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threeleaves

threeleaves
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  • Are Energy Investors Rotating Out Of Shale Producers And Into Big Oil? [View article]
    Fear of domestic glut and bottlenecks. Fear of new production in Iran. Fear of weather. Fear of interest rates. Fear of Fed. Fear that oil will follow the footsteps of natural gas. etc. etc. etc. . . . . It's mostly noise, in my opinion. Fear of weather is my favorite. It's too transitory to have any teeth. Hopefully, shorts will pile in based on weather related events and production cuts that may ensue.

    This summer the Bakken and Eagle Ford could do no wrong. I think there was some over exuberance there. The sell-off is healthy and necessary for the space to move higher.
    Dec 7 02:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Abraxas Petroleum: $3 Energy Play Is Going Higher [View article]
    Global Hunter Securities raised their price target from $2.80 to $4, yet have a neutral rating! . . . Lots of fear in the oil space right now.
    Nov 7 11:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy XXI: Horizontal Drilling In GOM Results In 390% Organic Reserve Replacement Ratio [View article]
    Wouldn't it be more useful to back out the debt from your PV-10 figure? Doing that, I get something like $62.58/share for proved reserves. But then you also have income tax to figure in.
    Oct 21 03:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Esprit Holdings Already Priced For A Very Uncertain Recovery [View article]
    Interesting. I always wondered why they abandoned the U.S., especially since the brand was created in San Francisco, and especially since chinese consumers seem to gravitate towards western brands. All sorts of statements from their executives saying the brand has lost its soul. Gees . . . well, take the brand back to San Francisco and get it back. Duh. On a cultural basis, the bay area is one of the hippest areas on the planet, and richest. Seems obvious to me. I'm sure I'm missing something here, but there is plenty of mystique to draw upon in the bay area to build a long lasting and highly desirable brand.
    Aug 26 11:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Freeport-McMoRan: Low Free Cash Flow Yield Worth The Risk? [View article]
    Your article seems to conflate precious metals and industrial metals, which makes you seem ignorant of the subject you are supposed to have some authority over. Sorry, had to say it. I don't mean to be mean. . . . Also, you would have been better off leaving the topic of precious metals out of your article completely, for obvious reasons.
    Aug 25 08:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ConocoPhillips: Investor Update On The Safe Dividend, Venezuela, Libya, And More [View article]
    Michael . . . you could always sell OTM calls on your xom shares. If you get assigned at least you'll have sold at a higher price. If the share price stays put or declines, you can invest the premiums into COP. If you are very confident about your thesis of COP over XOM, in the long term, you should trust it, and gradually move the capital. Maybe do some math and figure out how much money you will lose if you don't reallocate the capital, and compare that to the cap gains taxes. I think it's a shame to do all the research and study you do, then not act on the knowledge. Just sayin'.
    Aug 25 07:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ConocoPhillips: The Best Positioned American Oil Major [View article]
    What is their gas to oil mix on a boe basis, post divestitures?
    Aug 25 06:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Could Shake Up Popular Buyback ETF [View article]
    Good point, but I'm not so sure. Ichan didn't come in until after Einhorn started meddling, and until after the stock had found medium term support around 400. When einhorn started to meddle, and when all the eggheads on wall-street and cnbc started whining about how apple wasn't shareholder friendly, they should have flipped everyone off (in a polite as way as possible of course) and encouraged them to press their sell buttons. There were a bunch of dummies selling at 388, and I can guarantee you there would have been even more dummies selling had it dropped below 300.
    Aug 22 07:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Could Shake Up Popular Buyback ETF [View article]
    I always thought apple should have waited before they started announcing buybacks. It seemed like the market wanted to take the stock down further than it did. Why not let it, then back up the truck on your own shares, maybe even repatriate cash to do it. They could have gotten more bang for their buck, and they could have bought more time to develop new products, giving themselves an eps boost for a couple years or more. I thought the media frenzied negativity in the stock at the beginning of the year was beautiful. I think apple should have stoked the negativity even further. I honestly don't think that the frenzy had reached its climax. If cash is king, we're talking about one of the most powerful institutions in the world. Why they need einhorn or ichan to tell them how to run their company is beyond me.
    Aug 22 06:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Schwab's (SCHW) platform appears to be functional after going down during the final hour of trading, and remaining down during the post-market Apple earnings release. Schwab thinks it was the victim of a DOS attack. [View news story]
    You're right about the time of the outage, Channon. Not "roughly 3:45". Not even close. This was very weird, considering the mini-crash earlier in the day due to twitter hack. I'm inclined to believe it was not a coincidence. Any good reporters out there? Or do all the journalists these days just regurgitate Reuters. There's probably a good story here, but I doubt we'll ever see it.
    Apr 24 02:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Get Ready For The Big One - Bakken Flooding Coming This Year? [View article]
    Yes. But the people who really made money were the people who took advantage of the one-time event and bought what the sellers were offering. I'm not saying that you can't make money on predictions of panic selling, but dang, that seems like a tough racket to be in.
    Mar 25 03:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Get Ready For The Big One - Bakken Flooding Coming This Year? [View article]
    Even if the author were correct, I think it's naive to suppose that such a one-time event would translate to lower stock prices for any company that could weather the storm. If the market has a positive sentiment towards a sector or stock that gets bashed because of a one-time event, the sector or stock will sky-rocket as a way of defying naive sellers. For example, if you were short airlines during the 2010 record snowstorms, you watched stock prices surge. Same thing in 2009 and 2010 with all the miners: any negative event relating to weather disruptions, strikes, etc. only sent the stocks surging higher. That said, the market sentiment on the domestic oil sector seems to be unenthusiastic at best, but such an event could be a test of where the bids are at.
    Mar 25 02:38 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is EOG Running On Empty? [View article]
    Author writes "The trend by exploration companies, which are now scurrying to produce oil, is eerily similar to the trend to produce natural gas that eventually led to oversupply, thus crushing the price of natural gas. . . . With the recent technological advances in oil extraction, (such as fracking and horizontal drilling) along with so many companies shifting their resources towards oil production, it is not unreasonable to believe that U.S. oil production will increase to the point where WTI prices will fall or even crash."

    There is a difference between gas and oil. Mainly, the dry-gas glut has much to do with the fact that United States infrastructure is not built to consume the massive quantities coming out of the ground. And because of the hurdles of LNG exports, domestic gas prices are in essence quarantined from much higher prices in asia and europe.

    With oil, yes there are some hurdles that discount the price of domestic shale oil in relation to brent, but the spreads are not nearly as drastic as domestic/global natural gas spreads. Those tighter oil spreads will stay intact because our infrastructure in the U.S. is built to consume massive quantities of oil. So much so that we still import over half of what we need.
    Mar 22 07:49 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apache Corp. Just Needs Some Time [View article]
    In the last conference call, management indicated flat or declining service costs in the Permian. Would be interested to know your source of info on rising costs. They did mention that their overall production costs tended to run higher than competitors due to significant offshore production. So I suppose that selling GOM assets to focus on Permian liquids would actually improve their efficiency. Anyway, I don't see how a sustained recovery in north american gas can be anything but a positive for apache, even if service costs rise some.
    Mar 17 11:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apache Corp. Just Needs Some Time [View article]
    I agree that Egypt will probably be fine, but Argentina is a drop in the bucket compared to the big scoop that is Egypt. As you indicated, Argentina was 3% of revenue in 2012. Egypt was 27%, and far superior margins. So the ultimate risk in Egypt is far greater than Argentina, even if the likelihood of government meddling is smaller, as you seem to think.

    As far as clarity in Egypt, it depends on what exactly is "clear". I personally think that what wall street cares about is whether or not the military maintains a large degree of power, or not.

    I think FID on Kitimat is the next catalyst. But who knows when that will happen. Chevron said yesterday that they wanted contracts signed for 60 to 70% of the gas. I'm not sure if they have any signed at all.
    Mar 13 11:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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