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Zach Te Winkel

Zach Te Winkel
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  • Micron DRAM Share: A Rumor Of War? [View article]
    A great update of the research note released by Stiefel Nicholas - PT $47. http://bit.ly/1DJBPq5
    Apr 25, 2015. 05:33 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron DRAM Share: A Rumor Of War? [View article]
    Thanks Jeret and Bill.
    Apr 24, 2015. 08:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron DRAM Share: A Rumor Of War? [View article]
    Thoughts on this potential Threat? http://bit.ly/1KaEMW1
    Apr 23, 2015. 08:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron DRAM Share: A Rumor Of War? [View article]
    That is a big buy! Wonder if it was micron itself or some hedge fund or mutual fund.
    Apr 22, 2015. 11:44 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron DRAM Share: A Rumor Of War? [View article]
    I agree with Allen... To be honest I think it was as much being said to send a message than actually something that will happen in any real significant amount.
    Apr 22, 2015. 10:50 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron DRAM Share: A Rumor Of War? [View article]
    @JasonC - your comments are the safe bet and what history tells us. Those that make a lot in the market understand changes in history / technology. I am strongly in the camp it is different this time and if and when that is proved out we have PE expansion plus expansion of earnings which makes for mister gains. This is why I feel we will see $40 in 12-16 months and $50 in 24 months or less.
    Apr 22, 2015. 07:38 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron DRAM Share: A Rumor Of War? [View article]
    Basco73... Very interesting. William another great article. I love reading your work and I fully agree. $40 in 12-16 months minimum.
    Apr 21, 2015. 05:29 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron Bulls' Worst Fears Have Been Confirmed [View article]
    I don't respond with visceral reactions and neither do most of the smart responders. My point is you are missing why it is different this time compared to the long cycle. The long cycle has had 2-3 years out of 10 with negative earnings. That is the only rational reason for so many of MU's lower valuation metrics. If the we stagnate here and then grown longer term In up cycles a forward PE or 11-12 is more warranted. Tell me why MU is deserving this valuation compared to the market and competitors when they are positioned better than many?
    Apr 18, 2015. 05:57 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron Technology: SSD Price Tipping Point In Sight [View article]
    I would like to hear thoughts from our experts disputing this article and Elisha's comments above.
    Apr 10, 2015. 07:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron Technology: SSD Price Tipping Point In Sight [View article]
    Jaret and Bill, thanks for the explanation. That makes sense now and points to the real long term growth potential along with strong DRAM demand in most segments for years to come.
    Apr 8, 2015. 05:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron Technology: SSD Price Tipping Point In Sight [View article]
    RSA and Bill, your points make total sense.. My follow up would are seagate and western digital innovating to drive HDD prices lower? If not it will be an amazing ride for MU and others (pretty much think of the market value of those two transitioning to MU and others over time). Thoughts on that?
    Apr 8, 2015. 02:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron Technology beats by $0.08, beats on revenue [View news story]
    Jaeger the positive was the early buying on large vol. that is the big boys. Some selling late in the day was probably those who played earnings. Let it play out next week when micron starts buying as well. I think we close next week close to $28.
    Apr 2, 2015. 09:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron Technology beats by $0.08, beats on revenue [View news story]
    Continued.... Price objective basis & riskMicron Technology, Inc (MU)Our price objective of US$40.5 is derived from up-cycle fair value. This is much higher than the historical average multiples (FY15-16E P/E 10-14x vs 10x or below, PBR 2-3x vs 1-2x) given we think that the high margin/ROE will be sustainable. More favorable competitive landscape (competitors' disciplined capex including from Samsung) should lead to stable chip pricing environment and lower cyclical risk (WACC decrease). Thus, EVA should be larger than previous peak-cycle levels while a higher shareholder return is well anticipated given management's commitment to dividend payment for the first time. Downside risks to our PO are: (1) slow deployment of new tech (20nm DRAM, 16nm TLC NAND, 3D), (2) low impact from Inotera (outsourced DRAM, transfer price), (3) FX (yen strength, USD weakness), (4) delay in dividend payment, and (5) competitors' capex increase.Upside risks to our PO are: (1) bigger impact from new tech and Inotera, (2) stronger chip demand from Apple and China OEMs, (3) more favorable competitive landscape (competitors' capex cut), (4) FX (yen depreciation, USD strength), and (5) more active capital retur
    Apr 2, 2015. 08:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron Technology beats by $0.08, beats on revenue [View news story]
    Here is the research note from Bank of America / Merrill Lynch:

    2Q results confirm strong results despite macro concern Micron reported strong 2Q FY15 results (Feb-2015 end; sales $4.17bn, GM 34%, OPM 21%, NP $0.93bn, FD EPS $0.78); see our results first-take report – Good results, guidance; also positive for peers (up-cycle confirmed). The numbers came in better despite the recently rising Street’s concerns (PC, euro, retail NAND, China low-end smartphone). Key contributors are volume (higher bit growth led by NAND) and cost (well-used old tech, weak yen).2H15 solid led by 4Q; up-cycle also likely in FY16We acknowledge muted 3Q momentum led by DRAM (even guidance reveals a decent margin erosion; ASP down to high-single digit vs cost in the low-single digit). That said, we still believe upside to guidance/margin given the better business environment (Samsung - almost all new DDR4 consumed internally for GS6; Hynix - wafer capacity contraction; Apple - 2x larger DRAM contents for new iPhone). 4Q15 and even FY16 will likely present a full-fledged recovery due to bigger impact from Apple and new tech. Our already bullish EPS estimates for FY16-17 are almost unchanged; our FY15E EPS is up 8% due to upbeat 2Q.Current P/E too low at 7x; at least 10x due to high ROICCurrent share price reveals low P/E (only 7x even based on FY15 EPS) or only mid- cycle fair value. We use 10x FY2016E fair P/E for our PO of $40.5 but upside is still seen due to high ROIC, particularly for DRAM (over 30%). Near-term catalysts also look good: spot bottom, upside to consensus, and low level of threat from Samsung.Looks better than SanDisk and InoteraMicron will continuously offer better momentum compared to SanDisk (just a NAND theme given no exposure to DRAM, slow execution of new tech) and Inotera Taiwan (20nm execution, profit shift to Micron under new agreement effective 2016).
    Apr 2, 2015. 08:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron Technology beats by $0.08, beats on revenue [View news story]
    @jaeger888, I agree but that is where they are at. He is very bullish and I think he is saying $50 is reasonable based on his current estimates but will like raise his target after next earning. MU and GILD are my two largest holdings by far :). I have patience.
    Apr 2, 2015. 08:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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