bit late on the investing. A coworker actually signed me up for the 401k. I was 40 before I started to invest after tax money--in the middle of the .com bubble. If I would have started 5 years earlier, I would have made a mint (and probably lost it too). I never sweated the volatility when I was young. Probably don't sweat it as much as I should now.
It is kind of cool to retire into a nice bull market. Kind of hard to get defensive--as I know I should. One of these days.
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You have too many things for that amount of money.
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Today, the secretary and the memo don't even exist. Results are continously recorded in emails. The productivity gains have been at least 20 fold for this kind of activity.
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