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threeleaves

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  • What's Going On With Freeport-McMoRan? [View article]
    Not sure where the author got this notion of synergies. In the conference call, management specifically stated that the deal had nothing to do synergistic cost reductions.
    Dec 5 07:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Caterpillar's Financial Results Tell Us About The Mining Industry [View article]
    I disagree. CAT's present fortunes are mostly connected to the mining boom leashed to China. Falling metal, coal, and oil prices may be bad for CAT, but they are not necessarily bad for the global economy. Bad situation for Australia, Canada, Brazil and other countries who have their ships tethered to commodity exports. But not bad for the U.S.
    Nov 16 08:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Expect The EPA To Finish Off Shale Gas, Either [View article]
    CNBC had a slide show on the 10 most polluted countries in the world, and the first thing I noticed is that all of their economies rely heavily on the extraction business. Not sure how accurate their info was, but it makes you think.

    Seems like the Western world exports those businesses because we would rather all the poor folks in third world countries have cesspools in their backyards than us (think copper tailings in Papua) Crafty little bastards aren't we. . . . 10% china GDP, but at what cost. More like GDD--gross domestic destruction. Subtract all the costs of pollution (quality of life, death, cancer,resource destruction, etc.) and GDP is a lot harder to figure out. I'm sure we could have 10% GDP here in the states if we unleash the miners and oilers, tell them to just laugh off all the hippies that care about foolish things like fish and salamanders, so we can supply a revived manufacturing base with cheap fuel. And we'll just put all those factories where we always do--in our own third world: backwoods America. Poor bastards will be so happy to have a job, they won't care about the cesspools in their backyard, or that persistent cough, while all the shareholders laugh it up in the suburbs. The extractors LOVE a bad economy, and they love high unemployment because it gives them the persuasive leverage to do business in America's backyard. I can't tell you how many papers and articles I've read written by people in the energy industry that constantly harp on the bad economy. Even when the economy is good, they like to portray a bad economy. Crisis equals opportunity. But most of us would rather the extraction business stay in the third world 'cause who cares about them folks in that country I've never heard of. Isn't it OXY who has wells located in warehouses in L.A.? If only those yuppies in Coldwater knew what was in their backyard!

    I am NOT against extraction. But I am against people who just don't give a crap. . . . You're concerned about your water supply? Oh my god! Shocker! . . . Why are oil people so surprised by this, considering our history with water pollution in the past? It's not a political issue, even if the politicians make it one. It's wrong and stupid for the left to leverage fear, but fear is a politicians favorite tool.The left and the right use it equally to push whatever agenda they have because people respond to it. . . . But the Cumberland River where I fish for all manner of aquatic species is not a political issue--it's a river, and a damn fine one at that. A lot cleaner than it was twenty years ago. Air and water and health and quality of life are important to many people. Most people I would say. It's the few that don't give a crap that worry me.
    Nov 16 01:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Metal Mining Woes To Profit From [View article]
    I don't subscribe to the idea that iron ore companies will be able to control supply to their benefit. Over the past decade or more, iron ore infrastructure has gone through the roof. Fortescue plans more in Pilabra. Vale plans more infrastructure in Carajas. Rio seems on the fence. Iron ore is ubiquitous, but companies like Fortescue have this dream that they actually own gold. They don't..So, massive infrastructure built, and massive infrastructure still coming. What is the best way to make your numbers if iron ore prices decline? PRODUCE MORE IRON ORE! Volume becomes the solution. This is why iron ore prices are plumetting and will continue to do so. FCX is preferable, but Grasberg is high risk. Wouldn't be caught dead in an iron-ore pure play. That said, the Chinese are in a conundrum. They may boost useless infrastructure spending in the near term to avoid chaos and massive unemployment, but the more money they throw down the toilet, the worse the eventual outcome will be. Much like Europe is doing now--wasting loads of money fixing near term dilemmas, while the fundamental structure is the real demon. Iron ore is beginning a new secular bear market that could last for a decade. Exactly opposite the secular bull market that so many people still see in the rear view mirror. Copper is better.
    Aug 15 07:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dreamworks Animation's Shares Could Rally On Television Channel Announcement [View article]
    Analysts have been aching for a 14 handle on this stock for at least a year now. Question is, why haven't they gotten it. And if they were going to get it, wouldn't it be today, after such a drastic miss. My personal take is that there is too much speculative money out there for this small capper to go down much further in the near future. When you take a look at the companies out there that make no money at all, yet attract a ton of speculative money, then DWA looks like a star. The DVD thing is yesterday's news which is probably why after opening lower, the stock is squeezing slowly higher.
    Aug 1 12:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney (JCP +7%) soars as Marie Claire fashion director Nina Garcia tweets to thank CEO Ron Johnson for a walk-through of a prototype store. "Get ready to shop. It's going to be a game changer!"  [View news story]
    Nobody cares what some fashion editor says. But it only takes a tiny spark to cause the computers to trigger orders on 25% short interest. Simple short squeeze and nothing more. Too many shorts late to the party on this one.
    Jul 25 06:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Like Italy, Spain bans short selling for three months - and perhaps beyond. The ban includes derivatives and over-the-counter instruments.  [View news story]
    Is the game rigged? Probably. Is there corruption on wall street? Yes. Do the criminals on wall street need to be tried and convicted with life sentences in hard core prisons? Yes. Did wall street bilk billions from taxpayers? Yes. Was the subprime market created by wall street bad for the economy? Yes.

    Is shortselling bad for the economy? . . . NO. If you really dig into the dynamics of short selling and how it functions in the market, you would see this. Here are a few functions:

    1) Almost all market rallies start because shorts start covering or they are being forced to cover. Having short interest guarantees that buyers will come in. The market will never go to zero. Why? Shortsellers.
    2) People like Einhorn would not be in the market if he couldn't hold short postions. Remember Einhorn has long postions also. Having short positions hedges long exposure. If you can't hedge long exposure, you will drive money out of the market. That's bad.
    3) All short postions are backed by cash or by assets. For example, if I were short only with my online broker, I would have to have cash in my account. That cash gives my broker the ability to loan to margin accounts whereby people could buy a little extra HLF if they so choose. In other words, it pumps money into the system.
    4) Are people like Einhorn pumping their books? Yes. But we need shortsellers to pump their books. Why? Because for every shortseller pundit, there are a hundred sell siders pumping their books and creating bubbles.
    5) Shortsellers are generally more cautious in their choices and more exhaustive in their research. They have to be because of the greater risk they take. Not the same for long only because the market has an upward bias. If the market were long only, then we lose checks and balances. The skeptics give the market validity. It's always the shortsellers that pour through sec filings to uncover fraud or shenanigans. The market needs these skeptics, and we need to give them a financial incentive (profit) to keep them here.

    I'm not saying that there isn't a problem with wall street. I totally concur, and it needs to be fixed. But banning short sellers is a recipe for disaster.
    Jul 23 08:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dreamworks Animation Is Acquiring Casper, He-Man, And Waldo; Here's Why You Should Care [View article]
    WSJ says revenue 80 mil and profit 20 mil. Cinema blend obviously not a reliable source of information, and, unfortunately, by default, your credibility comes into question here. I'm not saying wsj is always accurate, but 20 mil makes more sense than 376.

    For now, this stock seems range bound between 16 and 20. I don't think it will reach the 14 that analyst seem to be looking for. Not with short interest at over 20%. I would think there is a better chance that shorts get squeezed over 20 than holders panic below 16. I think people are making too big a deal out of DVD sales. It's old news, and I think DWA is doing a decent job of moving on. This aquisition is an example of that. So is the china deal.
    Jul 23 06:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apache's New Discoveries Will Propel Stock Higher By 2013 [View article]
    Ugg. I normally try to be as constructive as possible in regards to my comments about articles, but I just can't find a single valuable thing about this article. It's pure regurgitation of stuff everyone already knows, without even a single mention to the Egypt scenario which is what most would agree earns Apache the low multiple. And no, Liard is not presently a gold mine, not with NG at these prices. Even just a freckle of insight would have been appreciated.
    Jun 22 02:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Losing Egypt Won't Be A Disaster For Apache [View article]
    I think they are saying that the infrastructure already exists for the north american market. That's what I'm getting from their slide presentation anyway:

    http://bit.ly/NoH3Bm
    Jun 21 06:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Losing Egypt Won't Be A Disaster For Apache [View article]
    Off topic, but I thought the Liard basin numbers were pretty shocking. 48tcf and extremely efficient. They're saying they'll get 18bcf from a single well. Profitable at $2.57. Market just shrugged which I think is pretty funny since they made the announcement last Thursday when NG prices were rocketing. But Egypt election was on the horizon. Bad timing.

    I thought the 48tcf number was interesting since XTO had 45tcf in total when Exxon bought them for 31bil.

    Huge discovery. Almost sounds too good to be true, or am I missing something.
    Jun 21 01:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apache (APA +1.7%) says it has discovered "probably the best shale gas reservoir in the world" in a remote corner of northeast British Columbia, a massive field containing as much as 48 tcf of recoverable natural gas. One of three wells it drilled in the area delivered 21.3 mcf of gas/day over its first 30 days of production, which APA says is the most prolific shale gas test well it ever drilled.  [View news story]
    I was wondering the same thing.
    Jun 19 05:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Losing Egypt Won't Be A Disaster For Apache [View article]
    It's about time someone laid this out. Much better APA article than most. There have been several SA articles on APA lately that have not so much as mentioned the Egypt situation. Thanks for having a clue.
    Jun 19 02:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Anadarko Ready For $5 Jolt By Fall [View article]
    Anyone know when to expect results of tronox trial?
    Jun 19 08:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas Gains May Evaporate In The Summer Heat: Positioning For The Long Term [View article]
    As long as producers can make money on $2.50 gas, and as long as there is bountiful supply, I just don't see how anyone could go 100x long gas or even say such a thing. Run up over past week is just trading noise. I thought it was funny that the runup on Thursday coincided with Apache investor conference in which they announced their massive Liard basin findings. Farris said it was "the best shale gas play in the world". They will need $2.57 domestic to produce at a profit. If they can make a profit on 2.57 gas in remote B.C., then what's the margin in Texas? . . . Also interesting that all their production growth projections take into account zero north american gas investment. Tons of gas in North America, and it just seems to keep on coming. Costs and crews getting cheaper. Lots of supply waiting for higher prices. And crude going down. Natural gas price bulls are looking in the rear view mirror. Shale is a game changer.
    Jun 19 01:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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