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Zach Te Winkel

Zach Te Winkel
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  • Rumored WSJ Piece 'Fed Maps Exit From Stimulus' No Joke After All [View article]
    Agree...a 3-5% pullback likely on this and healthy for continued move higher in 2nd half.
    May 10 10:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • JPMorgan Chase And The Banking Industry [View article]
    Certain banks such as USB and some Other regional banks are not involved in this type of complex trading / hedging. Don't lump all with the bad.
    Jun 28 09:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Though Apple (AAPL) continues to heavily promote Siri - it just hired John Malkovich to do some ads - the voice assistant service, which is powered by Nuance's (NUAN) voice recognition technology, remains a lightning rod for criticism. Disgruntled user Jon Friedman calls Siri a "gimmick for self-indulgent people with a tremendous amount of time on their hands." "Steve would have lost his mind over Siri," a former Apple employee recently told Adam Lashinsky.  [View news story]
    I use Siri for text messaging all the time. If you speak slowly and clearly it is amazing and way faster then typing. Written by using Siri.
    May 25 10:32 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tim Cook Is Calling The Shots At Apple [View article]
    I'm with you Steve, I am sick of English teacher wannabes focusing on English corrections verses discussing the analysis at hand. (which is not necessarily a comment about you Dave, but just something that happens all to much on SA) Also it is the Tim Cook era so what happens now is on his watch and would not happen without his support. People will be saying every good thing that happens is "of Steve Jobs."
    Nov 21 10:06 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Options: Not So Cheap In Real Dollars [View article]
    Also the higher vol. Makes selling / writing discounted puts (such and Jan 2012 295-315 puts) very attractive. You can do this and hedge it a bit by selling / writing upside calls (like Jan 475 calls).
    Sep 13 11:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Attention Bargain Shoppers: The Short Portfolio That Wants To Be Long [View article]
    Rocco, you are right on in the type of option trades to be making right now. While I do not agree with all the picks I think the point of the article is right on.

    With the VIX where it is at now is the time to be writing puts (selling) and writing calls (selling) to collect high premiums.

    AAPL is the best option to do this in right now. For example I am currently long APPL via selling $310 January Puts and Selling $460 Jan. calls. If appl remains between those two price points (which is highly likely) you can make a good amount of return on investment.

    This strategy is the only way I trade currently (typically I look at 3-5 month out options). When you want to go Long (sell downside puts) when you want to go Short (sell Upside calls). If you do this right (when volatility is higher), hedge where appropriate, and stay liquid enough to ride the volatility I believe this is the easiest way to make money in the market.

    For disclosure I am 3:1 on the number of sold puts since I am more bullish on Appl.
    Aug 23 05:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Netflix Is Likely to Keep Punishing Shorts [View article]
    If your going to write and article please check your facts. The Churn rate last quarter actually went up not down. Instead of checking the facts you referenced an existing SA article that was INCORRECT! Here are the issues you are clearly missing:

    1) To say broadband growth will just continue on a straight line up is ridiculous when we know there are physically only 117 - 125 Million households in the US, by your logic everyone will have broadband shortly because of the growth rate. This is just not physically possible or affordable for everyone.

    seekingalpha.com/artic...


    2) This is the same issue with assuming the growth rate for subscribers will just continue on the same path. Please remember that unless Churned customers start coming back in droves (very unlikely) Netflix is going to have a hard time continuing to grow. They have or have had over 50MM of the at best 80-95MM households as customers. If you read the article below you will realize that netflix has "churned / lost" probably almost as many customers as they currently have. Do know why? I do as a past netflix customers..... the content is old and dated and once you've watched what you wanted to see it is not worth it.

    seekingalpha.com/artic...

    3) With the recent price increases churn will only signicantly increase. Go to facebook and check out the comments under their recent announcement. (it should be noted that netlix has deleted a ton of the posts thus the true number of outraged customers willing to spend time writing on facebook's wall is much higher) Two poll's I have seen show about 30-40% of customers saying they will cancel. I also feel more members the netflix thinks will be opting for the 1 dvd at a time option then they think.

    www.facebook.com/home....

    4) Tiered pricing for internet usage is coming, which will cut the quality and increase the cost to consumers to use netflix streaming, this will further increase churn.

    5) Content Costs are skyrocketing and the price increase was required to try to keep up with them. The issue is the increase bring no further value which is why customers are and will continue to leave with the new cost structure.

    www.cnbc.com/id/43747950

    6) Competition is just getting start.

    While I agree it can be hard to stand in front of a bullet train those that have a 6-12 month time frame will be rewarded.
    Jul 14 07:37 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix to Subscribers: Stream This [View article]
    Check out all the negative comments on Netfix Facebook page, over 18000 comments almost all negative, plus the other page created to complain. The comments are just pouring in. I think this change really slows the grow and makes those using streaming plus DVD to move to DVD only due to lack of original / current content or cancel thus cutting margins.

    www.facebook.com/netflix
    Jul 12 11:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix to Subscribers: Stream This [View article]
    I love this, there is a facebook page for pissed off customers.

    www.facebook.com/pages...
    Jul 12 09:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix to Subscribers: Stream This [View article]
    Good article Rocco! This price increase is the second in 8 months. I actually think more customers than they think will opt for the DVD only model. The thing we need to keep in mind is Nflx had timing work perfectly for them. Just as blu ray players were really getting popular and thus many Americans were upgrading from traditional dvd players broadband expanded greatly and blu ray had wireless connections.

    I got a blu ray player for Christmas and signed up for Nflx. A couple months into it I canceled as the selection (while broad in numbers) is mainly older junk. I had the 11.99 option with blu ray DVD movies 1 at a time. I realized since we were mainly just doing DVD's using the red box at our store by our house was cheaper and easier.

    This is why I went short Nflx. I just think their growth exploded due to great timing but will slow considerably just as content costs are sky rocking!
    Jul 12 08:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: What Gives Investors a Reason to Believe? [View article]
    Rocco, another good article. The only thing I can think that keeps this up is the low float and high short interest. An earnings miss and a secondary offering will have this dropping in a hurry. The costs are too high and only rising and competition is just gearing up. If they would direct expense content costs as cash was paid out as they did back in 2007-2009 the numbers would show their true color. Thankfully its not which allows me to short (via selling upside call leaps).

    Zach
    Jul 11 05:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Questions for Netflix's Upcoming Q2 Conference Call [View article]
    Great article. I did submit the following question to their IR group for the next call. "in relation to your historic churn rate can you provide what percentage or number of your current customers are repete customers? ".

    We know that Netflix had roughly 50mm of current plus lost customers at the end of Q1. What we do not know is how many of the churned customers (which totals 29mm over time) are current customers of Nflx. If we assume as high of 50% (which is very high and would be hard to believe but i am giving them the highest possible I could imagine) of the current customers were churned customers in the past then Nflx has or has had 40mm (21mm current plus 19mm churned that did not come back) of the total 70mm households and thus the potential growth simple can not be maintained. I feel this is why Nflx is pushing international growth aggressively but i feel there will be many issues such as broadband costs preventing as aggressive growth as they have seen in the US.
    Jul 10 03:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Questions for Netflix's Upcoming Q2 Conference Call [View article]
    Here is an article that discuss the Churn rate and issue I have with NFLX continuing to grow aggressively.

    seekingalpha.com/artic...

    Either NFLX is going to attract back a lot of "churned / lost" customers or their growth rate is going to start slowing as there are not enough households left to maintain it much longer.
    Jul 10 08:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Questions for Netflix's Upcoming Q2 Conference Call [View article]
    Rocco, I just posted this on the NFLX inside consumer statistic's page. My question would be:

    "Can you provide any color on what % or number of customers you currently have are repeat customers, meaning where they cancelled their service and then reinstated it."

    We know they track this internally and know it like the back of their hand but I am sure they would say (this is not something we track).

    The reason I would want to know this is if we knew that # and we know the historical churn rate we should be able to figure out how many total households are or have tried NFLX. And if we know that we would know what % of the 100MM US households have tried it and what their potential for growth is. For example:

    Q1 customers = 21MM
    Lost customers = 10MM
    repete customers = 2MM
    Totals = 29MM out of 100MM total.

    Rocco, is it possible to calculate how many subscribers have left NFLX based on the churn rate they have provided? I would think so but this is not something I have tried to do.
    Jul 9 07:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: Inside the Customer Statistics [View article]
    I think someone who has more time then me could figure out the following:

    If we know NFLX had 21 Million customers at the end of Q1. And we know the historical churn rate each quarter going back. We could figure out how many total customers have used NFLX. While there have definitely be some that are duplicate users I think this would be an interesting number. For example:

    Current users: 21MM
    Lost Users 10MM
    Duplicate users 2MM (this would have to be an educated guess, say 20% of lost or something like that)
    Total lifetime users = 29MM

    Why I think this is useful is because if we knew they were at 29MM and there are at best 100MM customers in the US we could get a better sense of their potential.

    Maybe this analysis has already been done but I don't remember reading it. Rocco have you ever done any analysis like this?

    I am currently short nxfl and have feel churn rate, lack of unique content, rising costs, and rising competition from the big boys (AMZN, AAPL, and GOOG) will ultimately drive this stock way lower.
    Jul 9 07:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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