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AUD/USD: Bouncing in Down-Trend

The aussie has resumed its descent and reached close to previous lows at 0.9580 which might be expected to provide support. It has recovered strongly today and climbed back up although it will meet resistance at 0.9765 from the down-sloping trend-line for the move, at which point it could stop and resume its descent. The 0.9387 lows are next in focus although ultimately the target from the recent breakout of the multi-month triangle at 0.8010 provides the eventual endpoint for the move down down.

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EUR/USD: Still on Trend-Line Support

The EUR/USD pair is still trading at the level of the July '12 trend-line having pulled back to it after last Friday's decisive break proved premature. We have had three days in a row trading around the level of the trend-line but eventually I think it probably will break lower again targeting 1.2580, with a move below the 1.2795 lows confirming. In the event of a bounce I'd want to see a break above the 1.3000 level acting as confirmation for a possible rally up to the 1.3170 highs.

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GBP/USD: Bearish Target Reached

The GBP/USD has fallen to the target at 1.5010 generated after the breakdown from the bullish channel on the 10th of May. It is currently consolidating on an old trend-line at the same level and could bounce higher to perhaps the level of the monthly pivot at 1.5190. Eventually we shall probably see a move down to match the 1.4831 lows. From an Elliot-wave perspective the pattern we are presented with from the December '12 highs is probably an impulse wave with wave 5 unfolding at the moment, and likely to match the end of 3 at the very least.

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Analysis By: Joaquin Monfort, Forex4you Analyst

Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether forex trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

EUR/USD: Tentative Recovery

The EUR/USD pair failed to follow-through after the bearish break below the July '12 trend-line. It has started to rebound, forming an inverted head and shoulders pattern with a neckline at 1.2930; a decisive break above which could lead to a rally up to 1.3070 eventually, although strong resistance at 1.2980, composed of the 50 and 200-day MA could slow progress on the way up. Given the overall bearish tenor of the chart, however, and the high event risk of Bernanke's testimony today, a continuation lower is also a possibility, with a penetration of 1.2840 required for confirmation, and - in a steep down-trend - a follow-through expected down to 1.2580.

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USD/JPY: Still Channeling Up

The USD/JPY pair continues to rise within its bullish channel, although at a much slower rate then previously, and it looks vulnerable to a bearish breakdown. Momentum has, however, come off over-bought highs and given the dominant up-trend the pair will probably now rally up from the lower-channel line towards the upper line and an eventual target set after the breakout from the ascending triangle at 104.00. A move below yesterday's lows, however, at 102.34 could confirm a channel breakdown to a target at 101.35. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's speech today will probably cause some volatility in any case.

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Analysis By: Joaquin Monfort, Forex4you Analyst

Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether forex trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

EUR/USD: Trend-Line Broken

Eurodollar has broken down and closed below the major trend-line from the July '12 lows, which is a bearish indication. This morning there has been a recovery to 1.2860 but it is unlikely to go much higher as upside is capped by the underside of the trend-line just breached and a thick grouping of pivots and moving averages at 1.2870. The trend-line break suggests there will probably be a stronger move lower, with an eventual target all the way down at 1.2455 although the monthly pivot situated at 1.2580 supplies a nearer, more achievable objective.
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USD/JPY: Channeling Higher

The USD/JPY pair is steadily rising in an upward-slanting channel. The target from the triangle breakout lies at 104.00 and forms a probable eventual target. There has been some weakness recently, however, and the pair could continue selling off a little more until it reaches the lower border of the channel at 102.30. At that level, however, it would probably resume the up-trend, rebounding back higher and reaching the top of the channel at 103.50 initially, before the eventual target at 104.00.

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Analysis By: Joaquin Monfort, Forex4you Analyst - Belajar Forex

Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether currency trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.