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larocag

larocag
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  • If Things Are So Bad, Why Is The Market Going Up? [View article]
    I would ignore me too. Few of the children are able to follow the thread and the points I make are quite a PITA to deal with. But remember, the children grade on a curve that is very favorable to you.
    Oct 31 12:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If Things Are So Bad, Why Is The Market Going Up? [View article]
    James?
    Oct 30 11:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If Things Are So Bad, Why Is The Market Going Up? [View article]
    1. I don't understand business. I don't need to. Even an engineer could estimate how big this effect is. The short component would be the net change in the short ratio over the time period. So sad that everyone wants to sell this info but I am sure that is a few percent.

    One could estimate the size of the effect of the "negative alpha" fund managers. If you knew what fraction of all equities are held by mutual funds at would give you an upper bound on the size of the effect. Of course many of these give the manager little latitude to be stupid--like index funds for instance. Of the fund managers that are free to make major re-allocations, only some fraction of these will be like yourself and act irrationally bearish. One would need to calculate the weighted average of how stupid and how much money each fool manages. I again can't find all of the relevant data but I am sure this gets to be a few % also.

    It is not a "huge" effect.

    2. No matter what the words say you are going to think you are right. You are the guru and I am supposed to swoon and listen. Your exposition teacher would disagree.

    3. You did say when to go short. On Oct 6. You where wrong. How cares when you are going to make your next guess.

    On the other hand, you seem to know how to fire up the children, which is much more important than clear thinking.
    Oct 30 09:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • When Will The Economic Slowdown End: An Experienced Economist's View [View article]
    Eisenhower certainly did. Teddy's pre-Presidential escapades may or may not be considered "something", and acting may or may not be considered something. Sure Reagan was a Governor but then the un-named one was a Senator. Do you have some party pictures that you are not sharing with us?

    I travel quite a bit. I have noticed the debasement trend for a long time. Why don't you plot EUR/USD over a longer time frame and see that the rate of debasement has slowed dramatically since we got a competent President. Your oil going up 17% is a very poor example. Cheap oil means really bad world-wide economic times. Like after the last administration left the country with a lot of debt and a hangover that even Ms Hilton would remember.
    Oct 30 02:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If Things Are So Bad, Why Is The Market Going Up? [View article]
    I guess the Oct 6th article, to short this rally, is a better example.
    Oct 29 10:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Will The Economic Slowdown End: An Experienced Economist's View [View article]
    First celebrity President--Teddy Roosevelt, Eisenhower, Reagan, who are you talking about? How is inflation different from debasement?
    Oct 29 10:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If Things Are So Bad, Why Is The Market Going Up? [View article]
    No #1 says something completely independent of #7. In #1 you are asserting that there is a positive feedback that when the market goes up shorts and fund managers are forced to buy (causing the market to go up more). That I am sure is a relatively small effect. Again much smaller than the impact of #7 the past excessively gloomy outlook. If you are going to make numbered list of reasons why don't you try to state the most significant reasons--and that probably doesn't include meetings.

    The first of your past articles that I spot checked to see if you have been short term positive was Aug 11 when you told everyone to short stocks. That doesn't sound very bullish.
    Oct 29 09:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • If Things Are So Bad, Why Is The Market Going Up? [View article]
    Of your 6 reasons only #5 could account for any fraction of the15% shift and that may or may not be temporary (in the months-long time-frame). You actually said reason 7, probably the biggest factor, but didn't enumerate it as a reason (" the market is rising strongly in the first instance because the consensus was so bearish"). I assume that is because it doesn't fit your bearish position.
    Oct 29 04:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Inflation Update [View article]
    Since you may be the only one the knows the "real" story, maybe you should tell it.
    Oct 29 03:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Inflation Update [View article]
    Eat a lot of cheese? If you think about it, you have to be pretty far down on the economic food chain before the cost of food is a major expense. If you are that poor you need to be paying more taxes and your opinion doesn't matter. Rush will tell you everything you need to think.
    Oct 28 07:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • When Will The Economic Slowdown End: An Experienced Economist's View [View article]
    I'll have to think about that one for a bit. Maybe the Experienced Economist or another member can comment on that.
    Oct 28 04:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Inflation Update [View article]
    It is taking longer than we thought for QE2 to kick-off hyper-inflation. We all know that it is going to happen though. Right?
    Oct 28 04:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Will The Economic Slowdown End: An Experienced Economist's View [View article]
    It is the governments fault for not stopping us. We needed to be regulated more. Who's fault was it?
    Oct 28 02:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Will The Economic Slowdown End: An Experienced Economist's View [View article]
    You have been well reducated. Do you really believe the government caused all of those sub-prime loans. It was the free market. We did it to ourselves. Look at who got stuck holding all of those sub-prime loans: AIG, Citi, Lehmans, do you think they would have bought them if they knew they were government mandated? WAMU, Coutrywide etc made a ton of money selling subprime loans (for a while). They didn't need the gov to tell them to do that. Look at where the housing bust is worst: Arizona, Florida, Vegas. Do you think all of the poor people moved there.

    You guys tell each other these things so many time that you start to believe them.

    And yes Rove did run up a huge debt. That much is true.
    Oct 28 01:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • When Will The Economic Slowdown End: An Experienced Economist's View [View article]
    You want to blame all of our problems on the government. In the real world it is our fault. The government can't solve all of our problems nor is it responsible for creating them. At some points in your article you seem to understand that but then you quickly forget.
    Oct 28 12:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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