forex4you's  Instablog

AUD/USD: Close to Triangle Border

The aussie has broken down out of the sideways consolidation range on the weekly chart. It will probably now eventually fall to the lower border of the multi-month triangle at 0.9780, however, it has already reached strong support from the level of the monthly pivot at 0.9830, which could lead to a bounce first, with a move above 0.9920 giving bullish confirmation of a rally, probably to parity, although overall the chart looks quite bearish. A downside breakout from the triangle is a tantalizing possibility now followed by a fall to the target at 0.8100.
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EUR/USD: Near Key 1.2870 Level

EUR/USD broke below the 200-day MA and has started a new leg lower. It will probably now continue to the strong bundle of support at 1.2870, composed of pivots and a trend-line. A break of that level would be required , however, for confirmation of a deeper move, initially to the 1.2745 lows and then probably even to 1.2675. It seems the whole of the move down from February is unfolding in an Elliot wave with the current move lower a final 5th . Any kind of a rebound would need to break above 1.3028 for bulls to get interested.

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USD/JPY: Up-Trend Continuing

The USD/JPY pair has continued rising after the breakout above the key 100 level and then above the monthly pivot at 100.68. It will probably continue higher until it reaches the target from the ascending triangle at 104.00, which is also the level of the monthly and weekly pivots. Alternatively given the up-move is now overbought, there is now the possibility that we might see a correction, with a move back down to 102.00 possible, or if below that, then back to the monthly pivot at 100.68, subject to confirmation from price itself.

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Analysis By: Joaquin Monfort, Forex4you Analyst

Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether currency trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

AUD/USD: Bouncing off range lows

The aussie has bounced off the monthly pivot and the consolidation range lows at 1.0150 and reached the 1.0250 level, just shy of the key 1.0255 which would add confirmation of a possible reversal. We will probably now get a move above 1.0255 confirming upside and another leg higher, with a possible initial target at the 50-day MA at 1.0340. It is then possible it will be followed by a further move up to 1.0550 range highs. Alternatively, a decisive move below 1.0150 would target the monthly pivot just above parity at 1.0025.
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GBP/USD: Uptrend resumes

Cable is in a short-term up-trend which has re-asserted itself this morning after a few days of weakness. It seems to be forming a consolidation and rising back up into the range on the hourly chart. It will probably continue rising until it reaches the top of the range at 1.5605, and then from there it will probably even breakout higher to 1.5725. To get bearish I'd have to see a break below 1.5445 lows with the trend-line at 1.5380 affording a downside target for the move.

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EUR/USD: Upside breakout

The EUR/USD pair broke out of the triangle which formed on the hourly charts, rising up to highs of 1.3193. It has now started to consolidate at the level of 100-day MA. It will probably go higher, but the major down-sloping trend-line at 1.3200 provides tough resistance. I would want to see a decisive move above it for a continuation higher, although it would a strong bullish signal if it did, with the next target at 1.3330. I can't see bears getting interested until break below the 1.3030 lows, which seems unlikely in the current scenario.

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Analysis By: Joaquin Monfort, Forex4you Analyst

Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether currency trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

AUD/USD: bear move hits range lows

The down-trend in the aussie continues and has gained fresh impetus from news of an RBA's rate cut. It has now reached the region of the box range lows at 1.0150 where it could begin to consolidate or even bounce. The monthly pivot at 1.0195 adds further support, however, there are no signs of reversal yet and given the RBA action the probabilities may favour a breakdown. A move below 1.0115 would probably reach the monthly pivot at 1.0027. I would want to see a break below there, however, for a stronger bear break to the lower triangle boundary at around 0.9900, and then possibly lower. If there is bounce from the range lows then I would want to see a move above 1.0255 to confirm a rally up to the highs at 1.0550s.

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GBP/USD: @ resistance

Cable is in an up-trend overall but it has reached a resistance level from where it might pull-back temporarily. It has retraced 50% of the move down which began in January and is currently touching the 100-day MA. It has reached its upper channel-line and formed a possible reversal pattern. Evidence is building that it might correct back to perhaps 1.5410 and the bottom of the channel, and a break below 1.5480 would act as confirmation. Alternatively if it breaks above the 1.5601 highs decisively a move up to the top of the channel again at 1.5650 is possible.

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EUR/USD: possible reversal pattern

Eurodollar has struggled to break up into new territory and formed a price pattern instead. This is probably a reversal pattern given its fulcrum-like shape and wave patterns which indicate it probably marks the top of the 4th wave of a bearish Elliot wave, from the 1st of February, with 5th wave about to start and end at around the 1.2740 lows. On the 4-hourly chart we have broken down through the trend-line at 1.3090 but has yet no follow-through. A break below 1.3035 where the monthly pivot lies, would give strong bearish confirmation and targeting 1.2965 initially. A less likely bullish scenario would develop after a clean move above the 1.3110 level back above the trend-line followed by a probable rally back up to range highs at 1.3215.

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Analysis By: Joaquin Monfort, Forex4you Analyst

Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether currency trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.