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  • Orexigen Soars: Good News Is Heart Data, Bad News Is Data May Be Compromised [View article]
    In the worst case scenario the author is long Arena.
    Mar 4, 2015. 10:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Will Marijuana Stocks React To Election Results In Alaska And Oregon? [View article]
    trabob,

    It doesn't. Blind faith does. WA DC went legal along with AK. The tide is coming in.
    Mar 3, 2015. 04:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orexigen's Contrave data release may have not have been a good idea [View news story]
    Good points all, but the release cleaned out the shorts (for the time being). Hard to argue a 50% pop
    Mar 3, 2015. 04:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orexigen: Contrave Scripts Dip With Sector [View article]
    Doesn't this micro analysis of weekly sales miss the bigger picture? Size matters OREX has the biggest sales force and market potential with positive signs coming out of the EU. Glad I hung in there outlasting the shorts and the Arena fans talking their own book.
    Mar 3, 2015. 11:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Immuno-Oncology Is The Future Of Cancer Treatment: My Money Is On Juno Therapeutics [View article]
    For a sector potentially this broad, I wouldn't expect a zero sum game. But the breakout leader will be the one that (hopefully) successfully applies the technology to solid tumors.
    Mar 2, 2015. 02:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orexigen's Earnings Report Gives Clarity On Future Revenues [View article]
    At the end of the day size matters. The sales force that OREXIGEN has at its disposal should eventually gain the upper hand.
    Mar 2, 2015. 01:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding How Amazon's Use Of Capital Leases Overstates Its Cash Flow Metrics [View article]
    Depreciation is merely a non-cash expense. You don't get to choose to "use" it or not.

    Tax loss carryforwards expire over time.
    Feb 16, 2015. 10:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding How Amazon's Use Of Capital Leases Overstates Its Cash Flow Metrics [View article]
    Don't know what axe you are grinding Paulo, but the point is, you don't have to rely on anyone's interpretation of what FCF is or is not. Use the UCA analysis and the facts emerge.

    Depreciating servers over 3 years is common regardless of whether you are Amazon or Coke. You feel they haven't invested cash flow wisely; which is purely subjective and short-sighted.

    Stating that the only reason book value increases is because shares are given to insiders/employees simply isn't true.
    Feb 16, 2015. 10:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding How Amazon's Use Of Capital Leases Overstates Its Cash Flow Metrics [View article]
    Don't know what axe you are grinding Paulo, but the point is, you don't have to rely on anyone's interpretation of what FCF is or is not. Use the UCA analysis and the facts emerge.

    Depreciating servers over 3 years is common regardless of whether you are Amazon or Coke. You feel they haven't invested cash flow wisely; which is purely subjective and short-sighted.

    Stating that the only reason book value increases is because shares are given to insiders/employees isn't factually correct.
    Feb 16, 2015. 10:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding How Amazon's Use Of Capital Leases Overstates Its Cash Flow Metrics [View article]
    Net worth on the balance sheet of course, is simply the difference between total assets and liabilities. Value, for the investor, is of course what the market says it is.

    FCF isn't a metric that has any value to me because it is too subjective; the UCF approach converts the accrual income statement to cash and reconciles (to the penny) the difference in cash and marketable securities on the balance sheet between two periods.

    In this manner you can accurately calculate actual cash used for CAPEX, cash paid for debt service and operating leases, changes in equity etc. Lenders rely on the approach to finance the debt. You should try it, much more useful tool if you want to understand how much cash operations actually generated to produce net cash income available for all types of financing.
    Feb 13, 2015. 10:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding How Amazon's Use Of Capital Leases Overstates Its Cash Flow Metrics [View article]
    Rental expense for operating leases is expensed on the income statement and capital leases are capitalized on the balance sheet like any other form of debt.

    Run a UCA cash flow analysis to reconcile the difference in cash between any two periods and you will see exactly why cash went from X to Y.

    All of this blather is exactly that.
    Feb 11, 2015. 04:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Restaurant sales show sharp increase in January [View news story]
    Bingo! It's due to falling gas prices. Filling my tank went from a 60 handle to a 40. Being good Americans, we usually put that extra cash to work in something productive like eating out, buying the new Iphone, etc.

    The irony is that the markets went choppy as prices fell, once we figure that out, I believe that the market will climb a wall of worry (Greece, Russia) due to lower gas prices.
    Look for interest rates to rise modestly in the summer.
    Feb 11, 2015. 03:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Open label trial begins to assess Cytori Cell Therapy in meniscal injuries [View news story]
    A natural application of their technology. Let's hope it works for them. Lot of potential in this stock, but little love.
    Feb 10, 2015. 11:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Assessing The Beginnings Of The Orexigen Launch Of Contrave [View article]
    What I like about where we are now is that all that really matters is sales. Not efficacy, not labels, etc.
    Dec 11, 2014. 01:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding How Amazon's Use Of Capital Leases Overstates Its Cash Flow Metrics [View article]
    Lord what a perfect example of people talking up their own book to justify their own preconcieved opinions. My advice Slim is to strap on the big boy pants and actually analyze cash flow the way the pros do in the commercial banks that actually lend real money and have far more skin in the game than any of us. Pros use the UCA approach to cash flow and convert the accrual income statement into a cash flow statement by using the actual changes in the balance sheet (oversimplified). They do not use the sources and uses cash flow statement. To understand any companies cash flow you need to be able to explain the differences in cash on the balance sheet from year to year. This approach reconciles cash between periods.

    I noticed that cash and marketable securities grew by $999MM last year and is down <$5.5Bn> YTD. If you can tell me why, then I would give your analysis more weight.

    Captial leases are just that; capitalized on the balance sheet as LT debt and are treated no differently. Nothing nefarious there. You made that value judgement. It is perfectly understandable to amortize the cost of servers over three years, rather than expensing them as you suggest. Your understanding of capital leases and cash flow is limited at best and as others have pointed, you suggest deception here. You are flat out wrong.

    I call that the CFO doing their job. I am sorry that you feel inconvenienced to look up critical cash flow info in the footnotes, but the books are prepared according to Hoyle. Any banker worth his/her salt ALL READ financials the same way: backwards. Why? because all the good stuff is in there.

    BTW, smart borrowers are loading up on debt because they understand that the opportunity to borrow at these rates is a seminal moment and not likely to return any time soon. Why? because in case you didn't notice, we have been fighting deflation since the crash causing rates to sink to historical lows. Now that the US is producing just over 9MM of barrels of oil a day and OPEC is basically on life support, if we are going to get inflation, we will start to see it next year fueled by low energy costs. It is no accident that AMZN has a shelf filing out there for more debt. The real question is: Is AMZN spending wisely?

    For the record, I have no dog in this fight; have no special relationship with the company, but when I hear people like Steve Ballmer say "AMZN can't make a profit" and "doesn't generate cash flow" it makes me wonder what statements they are looking at and if they know how to read them.
    Dec 11, 2014. 11:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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