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Zach Te Winkel

Zach Te Winkel
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  • Intel reportedly in talks to buy Altera; shares soar [View news story]
    Anyone holding weekly calls just killed it
    Mar 27, 2015. 03:58 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel, Micron launch 3D NAND line, promise cost/capacity edge (updated) [View news story]
    I would love to hear some thoughts on this by those on SA that are more familiar: EP, Willian, Russ, Jaret, others. Thoughts on this compared to Sandisk's product?
    Mar 26, 2015. 06:05 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron -3.3% following SanDisk's warning (updated) [View news story]
    No I wouldn't sell, i own a lot of MU. The piper note has a PT $41 so I wanted to see what there thoughts were.
    Mar 26, 2015. 11:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron -3.3% following SanDisk's warning (updated) [View news story]
    Anyone have access to the full note from piper today on MU? We really need a quality CFO announcement and a positive outlook on the ER next week.
    Mar 26, 2015. 09:45 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron Technology Welcomes New CFO [View article]
    Does anyone think that the no CFO update could be a sign some big could be in the works? Potential acquisition (Intel?) or merger (Sandisk)?
    Mar 18, 2015. 02:18 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: A Tough Quarter Before A Solid Second Half [View article]
    The blackout period is not there fault it is an SEC rule.
    Mar 17, 2015. 08:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: The Case Of The Missing PE [View article]
    @jager, they are selling everything they can make. They are shifting more from PC to other segments. Most sales are based on contract price.
    Mar 12, 2015. 11:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: The Case Of The Missing PE [View article]
    Unreal we are down this much on Intel
    Mar 12, 2015. 09:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: The Case Of The Missing PE [View article]
    @jaret Wilson, on the DRAM asp I agree, they said PC down up to 12% for Q2 and rest was strong. Should be in line with guidance of DRAM asp being down low to mid single digits.
    Mar 10, 2015. 09:39 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: The Case Of The Missing PE [View article]
    @Electric Phred, I heard a bit different in DRAM pricing. They said PC down up to 12% but rest flat to positive. I think the bigger risk for earnings is outlook. If that is positive and they announce some progress on convertibles and 3D then I think we shoot back over $30
    Mar 10, 2015. 02:03 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: The Case Of The Missing PE [View article]
    Summary of Kipp's Presentation at the Roth Conference. - http://bit.ly/199ehnf

    DRAM - 2015 Similar to 2015 - Seasonal slow down in Q1
    Longer PC Christmas Season than normal (including China New Year) - December PC Demand was pretty high. Next few weeks will see how Q2 looks. 1

    0-12% Pricing down in PC. No pricing pressure in other categories. Server 40+% in '15, Networking 25-30%. Long term trends are intact. Mobile really upgrading quality which is great for DRAM.

    Mobile Phone DRAM 2013 roughly 700mb 2014 1.1-1.4 gig 2016 = 2 Gig+

    NAND
    2015 similar to 2014, pricing coming down same amount as market costs
    Pretty Healthy market a bit more volatility

    70% DRAM overall
    25% NAND - more exposed to component and retail market. Looking to fix this. Late Summer / Early fall introduction of new product to increase margin by 20%

    3D NAND - fairly quite but very excited. Impressive Cost Reduction Technology.

    DRAM - 25% industry Growth. MU will under grow that by a little bit.
    In 2016 plan is to outgrow market
    Excess Space with Inoterra and in Japan. Situated well to grow for 2016 and 2017.

    NAND - Supply to grow 35-45% (market) - uncertainty regarding switching to 3D.
    Plan to grow just under market.

    Gross Margin Expansion?
    - More complex today due to different margin profiles by segment and cost profile
    - Mix is now more important
    - With no mix changing - Driving cost down by high teens %
    - NAND - 25-35% industry cost reduction (non 3D)

    CAPEX Question
    - Capital Allocation is much more flexible / elective - Due to less competitors and competitors being more balanced.
    - CAPEX next year will be much more focused on NAND
    - $4 Billion CAPEX will be likely flat in 2016

    3D NAND - All competitors working on it
    Samsung is only one shipping
    This year Micron and Samsung will be cost Competitive to Planner NAND

    New types on storage Class Memory
    New product type with Servers

    Capital Allocation
    $1 Billion
    Analyst day at $200M
    They are in a blackout period until March 30th - Sounded like still have $800 Mil. left

    Overall pretty positive. But we need to see earnings and outlook to get the stock moving.
    Mar 10, 2015. 12:58 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: The Case Of The Missing PE [View article]
    EP they said on their slides for Q1 ER that DRAM would be flat to down low single digits. I didn't take today as anything new, but maybe I am missing it.
    Mar 10, 2015. 11:23 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: The Case Of The Missing PE [View article]
    Vet, have you tried to write a piece on your idea real time security and sending it to several of the analysts? They obviously have the access to ask. Hopefully micron is working on this.
    Mar 10, 2015. 05:02 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: The Case Of The Missing PE [View article]
    Jason, very valid points, but I think the question is will micron loose in future downturns. I think bill, myself, and others would argue "it's different this time" due to the smaller group of players and the world we now live in. But I think you did nail why the PE is currently depressed. Micron needs to prove through the cycle that is not that case any longer.
    Mar 9, 2015. 09:20 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: The Case Of The Missing PE [View article]
    That would make sense however $MU's PE has been lower than peers for awhile not just recently.
    Mar 9, 2015. 09:09 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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