The aussie dollar has fallen to a major support level provided by the lower boundary of the multi-month triangle it has been moving in on the long-term charts. It looks poised to break lower after showing even more weakness today. It has broken down through the monthly pivot which was adding its weight to support at 0.9835. However, a daily close below 0.9780 would be necessary for indicating a breakout. A move below 0.9580 would also give even stronger confirmation. The downside target if the triangle breaks lies at 0.8050.

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EUR/USD: Consolidating On Key Trend-Line

Eurodollar continues to consolidate at the critical 1.2860-70 level where the weekly and monthly pivot and the trend-line for the move up since summer '12 are all situated and offering support. A bounce higher is possible with - first 1.2930 at the consolidation range highs providing initial resistance - and then if that is broken 1.3000. A close below 1.2860, however, would provide confirmation of a bearish breakdown with a downside target of 1.2580 initially. A decisive move below 1.2840 might also indicate further downside to the same level.

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USD/JPY: Consolidating In Up-Trend

The exchange rate is in an up-trend but consolidating again in the 102.50s. It will probably go higher to 104.00, the target generated by the breakout from the recent ascending triangle. 104.00 is also where the weekly and monthly pivots lie. Momentum is a little overbought now however, so it is also possible the current consolidation could extend sideways for longer, or even possibly break-down, with a move below the 101.75 range lows falling to 101.25, followed by the pivots at 100.70.

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Analysis By: Joaquin Monfort, Forex4you Analyst

Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether currency trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Eurodollar has now fallen to support from a trend-line and major pivots at around 1.2860. It is currently consolidating at this level. If it breaks down and closes below the trend-line then it will signal a bearish reversal with a downside target of 1.2450 - although the monthly pivot at 1.2580 is a closer more achievable target. Alternatively a strong move above the 1.2890 highs could signal a bounce with an upside target of 1.2965.

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GBP/USD: Consolidating On Support

Cable has broken out of its channel and fallen heavily, although it still has further to go, with the eventual target for the breakout lying down at 1.5035. Currently it is consolidating on support from the monthly pivot at 1.5190. Whilst it may bounce from here temporarily it will probably roll-over eventually and reach the 1.50 target. If there is a bounce from the current level then it will probably stop at resistance from the 50-day MA at 1.5250, before perhaps resuming the down-trend, and a break above the 50-day would be pre-requisite to renewing bullish demand.

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Analysis By: Joaquin Monfort, Forex4you Analyst

Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether currency trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

The aussie has broken down out of the sideways consolidation range on the weekly chart. It will probably now eventually fall to the lower border of the multi-month triangle at 0.9780, however, it has already reached strong support from the level of the monthly pivot at 0.9830, which could lead to a bounce first, with a move above 0.9920 giving bullish confirmation of a rally, probably to parity, although overall the chart looks quite bearish. A downside breakout from the triangle is a tantalizing possibility now followed by a fall to the target at 0.8100.
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EUR/USD: Near Key 1.2870 Level

EUR/USD broke below the 200-day MA and has started a new leg lower. It will probably now continue to the strong bundle of support at 1.2870, composed of pivots and a trend-line. A break of that level would be required , however, for confirmation of a deeper move, initially to the 1.2745 lows and then probably even to 1.2675. It seems the whole of the move down from February is unfolding in an Elliot wave with the current move lower a final 5th . Any kind of a rebound would need to break above 1.3028 for bulls to get interested.

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USD/JPY: Up-Trend Continuing

The USD/JPY pair has continued rising after the breakout above the key 100 level and then above the monthly pivot at 100.68. It will probably continue higher until it reaches the target from the ascending triangle at 104.00, which is also the level of the monthly and weekly pivots. Alternatively given the up-move is now overbought, there is now the possibility that we might see a correction, with a move back down to 102.00 possible, or if below that, then back to the monthly pivot at 100.68, subject to confirmation from price itself.

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Analysis By: Joaquin Monfort, Forex4you Analyst

Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether currency trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

The aussie has bounced off the monthly pivot and the consolidation range lows at 1.0150 and reached the 1.0250 level, just shy of the key 1.0255 which would add confirmation of a possible reversal. We will probably now get a move above 1.0255 confirming upside and another leg higher, with a possible initial target at the 50-day MA at 1.0340. It is then possible it will be followed by a further move up to 1.0550 range highs. Alternatively, a decisive move below 1.0150 would target the monthly pivot just above parity at 1.0025.
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GBP/USD: Uptrend resumes

Cable is in a short-term up-trend which has re-asserted itself this morning after a few days of weakness. It seems to be forming a consolidation and rising back up into the range on the hourly chart. It will probably continue rising until it reaches the top of the range at 1.5605, and then from there it will probably even breakout higher to 1.5725. To get bearish I'd have to see a break below 1.5445 lows with the trend-line at 1.5380 affording a downside target for the move.

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EUR/USD: Upside breakout

The EUR/USD pair broke out of the triangle which formed on the hourly charts, rising up to highs of 1.3193. It has now started to consolidate at the level of 100-day MA. It will probably go higher, but the major down-sloping trend-line at 1.3200 provides tough resistance. I would want to see a decisive move above it for a continuation higher, although it would a strong bullish signal if it did, with the next target at 1.3330. I can't see bears getting interested until break below the 1.3030 lows, which seems unlikely in the current scenario.

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Analysis By: Joaquin Monfort, Forex4you Analyst

Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether currency trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

The down-trend in the aussie continues and has gained fresh impetus from news of an RBA's rate cut. It has now reached the region of the box range lows at 1.0150 where it could begin to consolidate or even bounce. The monthly pivot at 1.0195 adds further support, however, there are no signs of reversal yet and given the RBA action the probabilities may favour a breakdown. A move below 1.0115 would probably reach the monthly pivot at 1.0027. I would want to see a break below there, however, for a stronger bear break to the lower triangle boundary at around 0.9900, and then possibly lower. If there is bounce from the range lows then I would want to see a move above 1.0255 to confirm a rally up to the highs at 1.0550s.

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GBP/USD: @ resistance

Cable is in an up-trend overall but it has reached a resistance level from where it might pull-back temporarily. It has retraced 50% of the move down which began in January and is currently touching the 100-day MA. It has reached its upper channel-line and formed a possible reversal pattern. Evidence is building that it might correct back to perhaps 1.5410 and the bottom of the channel, and a break below 1.5480 would act as confirmation. Alternatively if it breaks above the 1.5601 highs decisively a move up to the top of the channel again at 1.5650 is possible.

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EUR/USD: possible reversal pattern

Eurodollar has struggled to break up into new territory and formed a price pattern instead. This is probably a reversal pattern given its fulcrum-like shape and wave patterns which indicate it probably marks the top of the 4th wave of a bearish Elliot wave, from the 1st of February, with 5th wave about to start and end at around the 1.2740 lows. On the 4-hourly chart we have broken down through the trend-line at 1.3090 but has yet no follow-through. A break below 1.3035 where the monthly pivot lies, would give strong bearish confirmation and targeting 1.2965 initially. A less likely bullish scenario would develop after a clean move above the 1.3110 level back above the trend-line followed by a probable rally back up to range highs at 1.3215.

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Analysis By: Joaquin Monfort, Forex4you Analyst

Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether currency trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

A long-term target of 1.4100 has been fixed on the 50 pip box point & figure chart as illustrated below. This is quite a reliable chart for trading longer-term based on results from the last 12 years. Now to activate the target and trigger a trading opportunity the exchange rate would have to move up to 1.3250 in the current column. This would also trigger a triple top continuation pattern, a further bullish sign. The stop would be placed at the 1.2700 level. The trend is up based on the 45 degree trend-line which remains intact despite recent price action which came back to find support and then bounced at the April lows.

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USD/JPY: Possible Triangle Forming

The USD/JPY pair has formed a possible right-angled triangle on the daily chart. This indicates there will probably be an upside breakout, which will reach the triangle's target at 103.65. The weekly and monthly pivot clustered together at 100.70, however, could provide tough resistance to more upside, and a more cautious strategy could be to wait until that level had been breached. The bearish scenario, although less likely, would see price break down and confirm a breakdown by moving below the 97.00 lows, triggering a sell-off down to 92.90.

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Analysis By: Joaquin Monfort, Forex4you Analyst

Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether currency trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.