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  • Apple iPad Sales May Surprise In FY 2016 [View article]
    Global economy collapses .... iPad sales rise ...

    Yup, sounds feasible.
    Feb 24, 2015. 07:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 Earnings Multiples At Market Peaks [View article]
    By almost every measure the market has never been more expensive.

    That won't stop the sheep from piling in though ... and being slaughtered.
    Feb 24, 2015. 01:04 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD Drops 1.78% After FOMC Lockhart's Confident Florida Speech [View article]
    Smart investors know the U.S. economy isn't as strong as portrayed by the Fed. Any rate rise will be short-lived, assuming there's one at all. Added to which, Dollar strength is negative for the economy and will cause the inflation target to fall well short of 2%.
    Feb 15, 2015. 01:55 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Go Long SPY Now - Market Turn At Hand [View article]
    The market is almost back to its all-time highs so this is a good reason to buy?

    The Greek election IS a big deal still because we don't know the result. If Syriza gets in it's anybody's guess what will happen from there. The Germans say that they'll happily kick the Greeks out and it won't be an issue but that's a bluff if ever I saw it. It is massively problematic for both the ECB and the IMF who will wear huge losses if the Greeks leave the Euro and it will be so for the banks too.

    The Dollar rally, if maintained, can easily destabilise the entire EM bloc of countries which would impact financial markets in a big way. SWhichever way you slice and dice this, the prices of financial assets have never been this distorted in our entire history. It will end badly .... eventually.
    Jan 23, 2015. 07:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bottom In Gold Likely To Be Below $770 [View article]
    hobart16, I feel as if I need to clarify a few myths that you've offered up. I wouldn't normally be bothered but the amount they get repeated by peaople is irksome:

    Capital on the sidelines: what is this 'capital'? I think you mean cash. There is a difference. Anyhow, the first point is that nothing is ever on the sidelines - it is always doing something i.e. if it's not being lent to a bank (via deposits) it'll be invested in something. I'll go out on a limb and say that the amount of cash currently stuffed under peoples' mattresses waiting to be invested in AAPL stock is inconsequential. Equally, if I have $1m burning my hole in my pocket (let's say this is 'cash on sidelines') and I put it to work by buying stocks then, by definition, someone must be selling stocks (to me) and will then have cash amounting to $1m. Therefore it is 'a wash'. This cash on sidelines business is nothing but twaddle trotted out by clueless financial media pundits. It's a credibility destroyer par excellence.

    The oil & gas situation is "bullish" for worldwide GDP: how can this be the case? Is the purchase of oil not included in GDP numbers? Of course it is. If I have a $100 to spend per week, whether I choose to spend it all on a tank of gasoline or a meal at a nice restaurant makes no difference to GDP. The effect on GDP is the same. GDP doesn't change - where the cash is spent changes, that's all. This is another line plucked straight from the mouths of clueless pundits.

    My advice: start thinking for yourself rather than swallowing the garbage spouted by an ignorant media. Bare in mind too, that when the GFC broke in 2008 not one mainstream financial newspaper had a clue what was going on or was able to explain accurately to its readership what was going on (that includes the FT, WSJ, AFR etc etc).
    Jan 5, 2015. 02:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Stock Market Overvalued? Estimating Returns To 2020 And Beyond [View article]
    SA really is full of unreconstructed bulls. If only there were balanced and intelligent debate every once in a while.

    There are warning signs all over the place that something isn't right in the market and yet there remains a huge bunch of Kool-aid suppers hanging round in these parts. By pretty much every measure stocks are over-valued, while credit, commodities, yields and inflation break-evens are screaming that a large drawdown is imminent.
    Jan 5, 2015. 02:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed Abandons Stock Markets In 2015, Watch Out [View article]
    Salmo, this guy Brofman has posted this exact post in at least two other places that I know of. He is full of BS. I've corrected him as you have but he doesn't respond. He's like a dog - does his business in a place and then leaves it there.

    The worst of it is though, he gets several 'Likes' from people. Shocking the ignorance.
    Jan 5, 2015. 02:17 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Coming Bear Market In 2015: Why There Will Be No Happy New Year Before We See QE Reloaded [View article]
    That logic reads as follows:

    I went to the restaurant intending (as I normally do) to order a vegetarian meal but as there wasn't one available I ordered the double beef 'n bacon burger instead.

    Sorry, it simply doesn't stack up. If you choose to invest in bonds its for a very good reason. You don't just say: oh well, I'll just invest in equities instead.
    Dec 31, 2014. 10:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Coming Bear Market In 2015: Why There Will Be No Happy New Year Before We See QE Reloaded [View article]
    In the end, the market will crater. Of that there can be no doubt:

    Interest rates cannot go any lower, profit margins have peaked, revenue growth is flat to negative, the stock buy-back scam is coming to an end and oil prices and bond yields all point to an imminent recession. Oh, and economic growth is cratering in just about every other part of the world.

    You need to be a rocket scientist to figure this out.
    Dec 30, 2014. 04:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Coming Bear Market In 2015: Why There Will Be No Happy New Year Before We See QE Reloaded [View article]
    Guardian's comment is truly diabolical. Either that or it's a bad joke.
    Dec 30, 2014. 04:22 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Coming Bear Market In 2015: Why There Will Be No Happy New Year Before We See QE Reloaded [View article]
    Lance, your comments are, quite frankly, staggering.

    The true money supply has in fact doubled in the last 5 or 6 years. Just stop drinking the Kool aid and head to the St. Louis Fed website. All the data is there for those wishing to do their homework properly.
    Dec 30, 2014. 04:19 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dallas Fed Fisher's Prescience And GLD [View article]
    I think you may have picked the top in stocks.
    Dec 30, 2014. 03:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dallas Fed Fisher's Prescience And GLD [View article]
    Despite the strong GDP number being boosted by healthcare insurance spending (Obamacare) I wonder where this leaves the Fed now? (Other than in a tight spot).

    They certainly can't afford to raise rates so what excuse will be wheeled out to avoid the first rise? Mmmmm..

    The US's future of course at this point looks much like Japan's - endless ZIRP and rounds of QE leading to nothing but economic malaise. The good news, however, is that Japan's economic implosion and the imminent demise of the Yen means that the U.S. will not be allowed 25yrs of failed monetary policy to run its course. Keynesianism will be utterly discredited and gold will go through the roof unless there is immediate monetary reform.
    Dec 28, 2014. 05:08 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD Breaks, Are We Now Entering That Last Leg Down? [View article]
    It's pretty clear that the Russians and the Chinese (along with unspecified others) are in the process of trying to corner the physical market. If you accept that western central banks are in the game of trying to suppress the gold price (which they have been doing, on and off, for decades) then supply would have to increase substantially to head off Chinese efforts. Fact: Chinese FX reserves could buy the entire world's central banks' gold reserves 3x over. That's a chilling thought. The Chinese could crush the dollar and the U.S. economy without even going to war.

    The West have been merrily supplying the market i.e. the Chinese for some time now but how long will it continue? At some point they will balk at supplying any more physical and that's when the price of gold will go parabolic. An increase in gold mining supply is irrelevant - only the discovery of alchemy will have a material effect.
    Dec 23, 2014. 08:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD Breaks, Are We Now Entering That Last Leg Down? [View article]
    Your logic is somewhat flawed. Oil may be cheaper but capital has fled the mining sector so new capacity is hardly going to boost supply anytime soon. Just because oil is cheaper does not mean existing mines are going to produce gold faster or in greater amounts either. And then there's the depressed price to consider - hardly an incentive to increase supply.

    Additionally, you make the fatal mistake of viewing gold as a commodity rather than money. The available supply of gold is all the gold that has ever been mined i.e. circa 175,000 tonnes, so an uptick of 10 or 20% in annual production is barely going to move the dial. Yours is a common mistake and an infuriating one given how obvious it is.
    Dec 22, 2014. 08:01 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment