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  • George Soros Increases His S&P 500 Put Position [View article]
    There are numerous reliable sources on the internet. Often bloggers re-posting research they've sourced from investment banks (all the usual suspects). I don't think any of the above claims are in the least bit controversial -- not even the bulls would refute any of it, except to say: the recovery is just around the corner (ad infinitum).

    Just type what info you want into a search engine and lo and behold...
    May 21, 2015. 08:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • George Soros Increases His S&P 500 Put Position [View article]
    Anyone who doesn't have some kind of insurance in this market has no business being in it and anyone who believes the Fed can keep it propped up indefinitely has a lower-than-room-temper... IQ.

    Corporate earnings have been deteriorating for several months now and companies are engaging in ever more aggressive rounds of stock buy-backs in order to keep share prices propped up -- in other words, instead of investing in future expansion, production etc, management are engaged in destroying their firm's capital (by using shareholder funds to buy over-valued stock).

    At the same time corporate debt levels are going through the roof to fund these activities. Those with an undertsanding of the way a capital structure works will know that equity holders are being 'crammed own', slowly but surely. If it were to continue on its current path there would be no equity capital left as enterprise values collapse and the debt holders become inevitably find themselves the real owners of the assets.

    But to all those who can't see what's really unfolding: please carry on buying stocks. Charles Darwin would approve.
    May 20, 2015. 07:01 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SPY Near Record High While ECRI's WLI Rises To 30-Week High [View article]
    People who go long the SPY here should be committed to an asylum.

    The way to look at this is through a risk-reward lens i.e. upside versus downside - it is currently so assymetrically situated it isn't funny. Stock markets are clearly forming a top at the moment (so perhaps 5-10% upside from here max). The downside? Huge. Pick a number.

    Earnings have peaked and so have profit margins. Earnings have been flattered by financial engineering (stock buybacks), levering up of corporate balance sheets and accounting gimmicks, all of which cannot continue for ever. Oh, and stock margin leverage is at its highest levels in history, making the probability and magnitude of an accident that much higher again.

    The true employment picture is way worse than official numbers, the housing market is far less affordable than it was just a few years ago, rents are much higher, wages have stagnated and household leverage remains just below all time highs.

    Take off the rose-tinted shades and take a look at the hard math. Your conclusion was written long before you did the analysis, which was cherry-picked to fit.
    May 4, 2015. 06:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD: Something's Gotta Give [View article]
    Where's Avi Gilbert, by the way? Waiting for the market to do something that will confirm his last call?
    May 4, 2015. 06:17 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD: Something's Gotta Give [View article]
    There are around 3 contrarian trades in the world today after the liquidity driven melt-up in just about every asset class known to man:

    - gold
    - coal
    - a handful of 'toxic' stock indices (Russia, Greece and Cyprus, among them)

    That something will happen is a given. It is only a matter of time.

    As any smart investor will tell you, you don't make money running with the herd.
    May 4, 2015. 06:16 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Here's Why The Stock Will Take Out $140 Before The End Of May [View article]
    Stock Buybacks = financial engineering, nothing more, nothing less.

    In other words, companies overpaying for their own stock - great for management who bank massive bonuses but not so great for shareholders who will be left holding the bag in the end.

    Instead of investing profits in future production, companies are handing it back by levering up their own balance sheets and overpaying for their stock. That's known as capital destruction, but most AAPL bulls have no idea. It's simply: "To inifinity and beyond!"

    Good luck with that.
    May 3, 2015. 11:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: What's A Proper Buyback? [View article]
    What you are missing Hannes is that the high growth you refer to is not sustainable, which is why the market ascribes a much lower valuation to the stock. Think about it carefully, are you really smarter than the market?

    Additionally, if you and the rest of the AAPL bulls were to step outside your AAPL bubble every once in a while you'd discover that the world is descending into its first ever synchronised recession -- hardly bullish for a consumer products company. Or perhaps Tim Cook will turn the company into a hedge fund and short the market?
    Apr 1, 2015. 10:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: What's A Proper Buyback? [View article]
    A constant stream of buy-backs is AAPLs only hope of price appreciation from current levels.

    Like many other major companies AAPL is merrily consuming capital by buying its own over-valued stock. When the Sheeple eventually realise what's going on it'll be too late.
    Mar 31, 2015. 05:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Samsung S6 Will Keep Up Competition With Apple [View article]
    If you believe Apple is going to $179 I would start preparing yourself for severe disappointment or worse, a life of abject poverty. AAPL has done well to get to $123 and the market is topping out at the moment. Ahead of us is a crash that will make 2008 look like a children's tea-party .... and AAPL will not be untouched in the carnage.
    Mar 25, 2015. 08:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold ETFs see outflows in March [View news story]
    These flows really have very little to do with the price of gold and everything to do with meeting the insatiable demand of China and other Asian nations. Once ETF holdings are drained will western Central Banks step into the breach? If they don't, the gold price is going to head north with indecent haste.
    Mar 24, 2015. 09:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Evans: Fed's biggest risk is hiking too soon [View news story]
    Most intelligent people, of course, will have spotted by now that a 0.25% rise will make no difference whatsoever to the real economy. It's the damage it will do to financial assets (i.e the massive bubble we're in) that worries the Fed so much - in other words, they are trapped.

    So, what to do? Keep rates at zero 4EVA and pray to the gods that the bubble doesn't burst of its own accord (which it will) or just try a leeeetle rate rise and see if the baby throws all toys out of its pram ...

    Central bankers are living on borrowed time and the sooner they are all swept into the sea never to be seen again, the better for all citizens of the world.
    Mar 19, 2015. 08:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Samsung S6 Will Keep Up Competition With Apple [View article]
    How are all ye Apple stock bulls these days?

    Still buying with a $200 target in mind?

    Still have all retirement savings invested in one company?
    Mar 17, 2015. 09:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will The Next FOMC Meeting Bring Down GLD? [View article]
    Huh? The US economic data has been weak and getting weaker.

    The only data that has shown any strength is the hopelessly unreliable NFM - which is a lagging indicator, thus the disconnect with the rest of the declining US data.

    Since July 2014, the DXY (USD) has risen 25%, during which time Gold has declined 12.5%. You don't need to be an Ivy League scholar to recognise that gold has actually held up reasonably well on a relative basis.

    Treasury yields have been rising but the 30yr has had a big reversal in recent days peaking at 2.84% ... now 2.68%.

    A rate rise is by now fully baked into the gold price and only the prospect of several more rate rises will impact gold. The idea that the Fed will do more than one or two rises in total (if any at all) is laughable.

    And just FYI: the gold bull market that began in 2001 started a day after the Fed did its first rate rise ....
    Mar 16, 2015. 08:27 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold - The Oversold Commodity That Is Worth Picking Up [View article]
    Gold is only in a down-trend against the Dollar. Against virtually every other currency it is in an up-trend.

    Ergo, gold's price is purely a $ phenonemenon and not an issue with the metal itself.

    Gold's low point just prior to the start of the last bull market in 2001 coincided with the first of the Fed's rate increases. After that gold headed north in lock step with rates.

    For short-term trading wait to see if the metal tests last year's low of $1141. If it trades through that level and sticks it then another $80 drop could be in the offing. If a higher low is set then that is more likely to be short-term bullish.
    Mar 9, 2015. 09:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bottom In Gold Likely To Be Below $770 [View article]
    You fall into the ultimate Keynesian trap:

    C'mon people spend, spend or GDP will suffer!!

    How about a little saving for a change? You know, investment. Without saving and investment there cannot be any spending. Eventually we'll reach debt saturation and there'll be no spending at all.

    Surely this is obvious.
    Mar 9, 2015. 09:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment