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vermithrax

vermithrax
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  • U.S. payrolls up 113K, unemployment rate at 6.6% [View news story]
    Perhaps it makes the masses 'happy to have a job at all' and thus not press for wage increases.
    Feb 7, 2014. 10:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Daily State Of The Markets: Did Twitter Mark 'The Top'? [View article]
    welcome back!
    Nov 8, 2013. 10:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Conversations From The Halls [View instapost]
    I noticed you were away. Welcome back. I always like to read your commentary. Glad to hear you are doing well.
    Jul 25, 2013. 12:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Reasons To Leap Into LeapFrog [View article]
    Today's jump has me intrigued. I won't be buying at these prices but heres the naked put / covered call play I looked at just to see if I liked the idea of buying here.


    Buy LF @11.35
    Sell Jan 2014 $10 put for .70
    Sell Jan 2014 $12.50 call for .75

    Net entry $9.90

    Worst case the stock is 'put' to you in Jan. So you must buy another 100 shares at $10 in Jan if LF closes below $10 (not hard for it to do mind you)

    If LF closes above $12.50 in Jan your gain is 26%


    Contrast that with buying LF today for 11.35 and stock closing at 13 in Jan. Gain on that trade is 14.5%
    Jul 17, 2013. 12:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Reasons To Leap Into LeapFrog [View article]
    Reasons I like LeapFrog.

    Golden cross on June 11
    0 debt
    nice PEG ratio
    Good cash flow
    Price / Sales ratio is nice
    Price / LFCF is ok. Was better at $9 but then that's math for ya

    Today's Mattel miss did not impact LF stock. In the past misses by the other toy companies would affect LF. Is it possible investors are no longer seeing LF as another toy company and instead seeing them as a device / application company?


    CEO / CFO come from the appropriate background
    Could be a good acquisition target
    My kids play with the devices
    LF has mindshare. All the parents I know recognize the brand, most have some form of LF product
    Have created their own "app store"
    Have good licensed content


    Negatives:

    Price over $11 is too high for my tastes. We've been here before and it didn't last long. I liked LF at $9, not so much at $11 as I think the easy money has been made for the year.

    I hold shares so I hope I'm wrong and it vaults to $13 or higher. If you have to buy today I would look at naked puts / covered calls to cushion price. Given the 5% "Leap" today premiums should be higher.
    Jul 17, 2013. 11:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The carnage in gold mining stocks is not over, Jefferies says as it cuts ratings for Barrick Gold (ABX), Goldcorp (GG), Kinross Gold (KGC) and Newmont Mining (NEM) by one notch each: "With short reserve lives, rising costs, rising political risks and a stagnant commodity price... an argument could be made that gold equities should trade at valuation discounts to other resource equities. Instead, they continue to garner valuation premiums." [View news story]
    Hey Mongoose. Do you have a link to Armstrong's article? I'm searching the blogs to see if I can find reference of the July intraday low.
    Jul 2, 2013. 10:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Future For Gold Supply Looks Grim: An Opportunity For Gold Investors [View article]
    Naive question but if a guy is interested in physical silver where does he start?
    May 17, 2013. 12:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Great Trade Ideas: 30 Days Later [View article]
    I like ABX as a long term hold and as a result I like the ABX 2015 play a lot. I've added 2 of those to my play money portfolio.
    May 14, 2013. 04:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hedging The Dow On A Record Day [View instapost]
    Just got it from the app store. You just replaced an entire spreadsheet... Thanks!
    May 7, 2013. 11:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Hoppin' Pick For 2013 [View article]
    Seems locked in a trading range from 8-9.
    Longs shouldn't get discouraged though. This isn't a toy company, its a platform and app company targeted at kids. They recently opened up their platform for content developers (see their press releases).
    They've done a great job with securing content partners. They've got a deal with Lionsgate to produce more DVDs. Which also makes them a content company. As a parent I don't mind paying more for something that has educational value.
    Good price / sales. Unless I'm missing something in their latest report, their cash flow is in a great spot as well.
    I think we'll see it push $12.
    Long LF
    Feb 8, 2013. 07:06 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Desirable Growth Stocks [View article]
    Thanks as well. I am long JPM and have been waiting for another dip to buy into. I followed your original article. Thanks for posting the additional follow ups. I'll probably get into JPM tomorrow although I suspect lower prices as summer progresses.
    Jun 10, 2011. 12:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keep on Loving Arrow Electronics, Going Long Into Super Bowl [View article]
    I agree with ARW being a good pick. I've owned it since august and every quarter they not only provide accurate guidance - they also deliver the good news. I highly recommend reading their 10Q and earnings statements. They are pretty clear with their guidance and the fact that they even offer it makes me like them more.

    The tablet marketplace is starting to take off, more companies are jumping on the device manufacturing train. I think 2011 will be a great year for ARW.

    Analyst estimates are $4.37 for 2011. I think they'll hit those numbers. ARW has a 5 year avg p/e of 11.5. That puts the stock at $50.
    Feb 4, 2011. 11:42 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Top 10 Stocks for 2011 (Plus 7 Honorable Mentions) [View article]
    Nice article and good picks from 2009 and 2010. I had a couple of them in my portfolio for 2009 and 2010 as well. IMAX was fun wasn't it? I'll do some more research on the ones you've posted and see if any suit my portfolio.

    I'm responding because this is one of the few places I've found any commentary about DWA. Perhaps I'm not in the right place to generate discussion but I'll give it a go anyway.

    I own DWA (down 7%) and looking at picking up more - although I suspect after earnings might be a better entry point. I've been digging around looking for any clues on how their Holiday sales went. Based on what I see at the-numbers.com and boxofficemojo.com it looks like Q4 may not have been as strong as analysts hoped. Barron's claims Dreamworks may see a write down on Megamind.

    I ran some rough numbers (I'm no expert folks, this is just me trying to rationalize an outcome) and I arrive at a figure of $0.74 per share earnings for Q4. In my model I did not write off Megamind. S&P consensus shows $0.78. Their Q3 10-Q mentions a change in revenue reporting that may have an impact (positive) on their Q4 earnings. No clue how to model that.

    What I wrestle with most is whether they'll spring back this year or not. Its not a bad year to bet on with Puss & Boots and Panda 2 coming out. Both sequels/derivatives of previous strong franchises.

    Ultimately I'm Long DWA and here's why

    -Good pipeline of films.
    -Good balance sheet - will it attract possible suitors?
    -Consistently building a Brand with a growing library of titles.
    -Dragon was a very pleasant surprise based on a cult series of books - good potential there. I expect Dragon 2 will do very well (2013 though - have to wait...)
    -International box office gross is a strong component
    -Not many pure content mid-cap plays so they justify a good p/e (looks like the 5 yr average fwd p/e is 20)
    -Currently trades at 7% above its 52-week low


    Things I'm watching out for:

    Random blogs and articles predict declining DVD sales in favor of streaming NFLX (and soon AMZN). That said I suspect the content providers will find a way to profit. This may actually be a good thing as more people will have access to DWA library in an on-demand environment.

    Q4 earnings flop. I'm eager to get in at current price but not sure what earnings will bring. Although it would appear the market already gave up on DWA so any earnings miss may already be priced in.

    Disclaimer: I'm not a pro. I highly recommend everyone do their own research. I own shares of DWA.
    Feb 4, 2011. 12:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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