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AUD/USD: Continuing Towards Range Lows

The aussie is falling in the short-term and it will probably continue weakening until it reaches the weekly and monthly pivots at 1.0185 and then the recent lows at 1.0115. Longer-term, price action is oscillating within a large box range between highs of 1.0595 and lows of roughly 1.0150, at the upper edge of a multi-month triangle. A break below the 1.0115 level would indicate a strong bearish bias and probable move down to the edge of the triangle at 0.9850. I would want to see a break above the 1.0365 however before getting bullish again and targeting the range highs.

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EUR/USD: Breaking Neckline

The pair is trending down again today and we are approaching the neckline at 1.3007 of the sort of head-and-shoulders pattern which has been forming at the highs. A decisive break below 1.3000 would help provide confirmation of a break of the neckline. The initial target down would be to the 200-day MA situated at 1.2922, although eventually price will probably reach the H&S target at 1.2850, which is also at a major up-trend-line. A bullish reversal is looking highly unlikely and would have to break above 1.3075 to gain traction, then targeting 1.3185 to the upside.

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GBP/USD: Supported By Channel Lows

The GBP/USD pair has been rising in a channel for for over a month now and it will probably continue. Recently it weakened and fell back to support from the lower channel line where it could probably recover and begin a new move higher. If this happens it would probably reach the upper channel line at 1.5530. Alternatively, a complete breakdown out of the channel would be signalled by a move below 1.5170, which would give a downside target of 1.4900.

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Analysis By: Joaquin Monfort, Forex4you Analyst

Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether forex trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

EUR/USD: Down-Trend Resuming

Yesterday's steep sell-off signalled a probable resumption of the down-trend. A break below 1.3001 would now confirm the next leg down with the 200-day MA at 1.2905 providing the next target lower, and then possibly 1.2800 at the level of a key trend-line. Given the current high volatility there is still a possibility of a move higher, although it is less likely, and it would have to spike above the 1.3201 highs to get bulls interested. We might then be looking at the possible development of a broadening formation, making upside targeting unreliable.

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USD/JPY: Up-Trend Intact

Despite recent weakness the longer-term trend higher remains intact. Shorter-term there has been a bounce off support at 96.72 and the trend-line nearby. The pair is now slowly climbing back up towards the key 100 level. Given many analysts have been saying 100 yen is a probable target for the rally it will probably encounter further selling pressure and it remains an important upside target. The strength of the bounce has been rather weak and if the trend-line at 97.80 is breached I see the possibility of more weakness again, with a possible move down to 96.70, however, support there is strong.

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Analysis By: Joaquin Monfort, Forex4you Analyst

Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether forex trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

AUD/USD: Change of Trend

The aussie's break below the previous swing low at 1.0348 was key in establishing a reversal from bull to bear trend. The sell-off continues to the 50-day MA where the pair is currently consolidating . It will probably continue lower and retest the 1.0290 lows and then perhaps consolidate further before the next leg down. There is a possibility of move all the way to the 1.0115 lows again eventually too.

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GBP/USD: Possible Top Forming

Cable's recovery has stalled and it has fallen into a support zone between 1.5240-1.5260. It is still too early to say whether this is the start of a bigger fall but the short-term looks bearish and we may be at the neckline of a possible head and shoulders top. Nevertheless the pair will probably consolidate at the present support level or even maybe bounce a little. A breach below 1.5230 would be needed to confirm a continuation down, perhaps to 1.5155 where support from a trend-line kicks-in. A bullish recovery from here looks unlikely, but upside would probably reach the resistance zone in the 1.5350s.

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EUR/USD: Spike Higher Fading

Despite yesterday's spike higher the pair is currently experiencing some weakness. It will probably correct back to support from the top of the range and the 100-day MA at 1.3140. For a stronger bearish move I would want to see a decisive breach of the consolidation lows at 1.3020, to then target 1.2830. A continuation higher, on the other hand would be confirmed by a break above the 1.3201 spike highs first, with the next target at 1.3280 at the level of the monthly pivot.

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Analysis By: Joaquin Monfort, Forex4you Analyst

Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether forex trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.