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threeleaves

threeleaves
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  • Apache Corp. Just Needs Some Time [View article]
    I agree that Egypt will probably be fine, but Argentina is a drop in the bucket compared to the big scoop that is Egypt. As you indicated, Argentina was 3% of revenue in 2012. Egypt was 27%, and far superior margins. So the ultimate risk in Egypt is far greater than Argentina, even if the likelihood of government meddling is smaller, as you seem to think.

    As far as clarity in Egypt, it depends on what exactly is "clear". I personally think that what wall street cares about is whether or not the military maintains a large degree of power, or not.

    I think FID on Kitimat is the next catalyst. But who knows when that will happen. Chevron said yesterday that they wanted contracts signed for 60 to 70% of the gas. I'm not sure if they have any signed at all.
    Mar 13 11:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apache Corp. Just Needs Some Time [View article]
    Regarding profit margins, remember that Apache took big hits in 2012 for Canadian asset write-downs. Sort of the opposite of Exxon, whose 2012 earnings are bloated due to asset sales.

    Regarding book value. I suppose investors are marking down Egypt assets in a big way due to sovereign risks, as well as Canadian assets due to Kitimat uncertainty and timing. Liard may be a whale, but the blubber is not worth much unless you can get it to market. Investors are tired of waiting for final investment decision. Very hated stock.
    Mar 12 09:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apache, Show Us The Money [View article]
    Let us know how your correspondence with management turns out.
    Mar 11 02:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Value In Apache Corporation [View article]
    I looked into the preferred, but couldn't figure the benefit over the common. They are mandatory convertible and seem to correlate in price with the common, except at a discount of remaining dividends to be paid. That's how I figured it, but I could be wrong. There could be benefits I wouldn't know about like tax advantages for certain people or corporations.

    Here is the link to the prospectus:

    http://bit.ly/W9bbI6
    Feb 25 04:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apache Is Ready To Move Higher Now [View article]
    Have you sold your shares yet?
    Feb 16 05:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Exxon Mobil Is An 'Inevitable' Buy Now [View article]
    So I wonder why Buffett took a small position in mid '09, then promptly began his exit from the stock in early '10. Remind me, when was the XTO acquisition?
    Dec 11 10:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apache Is Ready To Move Higher Now [View article]
    In June when gas was just over $2, they said they needed $2.57 for Liard Basin to be "effective". But like you say, I suppose it's a matter of allocating capital to wherever the highest margins are. Like liquids. Apache is scrambling to secure liquids in the event that Egypt, their cash cow, goes kaput.
    Dec 11 01:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apache Is Ready To Move Higher Now [View article]
    Liard and Horn are already connected to the domestic market. It's the pacific trail pipeline that needs to be built to connect spectra pipeline to kitimat.
    Dec 10 06:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Freeport-McMoRan: Why Its Acquisitions May Cause Investors To Sell [View article]
    If you are implying that Freeport is bearish on copper prices, I think you are mistaken. What they are bearish on, according to them, is opportunities for growth in copper that fit their criteria--huge, low cost, long life. This is not new. They have been talking about this for awhile now.
    Dec 10 09:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Freeport-McMoRan: Why Its Acquisitions May Cause Investors To Sell [View article]
    I think you're right on about this. If you listened to the conference call, the guy from blackrock was royally ticked. I actually started to laugh out loud at one point thinking--o.k. this guy manages billions of dollars worth of money for one of the largest investment firms in the world, he's got a huge position in fcx because he wants direct exposure to copper, and then overnight he not only has to deal with the fact that his huge position just got whacked, but he has to rebuild his portfolio to get the copper exposure he wants. Of course he's pissed! He could try to hedge out mmr and pxp, but that's a big gamble and complicated. FCX was a great proxy to copper, whether as a strict long, or as a hedge to short positions like iron ore. Now a lot of people who owned FCX are caught with their pants down while some of the metals and coal stocks rally.

    @maverta--I don't think the title is misleading at all. The author is simply trying to explain a dynamic that may lead to selling of fcx.
    Dec 6 10:41 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Going On With Freeport-McMoRan? [View article]
    Nothing in article link that says anything about synergies. Not that I can see.

    The only synergy that was mentioned on conference call was lower interest payments.
    Dec 6 10:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Going On With Freeport-McMoRan? [View article]
    Not sure where the author got this notion of synergies. In the conference call, management specifically stated that the deal had nothing to do synergistic cost reductions.
    Dec 5 07:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Caterpillar's Financial Results Tell Us About The Mining Industry [View article]
    I disagree. CAT's present fortunes are mostly connected to the mining boom leashed to China. Falling metal, coal, and oil prices may be bad for CAT, but they are not necessarily bad for the global economy. Bad situation for Australia, Canada, Brazil and other countries who have their ships tethered to commodity exports. But not bad for the U.S.
    Nov 16 08:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Expect The EPA To Finish Off Shale Gas, Either [View article]
    CNBC had a slide show on the 10 most polluted countries in the world, and the first thing I noticed is that all of their economies rely heavily on the extraction business. Not sure how accurate their info was, but it makes you think.

    Seems like the Western world exports those businesses because we would rather all the poor folks in third world countries have cesspools in their backyards than us (think copper tailings in Papua) Crafty little bastards aren't we. . . . 10% china GDP, but at what cost. More like GDD--gross domestic destruction. Subtract all the costs of pollution (quality of life, death, cancer,resource destruction, etc.) and GDP is a lot harder to figure out. I'm sure we could have 10% GDP here in the states if we unleash the miners and oilers, tell them to just laugh off all the hippies that care about foolish things like fish and salamanders, so we can supply a revived manufacturing base with cheap fuel. And we'll just put all those factories where we always do--in our own third world: backwoods America. Poor bastards will be so happy to have a job, they won't care about the cesspools in their backyard, or that persistent cough, while all the shareholders laugh it up in the suburbs. The extractors LOVE a bad economy, and they love high unemployment because it gives them the persuasive leverage to do business in America's backyard. I can't tell you how many papers and articles I've read written by people in the energy industry that constantly harp on the bad economy. Even when the economy is good, they like to portray a bad economy. Crisis equals opportunity. But most of us would rather the extraction business stay in the third world 'cause who cares about them folks in that country I've never heard of. Isn't it OXY who has wells located in warehouses in L.A.? If only those yuppies in Coldwater knew what was in their backyard!

    I am NOT against extraction. But I am against people who just don't give a crap. . . . You're concerned about your water supply? Oh my god! Shocker! . . . Why are oil people so surprised by this, considering our history with water pollution in the past? It's not a political issue, even if the politicians make it one. It's wrong and stupid for the left to leverage fear, but fear is a politicians favorite tool.The left and the right use it equally to push whatever agenda they have because people respond to it. . . . But the Cumberland River where I fish for all manner of aquatic species is not a political issue--it's a river, and a damn fine one at that. A lot cleaner than it was twenty years ago. Air and water and health and quality of life are important to many people. Most people I would say. It's the few that don't give a crap that worry me.
    Nov 16 01:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Metal Mining Woes To Profit From [View article]
    I don't subscribe to the idea that iron ore companies will be able to control supply to their benefit. Over the past decade or more, iron ore infrastructure has gone through the roof. Fortescue plans more in Pilabra. Vale plans more infrastructure in Carajas. Rio seems on the fence. Iron ore is ubiquitous, but companies like Fortescue have this dream that they actually own gold. They don't..So, massive infrastructure built, and massive infrastructure still coming. What is the best way to make your numbers if iron ore prices decline? PRODUCE MORE IRON ORE! Volume becomes the solution. This is why iron ore prices are plumetting and will continue to do so. FCX is preferable, but Grasberg is high risk. Wouldn't be caught dead in an iron-ore pure play. That said, the Chinese are in a conundrum. They may boost useless infrastructure spending in the near term to avoid chaos and massive unemployment, but the more money they throw down the toilet, the worse the eventual outcome will be. Much like Europe is doing now--wasting loads of money fixing near term dilemmas, while the fundamental structure is the real demon. Iron ore is beginning a new secular bear market that could last for a decade. Exactly opposite the secular bull market that so many people still see in the rear view mirror. Copper is better.
    Aug 15 07:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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