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  • The S&P500 Is Undervalued, Not In A Bubble [View article]
    Macro, a simple math query on your last "actual growth rate" calculation of 25% for 6/30/13. Either the 8.61 quarterly dividend or TTM dividend of 33.26 isn't 25% over the year ago quarter or the TTM dividend twelve months earlier. What am I missing? thnx
    Jun 29, 2014. 10:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan Has An Ace In The Hole [View article]
    "when you have a zero tax basis all future distributions received are capital gains not ordinary income."

    The above condition would occur after 12-15 years of owning many 5%-7% yielding MLP's. Each year the reported % depletion against your tax basis reduces the total distribution to the taxable component. If there is no more basis than isn't the entire distribution taxable as income. This would seemingly refute the above statement?
    May 26, 2014. 07:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Surfing The Volatility Curve With Jason Wangler [View article]
    Jason, well done. Thanks for showing SA what real research looks like.
    May 24, 2014. 09:38 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Allergan, Not Valeant. It's A No-Brainer. [View article]
    I highly doubt that Warren Buffett ever gets excited about EBITDA multiples above 10 or a 10% return on enterprise capital. At a 21x (<5% return on enterprise investment there is simply no margin of safety. You set up a false choice. Ex a deal AGN could easily return to $100-$120. White knights have shown no interest. They too don't embrace 21x ebitda multiples.
    May 19, 2014. 06:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Noble Corporation: A Solid Bargain [View article]
    previously known as Noble Corp.
    Feb 9, 2014. 08:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Wattenberg/Utica Producer Has 30% Upside [View article]
    Mike another superb post. Gratias.
    Dec 23, 2013. 02:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hilsenrath: Taper on table, but look for dovish guidance change [View news story]
    but employment rose just 83K against a decline in the labor force of 664K. My BLS release says that employed rose 818k and not in labor force declined 268k? Are you using NSA data?
    Dec 7, 2013. 09:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cooperman closes out Apple, opens Comcast, FCX, and HCA [View news story]
    no place on SA for dimwit comments like this.
    Nov 14, 2013. 10:00 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thoughts On The Car Sales Recovery [View article]
    A FRED-ophile always makes clear & cogent points.
    Sep 8, 2013. 10:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Canaccord starts coverage on 10 energy leaders, lists seven as Buy [View news story]
    Isn't the IBD 50 a list of technically strong stocks with EPS momentum. Seems premised on a "body in motion" will remain in motion logic. Relative strength investing without regard for risk/reward ratio.
    Aug 20, 2013. 04:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The S&P500 Is Undervalued, Not In A Bubble [View article]
    A math check question - 12/31/14 - did you capitalize a TTM dividend of $44.08 at an R of 8.50% (3.5% + 5%) less G of 6.429% yielding a S&P 500 price of 2128.85? If there is an Achilles heel to the math it is using a fixed ERP (equity risk premium) of 5% for all periods. Historically, the data indicates that when 10 yr yields are low the ERP is elevated and vice-versa. At March 09 SPX low the ERP approached 7% while today it's ~4%. Nice piece of analysis.
    Aug 7, 2013. 09:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The percentage of the stock market now owned by hedge funds (5%) is the highest since Q2 2008, BofA Merrill Lynch finds in its Hedge Fund Quarterly Report. Hedge funds reduced cash holdings to the Q2 2007 trough of 4.3%, and raised net equity exposure to the Q2 2007 peak of 59%. Their largest exposure is to consumer discretionary stocks (XLY) followed by IT (XLK) and financials (XLF). [View news story]
    The evidence for such a conclusion isn't overly compelling. 5% (or $750 bns of equities) isn't terribly informative. I don't believe hedge funds net long position is at any extremely bullish level. Margins are at record high but the case for regressing 2%-3% points isn't compelling with such firm control of costs and capex. And the SPX is not selling at 19x forward EPS but perhaps 15x. Running for the exits and soaking up money market returns or bond yields is nothing to salivate over. So the above observations are likely to be equally valid a year from now.
    Jun 8, 2013. 05:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Running The Kinder Morgan Tax Obstacle Course [View article]
    Arthur - little wonder why U of Illinois accounting program has been so well regarded for decades.
    May 4, 2013. 09:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Halcon Resources: The Eagle Ford Asset Sale Is A Drop In The Ocean Of Its Debt [View article]
    I'm convinced. How could anyone earning 30%-50% a year ever be wrong?
    Apr 28, 2013. 05:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3M Stays Strong After Reaching 52-Week High [View article]
    I'd like to see a chart where It can be observed that the share price has increased downwards.
    Apr 28, 2013. 08:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment