Seeking Alpha


Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View nooseah's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Gold Will Bottom Soon - What Do You Need To Know? [View article]
    I'd be inclined to ignore anything you see on CNBC. It's nothing but a stock-pumping channel whose viewership is declining faster than the gold price right now.

    Occasionally they get someone interesting on for 'balance' but otherwise you'd do better getting your financial info from the New York Post.
    Sep 30 05:20 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Precious Metals Prices Fall: Gold At A Critical Juncture [View article]
    One of the more popular fallacies is that paper can win over physical.

    This is complete BS as, while derivatives can certainly hold sway over a period of time, physical will eventually win out by virtue of simple economics i.e. the cheaper a product/commodity is the greater the demand.

    In addition $1,200 per ounce is a critical level for gold miners given their all in costs. At this point, not only will capital stop flowing into exploration and development of new prospects, existing mines face mothballing or closure thus reducing supply. This will lead to upward price pressure in the medium term.

    But the Ace in the pack is that both China and Russia know that they can get the US in an economic vice by cornering the gold market. In other words, by driving up the cost of gold through a physical corner they can effectively crush the dollar and end the dollar's reign as reserve currency. Forget nukes and hot wars, influence can very easily be waged economically. Will the West be prepared to supply gold to the Asians ad infinitum in order to keep the price suppressed? I doubt it.
    Sep 30 08:27 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Will Bottom Soon - What Do You Need To Know? [View article]
    You are extremely naive. While I prefer to trade the markets as though they aren't manipulated, gold is a currency, and it is therefore 'manipulated'.

    Perhaps you prefer the word 'intervention'? This word is used in the mainstream media all the time, as in: "The central bank of ____ intervened today ....". If you've never heard that phrase before you are too young or ill informed to be trading the markets.

    Go to Google (or your preferred search engine) and type in 'London Gold Pool'. You'll learn quickly that way ..
    Sep 30 06:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Will Bottom Soon - What Do You Need To Know? [View article]
    Steve Hochberg reckons the gold bear market will resume toward the end of the year. As fellow Elliott Wavers where do you sit with his view given you're more of the opinion that we're near a bottom?

    Sep 30 12:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tugging On Shiller's CAPE: How It Should And Shouldn't Be Used [View article]
    Agreed. One shouldn't necessarily use CAPE to predict market tops...

    Especially as there are so many other more effective methods to do this. To my knowledge, all these others point to a market top at the present time.

    And as DatIB says above, the circumstances that you describe to debunk the CAPE/market top call are materially different today i.e. rates are at zero and can only go one way. The market is priced for perfection which means a very asymmetric risk profile in stocks.
    Sep 29 10:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's About To Release The Kraken And It Has A Very Long Tail [View article]
    The problem with such a strategy, as any decent brand management book will tell you, is that you risk weakening the brand appeal through product saturation.

    In fact, adopting such a strategy would almost certainly lead to exactly that, at which point the premium the company have charged in the past will be eroded away entirely.

    Apple should remain focused on what it does well, avoid becoming 'mass-market everything' and accept the fact that it is no longer a growth company.
    Sep 29 10:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Now That The iPhone 6 Is Out, Time To Put Down The Apple Kool-Aid [View article]
    I'm with you. It's hilarious. I especially love the following 'reasoning' by the Apple cult (something I've read on numerous occasions):

    "I have an iPhone, my mom has an iPhone, there are three iMacs in the immediate family PLUS a Mac Air and 5 iPods ..." therefore "... AAPL stock is a BUY!"

    How is that statement reasonable or indeed logical? Perhaps some analysis of whether the stock is cheap or expensive may not go amiss ... but no.
    Sep 29 09:35 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • European Commission Tax Probe Could Cost Apple Billions [View article]
    Deary me, phones that bend like cardboard, faulty operating systems, costly tax settlements. Sounds bullish to me!

    AAPL to $160 (by April 2015). Yay....
    Sep 29 09:18 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Precious Metals Prices Fall: Gold At A Critical Juncture [View article]
    Perhaps we've already endured the "death by a thousand cuts" bit and, washout or no washout, we're actually pretty close to the bottom?

    Report out by the CEPR today effectively saying the global economy is doomed: spiralling debt vs slowing economy and no way out except keep rates "very low" for a "very, very long time".

    In other words, Fed talk of a rate hike is complete baloney and negative real rates (which is what "low rates" amounts to) will be somewhat good for gold I'd say. At least, it'll be good for gold once investors wake up to the reality which they clearly haven't done just yet ...
    Sep 29 09:15 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Precious Metals Prices Fall: Gold At A Critical Juncture [View article]
    From the COT:

    Users/ Producers are net short (miners' hedging?) although longs did increase (users hedging?) by more than shorts.

    Swap dealers (bullion banks) are net short although they decreased shorts and increased longs recently. I think they are almost always naturally short.

    Hedge funds are net long although they reduced longs and increased shorts in the most recent period.

    Clear as mud then ...
    Sep 29 07:38 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Precious Metals Prices Fall: Gold At A Critical Juncture [View article]
    Let's hope it's lower. The sooner the 'washout' arrives the sooner we can get on with the next bull market.

    Keep your powder dry folks. The stronger dollar is a head-fake. The true money supply has increased by $5 trillion since 2008 and the US economy has done nothing more than tread water.
    Sep 29 07:20 AM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Will Bottom Soon - What Do You Need To Know? [View article]
    It would only take the failure of one of these ETFs to cause the entire Metals ETF business (and possibly others) to crater. All confidence would be lost and future ETFs would have to be much more structurally robust to draw back any investors.

    To expand on one of the points Avi made, these metals ETFs are effectively fractionally reserved and purport to own much more gold than the fund suggests, thereby exaggerating the true supply of the metal.
    Sep 29 02:16 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Holder’s departure could signal end of big mortgage cases [View news story]
    Think yourself lucky. Merrill, Goldman, Morgan Stanley and Citi should all have been nationalised. That would have left shareholders with nothing.

    Instead, Hank and his cronies bailed you out.

    Quit complaining as after the next crisis you may not be so lucky ...
    Sep 26 03:59 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Real Reason Stocks Tanked [View article]
    Isn't it funny that there always has to be a reason for a market sell-off...

    So the mainstream media searches the headlines for some obvious negative news then attributes that news as 'the reason'.

    In all my life I have never seen a headline read: "Market declines after becoming 'overbought'".

    In other words, there are plenty of technical reasons why a market might sell off or rise after a decline but none of those instances will ever be reported as such.
    Sep 26 03:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What 'Bendgate' Means For Apple [View article]
    I think they should just leave the phone as it is and come out with a clever marketing campaign around bananas. Problem solved!

    And when they bring out this TV (presumably as bendy) the thrust of the marketing campaign can be that it can get around tight corners.

    Too easy.
    Sep 25 05:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment