Seeking Alpha

danstvguy

danstvguy
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View danstvguy's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • Mortgage Purchase Applications Point To Renewed Housing Bear Market [View article]
    That's right. Jobs up, confidence up, stock market up, interest rates low, inventory tight, foreigners buying = bear market.
    Jan 9, 2014. 12:26 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Zillow: Terrific Short-Term Trade, Terrible Long-Term Investment [View article]
    How difficult is it to recreate what Zillow has? Not too hard.

    You must be an ignoramus or a sarcastic short or both. Just because they don't make widgets, pump oil from the ground, or own brick buildings doesn't mean their business is easy to clone. You could make a better case against Linked-In ....

    They're a SOFTWARE COMPANY! Come-on!
    Mar 6, 2014. 07:09 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Canary In Real Estate's Coal Mine [View article]
    Very simple. Authors come on here, SA, over and over again with catchy and sometimes inflammatory (not this one) titles. In my opinion it is simply to catch eyes and get views. I tend to appreciate more those authors that can go on record as saying they have "skin in the game" and that they invest in accordance with their opinions. In fact I am planning on writing an article and seeing if I could get it posted here .... about a company I am invested in (USG).
    May 24, 2013. 07:38 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Be Very Afraid: Higher Rates Killed Mortgage Activity [View article]
    Markos has never been correct in any of his forecasts of the Real Estate market ... at least in the 3 yrs I've been tracking that sector here on SA. He was bullish at the wrong time and turned bearish (that's right) at probably the worst time ... missing one of the most dramatic and fruitful sector trend reversals I've ever seen. He doesn't seem to disclose any positions so its possible that he hasn't "lost" any money ... although he certainly lost out on an opportunity.

    He, like a lot of the authors here, probably does this gig for the money only.
    May 17, 2013. 08:26 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dumbest Portfolio For The Smartest People [View article]
    "Remember the old Gong Show when if the "artist" was terrible he or she would be booted off at the sound of the gong? "

    I do. But remember how long the MC would keep the lousy act on the air ... how long they'd drag it out? And that was the appeal of the show. Same with CNBC ... They drag out the "buy at any price" Bull pundits like James Altucher and the Chicken Little's like Marc Faber for the theatrics and to fill air time.
    Feb 28, 2013. 08:21 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Housing Set To Strengthen [View article]
    Stop confusing these naysayers with facts.
    May 20, 2014. 11:59 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Housing Market "Recovery" Is A Complete Myth [View article]
    WSD,

    All true but what do "short" and "long" mean these days when the news and opinion flow web sites grade stocks and sectors every single trading day? There is no doubt that the short interest in the home building sector is a red flag .... and provides countless opportunities to capture beta dollars. And if you're a bear (or bull) and a good trader you probably have made money ... and will continue to do so ....

    On the other hand the real story here span years ... And will take years to produce out-sized gains ..... ALWAYS buy home-builders after a sector correction. Put them in a portfolio you don't watch much .... When the shorts start to get fed up with this sector ... and things are more normalized .... that's the time to start selling.

    At the moment I would be careful if I was short ... interest rates are dropping and this next Jobs report can't be worse than last month's.
    Feb 1, 2014. 10:28 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • December Existing Home Sales: The Housing Bear Market Is Back [View article]
    Dave,
    Horton just exceeded every metric on the Q1 earnings report. Please explain how this is bad for the housing market.
    Jan 28, 2014. 07:40 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • December Existing Home Sales: The Housing Bear Market Is Back [View article]
    So true .... The underlying theme of his articles is that home builders, as a stock investment, is better as a long term short .... mainly due to the hangover from the Real Estate Bubble of 2005. The builders I follow are NOT as dumb as he would have SA readers think ..... and they will be profitable for years.
    Jan 26, 2014. 01:36 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Berkshire Hathaway Will Likely Acquire USG [View article]
    Excellent article and spot on. Owning USG is just a test of patience on a part of the stockholder and their faith in an eventual housing and construction recovery. So many other glitzier names out there to own but I'll stay with WB.
    Jan 14, 2014. 08:04 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Housing Rebound Presents 2 Stocks With Profit Potential [View article]
    Jeffrey, I am so glad you are back posting on SA. I want EVERYONE to know this author/investor called for a housing rebound during the deepest days of of the housing bust ... and went on this forum and one-by-one took on insult after insult, snide remark after snide remark and refuted them all with logic, statistics, charts, and facts (things that the SA crowd drools over) ... and everything he concluded and the case he made for a long-term homebuilder investment, was correct .... Thanks Jeff ... I hope you took your own advice back then and got the 2-3 baggers. Perhaps you don't remember me but we had a few side conversations via email about that time. I just wanted you to know that that article of yours is what got me to stay in what has turned out as the best trade of my lifetime and I am not young. I wish you you all the best and hope we continue to hear from you here. Agree with you about Lennar and Pulte ... I'm also into USG ... they are able to make more on less now and won't need 1.6 million housing starts to turn a profit anymore. I also do real estate (I represent buyers) part time along with my day IT job ... more for the insights it brings than the money ... but I AM making money.

    Also want to know what you think about start-ups like Redfin (i work for them part time). They are half tech and half local R.E.agents.
    Jun 18, 2013. 02:36 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • D.R. Horton And The Shrinking Pile Of Cash [View article]
    1) The first red flag just for this latest quarter is that the cancellation rate for FY Q1 was 22%. While lower than last year's cancellation rate of 26%, this means that of the contracts signed on, a little more than 1 of every 5 homes was cancelled during the quarter. This is often because the buyer fails to get financing.

    --- Not sure how much you know about the homebuilding business, especially right now, but when a sale fails these days builders have ready buyers waiting an opportunity for a home they won’t have to wait 6 -12 months for … and frequently the builder can raise the price anyway. Right now builders in Phoenix are raising prices every 5-6 homes sold.

    2) Back in 2005/2006, before the housing market collapsed, homebuilders were running low on cash after having built up massive inventories of finished homes, lots under development and raw land.

    ---This is misleading … in 2004-2005 interest rates were MUCH higher and building was already at normalized levels. These days there is massive pent-up demand … buyers have been waiting to move but many can’t because of job fears, credit issues, or being underwater on their current homes … but that’s changing for the better every month.

    3) One has to wonder what else DHI is hiding beneath the surface of its publicly-reported financial statements.

    ---DR Horton isn't hiding anything. They have been consistently profitable for over 5 straight quarters. I listen to the conference calls and I've neither heard not read about any accounting irregularities. Housing really is not a complex business. But it is cyclical … now its in an up cycle. So its time to get used to it. D.R. Horton just does a better job at managing their business … nothing shady going on here.

    4) I just can't see the justification for DHI investing over $600 million in new housing inventory and raw land when the actual new home sales data is showing a declining trend.

    ---I’m glad you’re not running this company since I am a shareholder. They're investing in land in order to meet increasing demand for homes. Timing is everything in home building and land must be bought while it is cheaper … and in good locations to promote further margin growth.

    By the way new home sales WERE actually up YOY this Dec and average monthly sales were up 18% from 2011 to 2012. 2011 is widely assumed the as “the Bottom.” So 2011 should be the baseline period from which to start measuring period increases. Not sure where you got your chart but this is from the NAHB:

    http://bit.ly/QX7azB
    Jan 29, 2013. 05:06 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Housing Market Update [View article]
    As a realtor I have never heard a client mention "..... concerns about global economic growth. Weakness in Europe has spilled over to global trade, which has caused slowdowns in both Asia and the ...etc" when considering a home purchase. Usually its more job/price related. There is obviously a disconnect between what concerns the investment adviser community and what concerns the average homebuyer. For this sector it is the home buyer and sector news that determines the direction these stocks go. When that stops or retreats they'll pull back.
    Oct 24, 2012. 08:12 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • August Existing Home Sales: Housing's Last Gasp [View article]
    Dave,

    I appreciate your article ... good to understand the thinking of a true "long-term" bear. There are so many bearish types, traders more likely, that pop up here when the housing sector reaches overbought/oversold conditions .... But I believe your articles reflect the positions of those with substantial long term short positions.

    Thanks for that.

    Still I am wondering what other investment hypothesis do you hold to with respect to the broader market? I am not sure, but your statement in one of your comments above:

    "Ya just wait until all those lawyers and accountants start getting fired and laid off".

    seem to indicate that you may have a bearish outlook on the broader economy as well. Is that the case? Your past article from August:

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    would make it seem so. As would your strong bullish outlook on gold.

    But what if the broader economy were to continue to slowly (and perhaps more rapidly than it is currently - @ 2% GDP growth) gain steam? What if job growth and real wages were to start to increase? Would you still see a bearish outlook for housing? Because I believe that this will eventually be the case I am comfortable with my housing positions .... especially at these levels considering they are about 20% off their highs.
    Sep 21, 2013. 10:09 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Housing Weekly - Time To Sell? [View article]
    Thank you for your sympathy but its enough already that I am taking your $ from your short positions.
    May 13, 2013. 07:30 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
202 Comments
106 Likes