Rocco, I too am shorting NFLX and have been shorting NFLX since it climbed up to $300+ and have made a lot of money. I love your analysis because it is sound and based on facts. You can't be responsible for fools, some of whom are leaving stupid comments on your articles, that base their decisions on irrational exuberance. Please do not be discouraged by them. There are several of us that still believe in facts and reality.
This article has too many words with very little substance. It is speculative and gives no sound basis for why NFLX is a "buy". The bottom line is that NFLX does not have a sustainable business model that can generate the types of earnings need to justify the outrageous valuations of 2011. The fall in the stock price was not an anomaly. It was a reflection of the limitations of NFLX. It is not a buy.
Amazon: Great Business, Terrible Valuation [View article]
Great article. I am shorting this stock for the exact reasons you specify. But I am getting nervous. Investors seems to be viewing Amazon like they viewed Netflix and pumped money into it. Some short-sellers of NFLX threw in the towel because its rise was defying logic. I am wondering if the same thing will happen with Amazon. I have not thrown in my towel yet.
Amazon (AMZN) is "a religion stock," writes Barron's, "either you are a believer, or you are not." Barron's appears to be the former, detailing how the stock could jump as much as 25% if Amazon can keep translating its heavy spending into rapid growth in its retailing, Kindle and cloud-computing businesses. [View news story]
I respectfully disagree that Amazon is like Apple. Apple does not have Amazon's astronomical multiple. Apple has continuously delivered high-quality earnings and cash flows. On the other hand, by buying Amazon, we are putting "faith" in an astounding future.
Oppenheimer boosts its price target for Netflix (NFLX +3.5%) to $360 from $280, citing expansion that is transforming its model for global content distribution. Netflix has reached an “inflection point in its higher margin online streaming subscription business,” as strong subscriber growth is coupled with falling subscriber acquisition costs and churn rates. [View news story]
Agreed. Something very fishy is going on with this stock. The big boys keep coming out with declarations for new prices that are not based on reality. Someone is making money off the fools that keep buying this over-hyped stock.
This is too rosy an assessment of NFLX. I don't agree that NFLX has a unique business model. They are merely distributors of content using multiple devices. How hard would it be for cable companies to duplicate what NFLX is doing? How long before iTunes does exactly what NFLX is doing? How long before AMZN follows the trend? And finally, how long before the biggest gorilla of them all, Facebook, follows suit. Sorry, I do not buy this analysis. I am shorting the stock.
He wants to become just like IBM. IBM is everything he wants to become, except IBM does not sell tablets. I wonder if HP will also come up their version of Watson and compete on Wheel of Fortune!
Best Buy Insiders Knew Something You Didn’t [View article]
You haven't defined what you mean by "intensively". In my opinion, a ratio of 5 to 1 for sales to purchases does not represent intensively. Your academic research may very well indicate a positive correlation between insider buying and the performance of the stock, but it does not pass the smell test in this instance.
Financial Reform Will Lead to Deflation [View article]
Nice to see that you have nothing positive to say about the reform. According to you, the banks had nothing to do with the huge pole that sticks out of our rears, and where most of us are still reeling from the worst recession since the depression. You are so disingenuous.
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Amazon: Great Business, Terrible Valuation [View article]
Amazon (AMZN) is "a religion stock," writes Barron's, "either you are a believer, or you are not." Barron's appears to be the former, detailing how the stock could jump as much as 25% if Amazon can keep translating its heavy spending into rapid growth in its retailing, Kindle and cloud-computing businesses. [View news story]
Oppenheimer boosts its price target for Netflix (NFLX +3.5%) to $360 from $280, citing expansion that is transforming its model for global content distribution. Netflix has reached an “inflection point in its higher margin online streaming subscription business,” as strong subscriber growth is coupled with falling subscriber acquisition costs and churn rates. [View news story]
Salesforce.com (CRM): Q1 EPS of $0.28 beats by $0.01. Revenue of $504M (+34% Y/Y) beats by $21M. Shares +7.1% AH. (PR) [View news story]
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Financial Reform Will Lead to Deflation [View article]