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threeleaves

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  • Apache Corp. Just Needs Some Time [View article]
    In the last conference call, management indicated flat or declining service costs in the Permian. Would be interested to know your source of info on rising costs. They did mention that their overall production costs tended to run higher than competitors due to significant offshore production. So I suppose that selling GOM assets to focus on Permian liquids would actually improve their efficiency. Anyway, I don't see how a sustained recovery in north american gas can be anything but a positive for apache, even if service costs rise some.
    Mar 17 11:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apache Corp. Just Needs Some Time [View article]
    I agree that Egypt will probably be fine, but Argentina is a drop in the bucket compared to the big scoop that is Egypt. As you indicated, Argentina was 3% of revenue in 2012. Egypt was 27%, and far superior margins. So the ultimate risk in Egypt is far greater than Argentina, even if the likelihood of government meddling is smaller, as you seem to think.

    As far as clarity in Egypt, it depends on what exactly is "clear". I personally think that what wall street cares about is whether or not the military maintains a large degree of power, or not.

    I think FID on Kitimat is the next catalyst. But who knows when that will happen. Chevron said yesterday that they wanted contracts signed for 60 to 70% of the gas. I'm not sure if they have any signed at all.
    Mar 13 11:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apache Corp. Just Needs Some Time [View article]
    Regarding profit margins, remember that Apache took big hits in 2012 for Canadian asset write-downs. Sort of the opposite of Exxon, whose 2012 earnings are bloated due to asset sales.

    Regarding book value. I suppose investors are marking down Egypt assets in a big way due to sovereign risks, as well as Canadian assets due to Kitimat uncertainty and timing. Liard may be a whale, but the blubber is not worth much unless you can get it to market. Investors are tired of waiting for final investment decision. Very hated stock.
    Mar 12 09:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apache, Show Us The Money [View article]
    Let us know how your correspondence with management turns out.
    Mar 11 02:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Value In Apache Corporation [View article]
    I looked into the preferred, but couldn't figure the benefit over the common. They are mandatory convertible and seem to correlate in price with the common, except at a discount of remaining dividends to be paid. That's how I figured it, but I could be wrong. There could be benefits I wouldn't know about like tax advantages for certain people or corporations.

    Here is the link to the prospectus:

    http://bit.ly/W9bbI6
    Feb 25 04:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apache Is Ready To Move Higher Now [View article]
    Have you sold your shares yet?
    Feb 16 05:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apache Is Ready To Move Higher Now [View article]
    In June when gas was just over $2, they said they needed $2.57 for Liard Basin to be "effective". But like you say, I suppose it's a matter of allocating capital to wherever the highest margins are. Like liquids. Apache is scrambling to secure liquids in the event that Egypt, their cash cow, goes kaput.
    Dec 11 01:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apache Is Ready To Move Higher Now [View article]
    Liard and Horn are already connected to the domestic market. It's the pacific trail pipeline that needs to be built to connect spectra pipeline to kitimat.
    Dec 10 06:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apache's New Discoveries Will Propel Stock Higher By 2013 [View article]
    Ugg. I normally try to be as constructive as possible in regards to my comments about articles, but I just can't find a single valuable thing about this article. It's pure regurgitation of stuff everyone already knows, without even a single mention to the Egypt scenario which is what most would agree earns Apache the low multiple. And no, Liard is not presently a gold mine, not with NG at these prices. Even just a freckle of insight would have been appreciated.
    Jun 22 02:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Losing Egypt Won't Be A Disaster For Apache [View article]
    I think they are saying that the infrastructure already exists for the north american market. That's what I'm getting from their slide presentation anyway:

    http://bit.ly/NoH3Bm
    Jun 21 06:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Losing Egypt Won't Be A Disaster For Apache [View article]
    Off topic, but I thought the Liard basin numbers were pretty shocking. 48tcf and extremely efficient. They're saying they'll get 18bcf from a single well. Profitable at $2.57. Market just shrugged which I think is pretty funny since they made the announcement last Thursday when NG prices were rocketing. But Egypt election was on the horizon. Bad timing.

    I thought the 48tcf number was interesting since XTO had 45tcf in total when Exxon bought them for 31bil.

    Huge discovery. Almost sounds too good to be true, or am I missing something.
    Jun 21 01:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Losing Egypt Won't Be A Disaster For Apache [View article]
    It's about time someone laid this out. Much better APA article than most. There have been several SA articles on APA lately that have not so much as mentioned the Egypt situation. Thanks for having a clue.
    Jun 19 02:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apache: A High Value Stock In A Shaky Sector [View article]
    Got to wonder how/if the outcome of the Egyptian elections may move the stock price. I think there may be a decent chance of a relief rally despite results.
    Jun 13 11:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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