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Greatcrazyworld

Greatcrazyworld
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  • Buy Potash Corp. For High Dividend Yields And Long-Term Capital Appreciation [View article]
    A note from BMO analysts from 2012...

    Despite the super-sized plans of the Melbourne, Australia-based company, not everyone shares BHP’s enthusiasm about the project’s viability and promised return on investment.

    BMO analysts Joel Jackson and Tony Robson have gone so far as to classify Jansen as the “worst” move BHP could make to get into the potash game.

    “We believe that the best decision for BHP is [to] not build or buy its way into the potash industry, and instead return cash to shareholders,” they wrote in an October note to investors.

    At best, Jansen’s project economics make it a long-term investment that is unlikely to produce revenue for almost a decade, the BMO note claims. With an internal rate of return of just 10 percent at the current potash price of $450 per tonne — or 12 to 15 percent with a $600-per-tonne price — Jansen is unlikely to see a positive cash flow until after 2025, a long time for investors to wait.

    Even worse, according to the analysts, is that with other output expansions coming from existing potash producers, the world is unlikely to need Jansen’s output for at least another decade.

    So what we know has happened in the 3 years since the article is that potash prices have declined by 30%. So the only thesis under which BHP bringing this mine to completion anytime in the near future is that the cost of building mines has decreased by about half the last 3 years. I know for certain that's not the case. Potash Corp. makes a comfortable margin at $300/ton and more than enough to maintain a substantial (in my opinion) 4.7% dividend. BHP on the other hand will take substantial losses year after year at current pricing. So let's not assume that BHP's CEO in incapable of simple math.
    May 31, 2015. 10:11 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Potash Corp. For High Dividend Yields And Long-Term Capital Appreciation [View article]
    Paying a minimal dividend? Since when is 4.7% in this rate environment considered minimal? BHP and K&S started down the path when pricing was far more lucrative. Why when you believe it's going to be a horribly unprofitable business for years (or decades) do you think BHP and K&S are going to be in a hurray to bring their mines with far higher costs to produce to production anytime soon?
    May 31, 2015. 08:12 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fertilizing My Dividend Portfolio With Potash Corp. [View article]
    $46.00 Canadian about 2 months ago
    May 12, 2015. 04:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Agrium cut to Sell at Citi, which expects weakness in retail business [View news story]
    Funny how these guys can pull a number and knock the stock down. So the un-named analyst (I wouldn't put my name to this call either) is guessing that they know Agrium's business better than Agrium knows their business. Cutting it 15% ago on valuation may have had some merit but my prediction is this will be a garbage call by Citi just like so many in the past.
    Apr 22, 2015. 05:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Agrium raises target dividend payout ratio to 40-50% of free cash flow [View news story]
    Good thing Cramer the clown was advising people to stay away a couple months back when it was in the 80's! And yesterday's downgrade from Miller Tabek. If either of them had a clue about this company and the free cash flow it's about to generate (which has been very well known) they might be able to provide investors with useful information!
    Jan 22, 2015. 10:57 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Potash names slip as Uralkali may restart half of Solikamsk-2 mine operations [View news story]
    The official news release from Uralkali.."Currently there is no discussion of the launch of full or partial production in the mine." Where did the author or CNBC or any of the other manipulators get word Uralkali "is preparing to restart mining operations"?
    Nov 24, 2014. 11:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Potash Corporation - Attractive Dividend Hides An Overpriced Stock [View article]
    So based on your target price of say $19 if you subtract the estimated $5-$6 value of their investments in other companies you believe that POT as a whole should be able to be purchased outright for around 10-12 billion dollars...that really is a DRAG! I think your "guess" is incorrect and bordering on absurd but I'll archive the article and we'll revisit in 6 - 12 months. Maybe by then I can dream up a cool acronym for "valuing" the company. In the meantime best of luck with your short!
    Nov 13, 2014. 10:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Potash Corporation: An Excellent Entry Point [View article]
    I'm with you Doug. Doc seems to be a potash hater (I'm assuming by how pissed off he seems he's perhaps short POT). Solid 4% dividend and being pretty much the lowest cost producer still prints money in a $300/ton which seems to be where it's bottomed as pricing is firming and going up in some countries. Lots of talk of over supply but factored into that thesis is BHP's Jansen project which if potash pricing stays down here at $300/ton will never come to fruition. If potash pricing goes up Jansen is still years from production. So long as a company's "one product" happens to be producing the nutrients necessary to feed a hungry world...I'll sleep well.
    Sep 12, 2014. 07:24 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fertilizer estimates lowered at Cowen, Potash downgraded [View news story]
    In the drought when yields were cut the price of grain skyrocketed, farmer incomes were high but with the respect to fertilizer the story was because low yields pull fewer nutrients from the ground less fertilizer would be needed so bearish news for fertilizer. Fast forward to this year with expected massive record yields and the story is because the price of grain is so low...you guessed it...bearish for fertilizer stocks. So the lesson to be learned is that regardless of yield and amount of nutrients pulled from the ground it's never good news for fertilizer...what a joke!
    Sep 9, 2014. 01:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Growing Capacity And Further Price Decline Are The Main Threats For Potash Miners [View article]
    I am curious and must ask. It is assumed by the author that potash pricing will remain pressured and likely flat...an assumption shared by many. It seems to also be assumed that BHP will forge ahead...finish their mine and bring a lot more capacity into the market further pressuring prices. Is the assumption that regardless where potash pricing is and regardless whether BHP can turn a profit that they will complete the project and bring the product to market? Can they turn at profit at $300/ton?
    May 22, 2014. 12:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CVR Partners: Unplanned Plant Shutdown Lowers Production [View article]
    I followed the potash situation with great interest and have read all available articles. Everything I've read suggests potash prices could be cut by 25% from $400 to $300. Your article is the first I've read that suggests the price will be cut by twice that amount to $200. Can you explain how you arrive at that number?
    Aug 5, 2013. 02:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Most Undervalued Large-Cap Stocks By Target Price [View article]
    Four stories down and also published today is an article stating price targets from BMO at $61...Deutsche Bank at $62...JP Morgan at $64...and Credit Suisse at $68 so I'm just curious where you got the "lowest price target of $72"?
    Jan 19, 2013. 03:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Mosaic For Attractive Valuations And Upside Potential [View article]
    Agrium is now a 2% dividend not 1% but I guess if the intent is to make Mosaic look better there's no sense having facts mess up a good story.
    Jan 3, 2013. 05:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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