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  • ConocoPhillips: The Best Positioned American Oil Major [View article]
    What is their gas to oil mix on a boe basis, post divestitures?
    Aug 25, 2013. 06:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Could Shake Up Popular Buyback ETF [View article]
    Good point, but I'm not so sure. Ichan didn't come in until after Einhorn started meddling, and until after the stock had found medium term support around 400. When einhorn started to meddle, and when all the eggheads on wall-street and cnbc started whining about how apple wasn't shareholder friendly, they should have flipped everyone off (in a polite as way as possible of course) and encouraged them to press their sell buttons. There were a bunch of dummies selling at 388, and I can guarantee you there would have been even more dummies selling had it dropped below 300.
    Aug 22, 2013. 07:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Could Shake Up Popular Buyback ETF [View article]
    I always thought apple should have waited before they started announcing buybacks. It seemed like the market wanted to take the stock down further than it did. Why not let it, then back up the truck on your own shares, maybe even repatriate cash to do it. They could have gotten more bang for their buck, and they could have bought more time to develop new products, giving themselves an eps boost for a couple years or more. I thought the media frenzied negativity in the stock at the beginning of the year was beautiful. I think apple should have stoked the negativity even further. I honestly don't think that the frenzy had reached its climax. If cash is king, we're talking about one of the most powerful institutions in the world. Why they need einhorn or ichan to tell them how to run their company is beyond me.
    Aug 22, 2013. 06:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Schwab's (SCHW) platform appears to be functional after going down during the final hour of trading, and remaining down during the post-market Apple earnings release. Schwab thinks it was the victim of a DOS attack. [View news story]
    You're right about the time of the outage, Channon. Not "roughly 3:45". Not even close. This was very weird, considering the mini-crash earlier in the day due to twitter hack. I'm inclined to believe it was not a coincidence. Any good reporters out there? Or do all the journalists these days just regurgitate Reuters. There's probably a good story here, but I doubt we'll ever see it.
    Apr 24, 2013. 02:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Get Ready For The Big One - Bakken Flooding Coming This Year? [View article]
    Yes. But the people who really made money were the people who took advantage of the one-time event and bought what the sellers were offering. I'm not saying that you can't make money on predictions of panic selling, but dang, that seems like a tough racket to be in.
    Mar 25, 2013. 03:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Get Ready For The Big One - Bakken Flooding Coming This Year? [View article]
    Even if the author were correct, I think it's naive to suppose that such a one-time event would translate to lower stock prices for any company that could weather the storm. If the market has a positive sentiment towards a sector or stock that gets bashed because of a one-time event, the sector or stock will sky-rocket as a way of defying naive sellers. For example, if you were short airlines during the 2010 record snowstorms, you watched stock prices surge. Same thing in 2009 and 2010 with all the miners: any negative event relating to weather disruptions, strikes, etc. only sent the stocks surging higher. That said, the market sentiment on the domestic oil sector seems to be unenthusiastic at best, but such an event could be a test of where the bids are at.
    Mar 25, 2013. 02:38 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is EOG Running On Empty? [View article]
    Author writes "The trend by exploration companies, which are now scurrying to produce oil, is eerily similar to the trend to produce natural gas that eventually led to oversupply, thus crushing the price of natural gas. . . . With the recent technological advances in oil extraction, (such as fracking and horizontal drilling) along with so many companies shifting their resources towards oil production, it is not unreasonable to believe that U.S. oil production will increase to the point where WTI prices will fall or even crash."

    There is a difference between gas and oil. Mainly, the dry-gas glut has much to do with the fact that United States infrastructure is not built to consume the massive quantities coming out of the ground. And because of the hurdles of LNG exports, domestic gas prices are in essence quarantined from much higher prices in asia and europe.

    With oil, yes there are some hurdles that discount the price of domestic shale oil in relation to brent, but the spreads are not nearly as drastic as domestic/global natural gas spreads. Those tighter oil spreads will stay intact because our infrastructure in the U.S. is built to consume massive quantities of oil. So much so that we still import over half of what we need.
    Mar 22, 2013. 07:49 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apache Corp. Just Needs Some Time [View article]
    In the last conference call, management indicated flat or declining service costs in the Permian. Would be interested to know your source of info on rising costs. They did mention that their overall production costs tended to run higher than competitors due to significant offshore production. So I suppose that selling GOM assets to focus on Permian liquids would actually improve their efficiency. Anyway, I don't see how a sustained recovery in north american gas can be anything but a positive for apache, even if service costs rise some.
    Mar 17, 2013. 11:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apache Corp. Just Needs Some Time [View article]
    I agree that Egypt will probably be fine, but Argentina is a drop in the bucket compared to the big scoop that is Egypt. As you indicated, Argentina was 3% of revenue in 2012. Egypt was 27%, and far superior margins. So the ultimate risk in Egypt is far greater than Argentina, even if the likelihood of government meddling is smaller, as you seem to think.

    As far as clarity in Egypt, it depends on what exactly is "clear". I personally think that what wall street cares about is whether or not the military maintains a large degree of power, or not.

    I think FID on Kitimat is the next catalyst. But who knows when that will happen. Chevron said yesterday that they wanted contracts signed for 60 to 70% of the gas. I'm not sure if they have any signed at all.
    Mar 13, 2013. 11:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apache Corp. Just Needs Some Time [View article]
    Regarding profit margins, remember that Apache took big hits in 2012 for Canadian asset write-downs. Sort of the opposite of Exxon, whose 2012 earnings are bloated due to asset sales.

    Regarding book value. I suppose investors are marking down Egypt assets in a big way due to sovereign risks, as well as Canadian assets due to Kitimat uncertainty and timing. Liard may be a whale, but the blubber is not worth much unless you can get it to market. Investors are tired of waiting for final investment decision. Very hated stock.
    Mar 12, 2013. 09:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apache, Show Us The Money [View article]
    Let us know how your correspondence with management turns out.
    Mar 11, 2013. 02:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Value In Apache Corporation [View article]
    I looked into the preferred, but couldn't figure the benefit over the common. They are mandatory convertible and seem to correlate in price with the common, except at a discount of remaining dividends to be paid. That's how I figured it, but I could be wrong. There could be benefits I wouldn't know about like tax advantages for certain people or corporations.

    Here is the link to the prospectus:
    Feb 25, 2013. 04:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apache Is Ready To Move Higher Now [View article]
    Have you sold your shares yet?
    Feb 16, 2013. 05:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Exxon Mobil Is An 'Inevitable' Buy Now [View article]
    So I wonder why Buffett took a small position in mid '09, then promptly began his exit from the stock in early '10. Remind me, when was the XTO acquisition?
    Dec 11, 2012. 10:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apache Is Ready To Move Higher Now [View article]
    In June when gas was just over $2, they said they needed $2.57 for Liard Basin to be "effective". But like you say, I suppose it's a matter of allocating capital to wherever the highest margins are. Like liquids. Apache is scrambling to secure liquids in the event that Egypt, their cash cow, goes kaput.
    Dec 11, 2012. 01:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment