Seeking Alpha

furtiv3

furtiv3
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View furtiv3's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Add Spark Networks And Give Your Portfolio Some Love [View article]
    My biggest worry is their lack of development and product innovation. Their apps have horrible reviews and their web-based platforms seem to be outdated.

    One must be extremely weary of lack of innovation else perceived moats dry.
    Sep 11 07:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Zynga Virtual Coins May Bring Higher Revenue Than The Illusive U.S. Casino Chips [View article]
    What do you think the problem with Zynga's slots and bingo games are? Can you further expand upon your comment regarding not understanding the specifics of gambling or social gamblers?

    It's a really interesting discussion.
    Aug 8 03:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Zynga Virtual Coins May Bring Higher Revenue Than The Illusive U.S. Casino Chips [View article]
    Based on play money to real money conversion rates within the current market, I actually believe that 2% is too high of a conversion percentage. It would take significant skill to convert 2% of the active Zynga Poker players, let alone from their entire database of non-gambling based social games.

    We had this discussion previously where I find those from a non-gaming background drastically overestimate conversion. They'll be even more surprised once they're introduced to retention issues...

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Good article.
    Aug 7 03:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Zynga: A Long-Term Investment [View article]
    "Be careful if any investor is banking on the revival coming off real money gaming, especially real money poker." 26 Jun, 08:48 AM
    Jul 26 09:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Does Zynga Aim To Capture With Spooky Cool Labs? [View article]
    Could you provide a link / more information on the patent specifics?
    Jun 28 04:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Zynga: A Long-Term Investment [View article]
    No, not from PokerStars (that would mean I'd have to live on the Isle of Man, aye!).

    If Zynga isn't going to rake, can you let me know what they're going to do to earn money on real money poker? Is it going to be subscription based where they take a payment processing fee on deposit?

    Are they going to run the games with a set monthly fee?

    All of these have been tried before. They've all failed.
    Jun 28 12:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Zynga: A Long-Term Investment [View article]
    You run into liquidity problems down there, because in order to make money off real money poker, you need to take a rake. For uneducated poker players, the rake at the micro (or nano, as you put it) becomes overly burdensome. They go broke quicker and the turnover lessens.

    The result is very little money being generated from the $10 buy-in tables and below.

    Apologies if this is new information to investors, but it's been clear within the online gaming industry for years. Zynga will need to fundamentally change in order to compete in that field.
    Jun 28 10:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Zynga: A Long-Term Investment [View article]
    "Micro" in the online poker industry is not a matter of perspective, it means buy-ins of $50 or less.

    If you believe that their active liquidity will be average 200k at all times, then by all means invest!
    Jun 28 07:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Zynga: A Long-Term Investment [View article]
    The DOJ has shown that they are OK as long as a sizable contributions are made. Risky bet to assume that the following won't be allowed back in:

    -- Anurag's payment (PartyGaming)
    -- Isai's payment (PokerStars)
    -- Mark's payment (PokerStars)

    And a large percentage of Zynga's poker players are NOT pre-Black Friday players. There's been much analytics done intra-industry on stake reductions. It's very tough for someone to go down in level, let alone from real money to play money.

    They lapse completely, they don't go to play money.
    Jun 27 04:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Zynga: A Long-Term Investment [View article]
    As a low end, not unrealistic at all. Here's the flow:

    Starting point = 1
    % that are contactable (not unsubscribed) = 80%
    % that don't bounce = 80%
    CTR (clicks) = 5%
    Register (remember, new registration needed) = 5%
    Deposit = 15%

    1 * 0.8 * 0.8 * 0.05 * 0.05 * 0.15 = 0.02%
    Jun 27 04:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Zynga: A Long-Term Investment [View article]
    Actually, most of the activity within the current European online poker market is made up of "micro" stakes players.

    - 87% of players currently play at a limit below $50 buy-in.
    - 76% of players currently play at a limit below $10 buy-in.
    - 40% of players currently play at a limit below $5 buy-in.

    Zynga isn't necessarily reaching a niche target group when it comes to the amount of buy-in / stakes level. They are reaching a user base that they'll need to "reconvert" over to real money play, which will see significant slippage from their current figures.

    If they are able to convert players over to real money gaming, they'll then need to concentrate on their retention rates as they'll be significantly worse than industry average. That becomes even worse if they enter into any type of network situation with an establish gaming provider, as the pre-Black Friday players will absolutely rip apart Zynga's uneducated poker players.
    Jun 27 04:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Zynga: A Long-Term Investment [View article]
    Yes, that's correct, they will not convert from a virtual good purchaser to a real money player.

    Zynga cannot and will not be a be able to compete in the real money gaming sector based solely on their background as a social gaming product. There is a drastic difference in the lifetime value of a social user purchasing good and a real money player turning over rake and fees. And there is a drastic difference between the software qualities of the companies that have been catering to real money gaming for a decade vs. the social platform that Zynga has created to cater to the Facebook crowd.

    Lets assume that Zynga can complete the bridge between social play and real money gaming for their users, they will be limited to the early life cycle of that user. Unless Zynga is able to compete with the feature set of someone like PokerStars and Full Tilt Poker, as soon as a user gets a taste of real money play, they'll look to move to a more advanced platform.

    Ultimately, Zynga has the best chance of becoming the world's largest affiliate, someone that can introduce new gaming users to an establish platform. But even then, they'll have to compete with the current set of affiliates, including the world's largest pokerstrategy.com, who has 7+ years experience of monetizing marginal quality traffic (read: Zynga quality traffic).
    Jun 27 07:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Zynga: A Long-Term Investment [View article]
    The problem is that no one knows what the conversion % will be, but based on industry play to real conversion, it's going to be more in the range of 0.25% (high end) - 0.02% (low end) than it will be in the 10% range.

    If Zynga is amazing at their conversion, which will likely need to include a set of free money offers, they might be able to hit a 1.25% range.
    Jun 27 07:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Zynga: A Long-Term Investment [View article]
    Be careful if any investor is banking on the revival coming off real money gaming, especially real money poker.

    It's well known within the online poker industry that it's extremely difficult to convert marginal quality traffic (read: free money players) into real money depositing players. The percentage that actual convert, and have historically converted, from some of the top specialist companies in the industry is paltry.

    Case in point, you can look towards the Zynga Plus Poker product which is a white label skin of the bwin.party network aimed at Zynga's UK player base.

    Using the same website you've listed above as reference for player numbers, please take a look at the failing numbers of bwin.party since their platform merger of the bwin, PartyPoker, and WPT brands.

    http://bit.ly/19t9riB
    Jun 26 08:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The SEC temporarily suspends trading in shares of Biozoom (BIZM.OB) due to concerns the company is more or less a stock promotion scam as detailed by SA author Ashraf Eassa. Last week - with the stock price about 20% higher than it stood this morning - Eassa laid out for SA Pro subscribers why the stock was likely a zero. In a second article yesterday, Eassa says he wasn't bearish enough. [View news story]
    Good job Ashraf.
    Jun 25 12:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
17 Comments
1 Like