Seeking Alpha

alx.botelho

alx.botelho
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View alx.botelho's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Manchester United Still A Buy Despite Sir Alex Ferguson's Retirement [View article]
    Hi

    I would say that commercial revenue and match day revenue are up about 30% vs last year because United has been on the top spot of the Premier League for the most part of the season, whereas last year they were behind City most of the time...

    I haven't looked into United's financials with great detail, but I certainly don't expect them to show this kind of growth next year. And if they aren't able to put on a good performance next season, which will be a transition year, things may get complicated... A mkt cap of 3 Billion for a net income of 3 Million...

    Regards
    May 17 05:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney Jumps: Buy The Rally Or Sell The Hype? [View article]
    Thats why I trust Ackman and Roth. They know about RE. They started building their positions back in 2010... Its dangerous to short stocks with such a strong shareholder base and such a high short interest. Squeezes can be brutal. SHLD went from 28 to 80 in about 2 months... Be careful ;-)
    Dec 14 05:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney Jumps: Buy The Rally Or Sell The Hype? [View article]
    because it's improving stores, thus raising their value. and QE forever is also increasing the value of its real estate. Even if BV decreases, it won't decrease that much...

    M operates 820 stores and values its property and equipment at 8.4 Bln.
    JCP operates 1102 and values them at 5.1 Bln. Similar locations and ownership structure.

    It's a RE play.They just decided to run the stores instead of turning into a REIT right away. If we already have the employees and the brand, why not keep an extra margin? Well, somewhere along that road things have gotten sour... But I'm a believer in the strategy
    Dec 14 07:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney Jumps: Buy The Rally Or Sell The Hype? [View article]
    It's below book value...
    Dec 14 07:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney Jumps: Buy The Rally Or Sell The Hype? [View article]
    Aqua is right. And they can always sell a few stores.
    Dec 14 05:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An interesting question on the looming Best Buy (BBY) deal is posed by Jeff Macke who wants to know why Richard Schulze wouldn't play a bit of a waiting game with the rumored value of the deal already falling by 35% in less than two months. Despite the deadline imposed by the board, waiting for another a quarter of earnings results and potential soft cash flow forecast could yield an even lower buy price. [View news story]
    they have access to real time data......

    at $12 BBY is already trading at book value. with $ 40 Bln plus annual sales, if they can increase margins a little bit the company would be really, really cheap at $18.
    Dec 13 09:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An interesting question on the looming Best Buy (BBY) deal is posed by Jeff Macke who wants to know why Richard Schulze wouldn't play a bit of a waiting game with the rumored value of the deal already falling by 35% in less than two months. Despite the deadline imposed by the board, waiting for another a quarter of earnings results and potential soft cash flow forecast could yield an even lower buy price. [View news story]
    or maybe this Q wont be that bad and/or other possible bidders may jump on board
    Dec 13 09:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • At 52-Week Lows, J.C. Penney Stock Is Untouchable [View article]
    True, a continuous cash burn would diminish the company's book value significantly.
    Thats why I believe Ackman and Roth will change strategy if this holliday season turns out as bad as the current quarter.
    Its much harder for these turnarounds to turn out successful in public companies than it is in private ones. RJ probably spends more time worrying about the stock than worrying about the company. And the market hardly sess anything more than 2 years in advance...

    Regards
    Nov 14 07:01 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • At 52-Week Lows, J.C. Penney Stock Is Untouchable [View article]
    JCP may just be another SHLD. But with short interest above 40% and a strong shareholder base, the stock could go back to 30 if liquidation chatter intensified... Earlier in the year Sears went from below 30 to 80 dollars in 2 months.
    Didnt Ackman want to spin off TGT's real estate into a separate vehicle in 2008? I dont believe in an 11bln plus valuation for JCP's property and "long term below market leases", but in the balance sheet they're valued at 5. They "just" needed to be worth about 8bln for you to get $30 plus per share...
    Nov 14 04:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney (JCP -3.1%) trades lower as more late-to-the-party analyst downgrades pour in and fresh calls for Ron Johnson's firing are heard. Questions on the retailer's financial viability in the face of same-store sales falling off +20% for three straight quarters are also being posed by more people than just gleeful JCP shorts. [View news story]
    well, liquidation on the way... or someone is going to place a bid to take it private... hope not too low...

    Ackman is the one who has a lot to explain. he's been underperforming quite a bit lately...
    Nov 12 10:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on J.C. Penney's (JCP) earnings call: 2013 is the year the retailer returns to growth, according to CEO Ron Johnson. His vision includes a JCP (shops) within J.C. Penney (old-school department store) where iPad look-books, automated check-out, and upscale shops bring in consumers to an atmosphere where they can drink coffee and buy upscale products. It's no surprise that RJ mentions the success of Apple's retail stores a few times, but the vast difference in square footage makes the analogy confusing. Execs spent so much time filibustering that the Q&A is relatively uneventful. JCP -8.9% premarket. (webcast[View news story]
    liquidation or BO may kill the shorts... Ackman is going to have to make a move. Sooner rather than later
    Nov 9 11:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The ITC yesterday voted 6-0 that U.S. solar-panel manufacturers have been harmed by illegal dumping from their Chinese rivals, opening the way for the Commerce Department to impose tariffs. The department has said these will mainly be 24%-36%, although some face duties of up to 250%. North American firms in focus: SPWR, FSLR, CSIQ, WFR. China: JASO, CSUN, STP, SOLR, SOL, YGE, LDK, CSUN [View news story]
    will we get to see a short squeeze in FSLR?
    Nov 8 05:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney's (JCP +6.5%) apparent return to couponing has investors piling back in as shares hit their highest levels in two weeks. Retail analyst Stacey Widlitz can't help but note that it only took management two to three quarters of -20% comps to get back on board with coupons. But will long-time shoppers come back into the fold with many fashion lines quite different? [View news story]
    He's made mistakes, that's for sure...
    Oct 11 01:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney's (JCP +6.5%) apparent return to couponing has investors piling back in as shares hit their highest levels in two weeks. Retail analyst Stacey Widlitz can't help but note that it only took management two to three quarters of -20% comps to get back on board with coupons. But will long-time shoppers come back into the fold with many fashion lines quite different? [View news story]
    RJ knows that tomorrow's grandma's won't be like today's... With the cost savings management has put in place, they will be able to get a sustainable EBITDA north of 1 Bln quite easily... No matter what.

    What matters here is the change in attitude regarding Promotion, not the promotion itself. This way, next year will bring positive comps.

    Also, with such high short interest, who is there left to sell that hasn't sold/shorted yet? New announcements will keep pushing it higher, at least to fill the gap...
    Oct 11 01:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney (JCP) investors should mark February 1st on their calendar as day one of the retailer's transformation, according to CEO Ron Johnson. The exec says big sales gains and profits will start percolating in Q1 with the "adjustment period" finally over. Johnson on the 110-year old company: "We look at JCP as a start-up." [View news story]
    take it private at $33-$35 per share...
    stop losing time with conference calls and spend it revamping the stores and reconnecting with customers... If Ackman is so sure JCP is worth $70 in a worst case scenario, he should put together a bid...
    Oct 3 09:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
64 Comments
58 Likes