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  • Less Pain, More Gain [View article]
    You are absolutely right - the average man in the street is clueless before a major drawdown, however, there are numerous tools available that will warn you well in advance that problems are building.

    When I was working on Wall St back in 2005 all we could talk about (at least in bond trading - I can't speak for the rest of the bank) was the coming financial crisis - it built up in waves, warning signs everywhere, in tandem with ever tightening credit spreads. It was simply a matter of when, not if.

    There are huge problems facing us once again which will be met, no doubt, by money printing on a massive scale -- so if you've predicted Dow 36,000 by 2020 you're probably not far wrong. Mind you, it will be the equivalent of Dow 6,000 (in today's money).
    Sep 3, 2015. 07:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Less Pain, More Gain [View article]
    That may be true but it doesn't help you if you remain the market before a 50% fall.

    Sure, if you fell asleep in June 2007 and woke up in December 2014 you'd probably be quite happy with how your portfolio looked but it won't always be the case that the market bounces back after a catastrophic collapse (at least, not in 'real' terms).
    Sep 3, 2015. 12:10 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Manchester United has 659M reasons to hire an IT specialist [View news story]
    The 659m 'followers' claim is a complete fraud. If you think about it, the number itself is completely implausible given that it represents a substantial proportion of the entire global population, including (if it's not obvious) all women and children/babies etc.

    The way the club did their survey was to ask people if they 'recognised' the name/brand. If the answer was 'Yes' then they were deemed a 'follower'. Equally, the sample representing the entire population could have been skewed by simply conducting the survey among a small sample in a football-mad nation and then extrapolating for the entire globe (which is precisely what happened).

    I am staggered they haven't been 'called out' for this. If we actually had any 'real' journalists left in the mainstream media, this is what would have occurred by now.
    Sep 2, 2015. 08:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Citigroup: A Buy Opportunity In The Financial Sector [View article]
    The C share price has barely changed since the GFC but I guess you could always live in hope that things improve 'one day'. The truth is that this behemoth's 'well' was poisoned back then and it is no clearer today to what extent their balance sheet has been cleaned up. In addition, a lot of the most profitable activities of yesteryear (bond trading, securitisation etc) have become substantially less so as the regulatory pinch starts to hurt as well as the more stringent Basel III comes into play.

    After nearly 7 miserable years of stock performance (the stock is still down 90% from its pre GFC peak), surely there are better prospects out there.
    Sep 1, 2015. 07:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks back in retreat mode [View news story]
    Ya don't say. Stocks butting up against a major resistance level, pull back.

    Where to now?

    Only a prize chump would fail to see this Ponzi bubble for what it is.
    Sep 1, 2015. 08:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will GLD Resume Its Decline? [View article]
    There is no "market" ... just trillions of dollars of intervention, which will continue ad infinitum until the currency is destroyed.

    Were the real market left to its own devices it would enter an adjustment phase that would make the 1929 crash look like a mild correction.
    Aug 31, 2015. 05:32 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Morgan Stanley's 27 stocks to buy on the dip [View news story]
    My mother-in-law bought a few stocks after Monday's carnage and is feeling very pleased with herself. I think she secretly thinks she's related to Warren Buffet.

    I didn't have the heart to tell her that buying stocks here is going to lead to tears. This is as clear a warning as you're going to get that we are headed into a bear market. Dip buyers are picking up nickels in front of a steam-roller. Happens every time.
    Aug 29, 2015. 04:12 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Best Tasting Bear Ever? [View article]
    OMG. Really?
    Aug 25, 2015. 03:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Best Tasting Bear Ever? [View article]
    If you thought Apple was cheap at $134 you'll be loving it down here. Just carry on buying those dips folks ... All the way down ... down ... down.

    To the pros it's known as "catching a falling knife". To the muppets it's known as the ever-cheapening bargain (until the money runs out and there's no ammo left to buy it when it hits the bottom). But hey, at least you averaged in ...
    Aug 25, 2015. 03:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Global rout continues as Asian markets open lower [View news story]
    Heeeey! Where are all those stock bulls telling us 'realists' what a bunch of pinheads we are? Funny how they just disappear from the boards all of a sudden ...
    Aug 24, 2015. 12:47 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple hire from Tesla points to continued car-team buildout [View news story]
    Don't confuse companies and brands. Apple is a brand first.

    ... and the company's market is already mature. The smartphone / tablet market is absolutely saturated. Bear in mind too that Apple's profits are predicated on people paying a premium for their product -- fine in a booming economy with emerging populations becoming wealthier but AAPL will suffer by not having a 'value product' during tough economic times (there is global recession dead ahead of us with China in the vanguard).

    So, what does Tim Cook (and future management) do to grow profits in a highly competitive market? Apple Airline? Apple Wedding dresses? Apple film studios? You get the picture ...
    Aug 22, 2015. 06:25 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Winning The Smartphone Upgrade Race In China [View article]
    Hark! Is that the sound of amateur analysts fiddling while Apple burns?

    Seriously though, there is a global depression (not recession) on deck and you're discussing who may or may not be winning 'The smartphone race' in China? China is a basket-case. China is sliding rapidly into the abyss. It is finito.
    Aug 22, 2015. 03:03 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple hire from Tesla points to continued car-team buildout [View news story]
    Surely the 'Apple Car' is peak hubris. Tesla is a basket case, accorded waaaaay too much credibility by the market. Is this where the AAPL brand begins its long decline?

    Nothing lasts forever - no exceptions.
    Aug 21, 2015. 09:45 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold mostly ignored as money flees stocks [View news story]
    Sentiment towards gold is still near all-time lows so to expect the sheeple to suddenly wake up and pile in is naive in the extreme. Gold's time will come when the sheep realise that 'rate normalisation' is never coming and that money printing (QE 4Eva) is what lies ahead of us.

    Debasement for as far as the eye can see is pretty much the sum total of central banks' box of tools. They can pretend as much as they like that they have 'several' options open to them but that is just a crock and anyone who believes that garbage deserves what's coming to them.
    Aug 21, 2015. 09:41 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple raises record debt Down Under [View news story]
    It is very simple, chumps. Because the penalty rates for repatriation of foreign profits is so high the company borrows money in the various jurisdictions in which it operates and off-sets these borrowings against earnings in those countries thereby reducing effective rates.

    In other words, more financial engineering from a company that is meant to be engaged in producing leading-edge consumer products. Or is AAPL a hedge fund? I'm beginning to lose track.
    Aug 21, 2015. 08:21 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment