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EUR/USD: Bearish Short-Term Bias

The EUR/USD pair is trading sideways after recovered from a possible H&S top. This morning prices have risen within the range and re-touched the 50-day MA from where they will probably pull-back. The overall short-term trend remains bearish and a decisive break below the trend-line at 1.2995 would probably lead to a move down to 1.2890. To get bullish again I'd want to see a breach of the 1.3115 level although the 100-day MA at 1.3165 stands in the way of much upside after the break.

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USD/JPY: Short-Term Recovery Possible

The USD/JPY has fallen to a minor trend-line and formed a hammer candlestick on the 4-hour chart, a Demark buy indicates a recovery rally is probable, to just below 100. The overall up-trend may be capped by the R3 monthly pivot at 100.78 which is unlikely to be breached during April. A move below the trend-line at 98.25 would signal a break and a probable move down to 97.65. If we reach the 95.79 lows then we may have a double top pattern. A break below the 95.79 neckline could then open up a move down to 92.50. This April rally could be an Elliot 5th wave of the whole move from September 2012, with the potential for a correction on the horizon.

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Analysis By: Joaquin Monfort, Forex4you Analyst

Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether forex trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

AUD/USD: Pull-Back From Resistance

The aussie's rebound hit combined resistance at 1.0345 and started to fall again. It is possible it could be resuming its down-trend. A decisive break below the key 1.0295 lows at the base of the rising channel which it has been moving in would be required in order to signal a continuation lower, with the 1.0250 level then in sight and possibly the 1.0220 lows thereafter. Alternatively if it finds support at the current 1.0295 level at the base of the channel it could rebound higher. The current move down is steep and strong, favouring a break but a rebound is also a possibility because the short-term up-trend is established, and would see the pair move up to retest the 50-day at 1.0345 again.

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EUR/USD: Surprise Rebound

The break of the H&S neckline yesterday failed to to follow-through to the downside. Instead the pair printed a strong bullish hammer on the hourly chart before beginning to rise. This led to a rally to above the trend-line connecting head and right-shoulder indicating the H&S had failed. Today the pair has been correcting back down again, however, and it will probably go lower. There is support at 1.3015 from the trend-line, and break of that and the 1.3010 lows would signal a probable continuation lower to the 1.2960 range lows. Alternatively, a recovery and extension higher is also possible, with a decisive break above 1.3060 highs signalling a move up to the 1.3130 highs.

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GBP/USD: Spike Higher

The GBP/USD pair has surged up on stronger-than-expected data this morning. It is rising within a channel and it will probably continue higher until it reaches resistance from the upper channel line at around 1.5530. It may even continue up to the 50-day MA eventually after the break of the major down-trend-line yielded an upside target of 1.5700. For downside to gather momentum I'd want to see a rapid retracement of the spike and break below 1.5350, with a target at the lower channel line at around 1.5250.

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Analysis By: Joaquin Monfort, Forex4you Analyst

Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether forex trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

EUR/USD: H & S Neckline Broken

The EUR/USD seems to have broken below the neckline at 1.3005 and moved lower. Despite a strong bullish candlestick on the hourly chart, price will now probably go down towards the 200-day MA situated at 1.3022 and then probably even lower eventually as the pattern reaches its target at about 1.2850. Alternatively a break above the down-sloping trend-line formed by the head and the right shoulder of the pattern at about 1.3050 would see the H&S fail and a probable short-covering rally higher, possibly targeting resistance at 1.3165 initially.

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USD/JPY: Returning To 100 Yen Area

The USD/JPY has risen back up towards the 100 yen mark again and currently it is trading at around 96.60. If it rises further it would be expected to encounter significant resistance at the 100 level as well as the monthly pivot not far above at 100.78. I would ideally want to see a decisive breach above 100.78 to see a major breakout higher, with the 110's an eventual target. Alternatively, a break below 95.79 would signal a possible double-top had formed and a reversal, with a move lower and an eventual target at 92.50.

(click to enlarge)

Analysis By: Joaquin Monfort, Forex4you Analyst

Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether currency trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.