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nooseah

nooseah
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  • A Historical S&P 500 P/E Analysis And Why Current Valuations Are Justified [View article]
    My advice to you, sir:

    Buy the dip

    The advice to me:

    Re-set shorts on the bounce
    Oct 21 08:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Reasons To Buy Stocks Now Before A Strong Year-End Rally [View article]
    Evidently.
    Oct 21 02:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Reasons To Buy Stocks Now Before A Strong Year-End Rally [View article]
    QE isn't going to have the same positive effect forever. At some point investors are going to grow weary and lose faith in the ability of QE to deliver any economic growth. Anybody with a frontal lobe knows, of course, that QE cannot create growth but it certainly can exacerbate wealth inequality, so it's imperative that the PR machines around the world central banks try to control the truth around what QE really does.
    Oct 20 07:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Gold Market Is Going Insane [View article]
    What is slowly becoming apparent to the broader investing public is the following:

    QE will NEVER end. Risk markets cannot sustain current levels without it. Only after a currency system reset will this change. Maintaining high asset prices is a Fed imperative.

    But more importantly, investors will eventually realise that the debt on the Fed's balance sheet will ultimately be monetised.

    Buy gold.
    Oct 19 05:59 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Is Happening Now Is Profound [View article]
    Contrary to what a few of the Bulls on this thread think there is literally only ONE way out - let all the malinvestment liquidate. Period.

    As long as central bankers insist on keeping it all propped up we will wallow in economic limbo (at best).

    A reset will happen. No doubt. It's simply when, not if.
    Oct 15 08:16 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Is Happening Now Is Profound [View article]
    I assume you'll be ' buying the dip' then?

    If you hadn't got so drunk watching the stock pumpers on CNBC you may have noticed that profit margins were at record highs and have already started to turn. Mean reversion is a layup certainty.

    Not to worry, the only way is UP!
    Oct 15 08:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • No Relief For GLD Longs On The Horizon [View article]
    James, it's a good question. Here's my take:

    Treasuries have done extremely well lately because of a building fear of deflation. Cash and bonds are the only game in town when deflation becomes a realistic possibility. Stocks and other risk assets suffer so we're seeing a rotation out of risk into bonds/cash. The dollar is strong for the same reason.

    In other words, the market has stepped in to support bonds just as the Fed is stepping away. Also, the market was short Treasuries to begin with, believing they would sell off as the Fed exited. They were wrong and short covering is helping boost bonds.

    Another factor has been the much lower budget deficit this year for the U.S. gov (not as much need for bond buyers) but this will change in the years ahead as that deficit grows again.

    Look for bond yields to go much lower from here as investors seek safety.

    Like many who've posted on this thread I don't believe the Fed can afford to raise rates (ever) because of the indebtedness of the private and public sectors and more QE will be needed eventually when treasury buyers start to exit. The Fed and the economy is trapped and when this fully sinks in gold will enter an epic bull phase.
    Oct 15 04:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No Relief For GLD Longs On The Horizon [View article]
    Question:

    Where are all the bullish AAPL articles today? Usually my Inbox is jammed full of them.
    Oct 15 03:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Is Happening Now Is Profound [View article]
    The theme on central bank faith is absolutely correct.

    The markets started to mend in 2009 as investors started to believe that central banks could effectively control asset prices at will and they believed too that CBs could mend economies. This faith strengthened incredibly over the next few years and led to a 200% rise in the S&P 500, as well as crazy levels in most other asset classes.

    Recently, however, the rank failure of Abenomics in Japan and the anaemic recovery in the US have shaken that faith and a disorderly meltdown in risk assets will destroy the aura of CB omnipotence for good as this is all that is keeping the latest bubble inflated. When this happens it is surely game over.

    We live in interesting times to say the least.
    Oct 15 06:37 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Time To Just Give Up On Gold? [View article]
    Technically gold looks pretty awful and there will be a washout at some point (hopefully sooner rather than later). Given the volatility in stocks it's interesting that gold has barely pepped up which gives me hope it will washout soon.

    What's dragging it down is the deflation theme (the long end of the bond market supports that view) but the (fundamental) support for gold will return when the Fed is forced to reintroduce QE and investors realise that QE will never end (Japan is a shining example of this ).

    In fact, there are already signs that investors' faith in Central Banks policies is beginning to fray.
    Oct 12 05:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Use Your Illusion I: Prospects For S&P 500 Sales Growth [View article]
    The world is in a synchronised downturn. Sales growth is doomed to flatline or decline. Only inflation or fraud can flatter the top line.
    Oct 11 09:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Activist Carl Icahn Overly Aggressive On His EPS Estimate? [View article]
    Yes, but what if the average S&P stock is grossly over-valued?
    Oct 11 08:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How High Can Icahn Drive Apple Shares? [View article]
    The fact that you compare AAPL and GOOG is worrying given they earn revenues in materially different ways and that GOOG is much more a monopoly than AAPL can ever hope to be.

    Icahn is a stirrer. He talks a good game but believes none of the BS he says publicly.
    Oct 10 08:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dive set to continue at open [View news story]
    Big call, papita.

    Professional traders refer to what you suggest doing as "catching a falling knife". This is typically something a day trader or Joe Blow investor does.

    Sentiment and technicals right now are screaming the small-fry are best staying away from this market altogether.
    Oct 10 08:09 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dive set to continue at open [View news story]
    Mmmmmm ... Some new names round these parts.

    I assume it's cause the Bulls are all too busy 'buying the dip'.
    Oct 10 08:04 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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