No Body. No Bio. First of all, I am personally inclined to think ten-year US bonds would be a safe play in 2016 in contrary to most professionals' collective opinion that the expectation in yields to rise would bring down bond price, while the best place to put one's money would be the US equities market. Partially I agree, to the extend there is going to be a continued and heightened merger-mania and buyback programs for tax purposes and so, buying large US pharmaceutical and cable companies would be the way to go. However, US bonds have its merits in 2016 as I shall elaborate below. 2016 is going to be an interesting year. There are three different highly probable scenarios and I wonder which is going to play out. Scenario 1: Assuming oil is a critical variable. According to James Conca, Saudi Arabia can bear to sell at $15/barrel without going bankrupt. As the US tries to break from the oil addiction, it is only natural for Saudi Arabia to lower the prices to force the US oil producers to bankruptcy. Saudi Arabia – $21/bbl Middle East – $24/bbl North Dakota – $40/bbl (http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2015/07/22/u-s-winning-oil-war-against-saudi-arabia/) From the above figure, this is a war lost, except the US congress lifted America's 40-year-old ban on oil exports in presumably an attempt to save domestic oil industry. An unattended consequence would be, the Fed would not be as free as otherwise to bring up the rate in 2016 as that would upset the bond market in which oil producers have a large percentage of financing. Some argue that even when US oil producers' hedging contracts continue to expire into the end of 2016, the US wells will still be there, the fracking technology and infrastructure will still be there, large US energy firms will mop them up on the cheap. The objective of the Saudi Arabia will be achieved regardless whether the latter happens. Oil price's implication on US bond yield will ultimately affect Chinese yuan, as the Fed will be reluctant to raise the rates and when does, raises it slowly, People's Bank of China will lower its interest rates and possibly reserve ratio. If PBC does it too mildly, it would not be able to save its metal and real estate industries- its bond market would unavoidably be in dire shape, if PBC does it too much, yuan would devalue enough to boost export however a large outflow of capital would be encouraged. Perhaps, as the old Chinese idiom goes, "bitter medicine is good", the best for the long-term Chinese economy would be fore Beijing to stop its intervene in the currency market and let Yuan fall to 7 to 1 USD and further free up the financial market for foreign sovereign fund to come in and buy up inefficient firms on the cheap. Beijing is not Icelandic government, the latter of the scenario could hardly happen, what is more likely to play out is PBC doing the Fed's job of slowing and mildly lowering Chinese rates indirectly raising the US rates, while at the same time trying to boost its export to "One Road, One Belt" partners to solve the excessive domestic production and guide Chinese economy into a soft landing. China's Asian partners would all have to depreciate their currencies to remain competitive in export. ECB would have to increase its quantitative easing too. Japanese and European stocks would both rise in this scenario, though without sustainability. Art collectibles and Swiss Franc would be a haven in this scenario. Scenario 2: Assuming critical variable to be US politics.The US wins the oil war, oil price rises, US inflation rate rises and the Fed raises rates at a faster pace, resulting in capital inflow from the rest of the world. EM markets would crash. Chinese export to the US would improve however, capital would be more expensive as supply of loanable funds would drop after capital outflow to seek attractive US assets. 200B flew out of Chinese market via illegal channels in August alone, it is not too unreasonable to expect 1-1.5 trillion to leave the Chinese market and the effects would be negative if not devastating when local governments struggle to issue bonds. There will be a flood of Chinese companies filing for bankruptcy. Beijing would ultimately give more freedom to its bond market, without sound legal system supporting market regulation, ahead of Beijing's plan. Neither Japanese nor European market would be a haven in this scenario. Art collectibles and American dollars would be, and very likely Norwegian Krone too, Norway producing oil at $40 bbl being one of a few reasons the currency would do less badly than others in this scenario. Scenario 3 Assuming Chinese economy to be the most critical variable, that is to say, US raises its rates most mildly and less frequently than most expect and ECB does not do another round of quantitative easing. But Euro to Norwegian Krone has fallen from roughly 1.35 to 1.05... Norwegian Krone would be too expensive in the scenario that oil does not drop further and ECB holds its monetary polices unchanged. Only should oil drop below $28 bbl would it be a good play to long Norwegian Krone and short Euro. According to IMF, the estimated oil price for Norway to balance its 2015 is $40 and that would partly explain Krone's current strength.
I am a former investment advisor and owner of several businesses, and consequently everything related to business - including investing, macro-economics, and emerging products and services come under my research and interests radar.
The most interesting and important to me are the entertainment industry, commodities, BRICs, and the impact of loose money policies on businesses and investors.
These days I invest only for myself, while continuing to write on a variety of financial and economic topics.
Whitney Tilson is the founder and Managing Partner of Kase Capital Management, which manages three value-oriented hedge funds. Mr. Tilson is also the co-founder of Value Investor Insight, an investment newsletter.
Mr. Tilson has co-authored two books, The Art of Value Investing: How the World's Best Investors Beat the Market (2013) and More Mortgage Meltdown: 6 Ways to Profit in These Bad Times (2009), was one of the authors of Poor Charlie’s Almanack, the definitive book on Berkshire Hathaway Vice Chairman Charlie Munger, and has written for Forbes, the Financial Times, Kiplinger’s, the Motley Fool and TheStreet.com. He was featured in two 60 Minutes segments in December 2008 about the housing crisis (which won an Emmy) and in March 2015 about Lumber Liquidators. He served for two years on the Board of Directors of Cutter & Buck, which designs and markets upscale sportswear, until the company was sold in early 2007.
Mr. Tilson received an MBA with High Distinction from the Harvard Business School, where he was elected a Baker Scholar (top 5% of class), and graduated magna cum laude from Harvard College, with a bachelor’s degree in Government.
Mr. Tilson spent much of his childhood in Tanzania and Nicaragua (his parents are both educators, were among the first couples to meet and marry in the Peace Corps, and have retired in Kenya). Consequently, Mr. Tilson is involved with a number of charities focused on education reform and Africa. For his philanthropic work, he received the 2008 John C. Whitehead Social Enterprise Award from the Harvard Business School Club of Greater New York. He is a member and past Chairman of the Manhattan chapter of the Young Presidents’ Organization. Mr. Tilson lives in Manhattan with his wife and three teenage daughters.
I am a retired global analyst, currently busy in investing and writing articles about stocks at several investing publications and websites. I have also developed strategies for creating winning portfolios according to specific formulas.
In January 2015, I was ranked among the world’s top 10 financial bloggers according to TipRanks, which holds financial experts accountable for their recommendations by disclosing their stock ratings since 2009:
Jeffrey Rosenberg, is BlackRock's Chief Investment Strategist for Fixed Income. His responsibilities include working closely with the Chief Investment Officer of Fundamental Fixed Income, fundamental portfolios and team to develop BlackRock's strategic and tactical views on sector allocation within fixed income, currencies and commodities.
Prior to joining BlackRock, Mr. Rosenberg spent nearly 10 years at Bank of America Merrill Lynch as the Chief Credit Strategist. His most recent role included coordination of strategy across all Fixed Income, Securitized Assets, Credit, FX and Commodities and formulating tactical and strategic risk-taking recommendations for external clients and internal trading desks. Jeff brought innovation to his credit strategy work producing the first commercialized quantitative corporate credit analytics system from a dealer firm. At BAML, Mr. Rosenberg and his team were consistently ranked in the top Institutional Investor High Grade Strategy teams and General and High Yield Strategy teams. The highly regarded Situation Room report, for which Mr. Rosenberg was editor and contributor, continues to be ranked among the top research reports in our industry.
Mr. Rosenberg earned an MS degree in Computational Finance from Carnegie Mellon, a BA degree in mathematics from the University of Minnesota, and a BA degree in finance from the University of Wisconsin. He has been a Chartered Financial Analyst since 1997.
I am a retired orthopedic surgeon. I spent the last seven years of my career CEO of a medium sized rural hospital system, retiring in 1994. After retirement I spent a year consultant to the CEO of a large Catholic Hospital System. I maintain an active interest in the market while managing my own investments. Technology related companies are of particular interest to me.
I mainly focus on two sectors: technology and auto industry. I am long only and I like to take a conservative approach where I sell covered calls on the shares I hold in order to reduce my risks. Some of the stocks I follow closest are Nokia, Microsoft, Ford and Apple. I believe that being able to see beyond numbers and actually understanding business models of companies we cover is crucial to provide useful insight on companies.
David Allen is a retired private investor located in Hutchinson, Minnesota. David holds a degree from the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania and has more than 30 years experience as a business executive, consultant and investor.
Active investor and trader since my teens. I retired early from my career in healthcare administration and have been a full time investor for 5 years.
I write about 3D Printing Stocks on my site @ 3DPrintingStocks.com, as well as small and microcap stocks (no pinks or junk!) at MicrocapResearch.com
I founded Seeking Alpha, and lead it for its first 10 years until I passed the CEO role to Eli Hoffmann. I started Seeking Alpha after working for five years as a technology research analyst for Morgan Stanley in New York. Seeking Alpha is now the dominant crowdsourced equity research platform.
I wrote the ETF Investment Guide (http://seekingalpha.com/article/15136-etf-investing-guide-one-page-summary-of-the-entire-guide), and I blog about startup best practices at http://davidjaxon.wordpress.com .
I have a B.A from Oxford University and an MSc from The London School of Economics, and am married with five children.
Gene Inger pioneered U.S. financial television and daily technical analysis. His broadcast stations later affiliated with FNN, merging into CNBC where he was an original Market Maven. His views have been quoted in Barron's, the Wall Street Journal, on CNN and now on his own ingerletter.com (http://ingerletter.com/) web site. Gene comments on stock, bond, dollar, oil & gold markets, with a particular emphasis on monetary policy, technology issues and S&P intraday action.
I am an activist investor in US and Chinese stocks. I was previously an investment banker in New York Hong Kong and London for 9 years, focused on Equity Capital Markets. I look at both long ideas and short ideas and typically focus on a small number on names where I can spend the time to conduct very deep research. I spend my time living between Los Angeles and Beijing, China.
John Kozey is Director of Research at KnowVera, LLC, where he oversees research and trading of algorithmic trading strategies. Prior to that, as a Senior Analyst at Thomson Reuters, he produced reports blending fundamental and technical analysis for actionable ideas. John was also Equity Research Director for Bridge Trading Company, as well as a former institutional equity derivatives salesman, sales-trader and desk strategist/analyst. He holds the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) , Chartered Market Technician (CMT) and Accredited Wealth Management Advisor (AWMA) designations. He received his MBA in Finance from Cornell’s Johnson School of Management.
Asif Suria is an entrepreneur and investor with a focus on event driven strategies including merger arbitrage and insider trading. He publishes a weekly post that includes the latest mergers and highlights the largest spreads. He also publishes a weekly post that highlights the top 5 insider purchases and sales of the week.
Asif is also one of the earliest contributors at Seeking Alpha and has been regularly contributing content since 2005.
Todd E. Campbell, President & Founder
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Mr. Campbell has been providing alpha generating independent equity research to professional money managers for nearly 15 years. In 2003, Mr. Campbell founded E.B. Capital Markets, LLC, an independent research firm serving professional money management firms. Mr. Campbell founded Gundalow Advisors, LLC, a State Registered Investment Advisor providing investment management services to institutions and high net worth clients in 2013. Today, some of the largest money management firms in the country trust the proprietary research developed by Mr. Campbell, including the Power 7 methodology featured in Mr. Campbell's book "Your Guide to Better Stock Picks: Tips from an Advisor's Advisor". Prior to founding E.B. Capital Markets, LLC, Mr. Campbell was Vice President and Partner of Alpha Equity Research, an independent equity research firm. At Alpha Equity Research, Mr. Campbell's responsibilities included institutional sales and client services. Mr. Campbell also developed new research and distribution products. Additionally, Mr. Campbell was responsible for Alpha’s individual brokerage business, providing investment services to high net worth families. In the past decade, Mr. Campbell’s articles have been featured in the Market Technician’s Association trade journal and his insights have been featured in various print and online financial publications, including Barron’s & SmartMoney. Mr. Campbell has also appeared on the financial news network, CNN/fn. Mr. Campbell is a graduate of the University of New Hampshire, where he studied English, Psychology and Business Administration with a focus on economics.
I specialize in creating opportunities involving options strategies, particularly involving tech stocks. I am also very interested in retirement strategies and I believe everyone is capable of creating their dream retirement, regardless of income level. I have degrees in mathematics and physics from USC, a M.S. in Mathematics, and I currently reside in the florida keys where I teach math.
I am currently in the process of launching a options trading site called " The Options Masters", which will feature a daily newsletter. Please subscribe if you enjoy my articles!
Helix Investment Research was founded in July 2011 by Ivan Deryugin, and focuses on leveraging secular global trends, across a variety of sectors, in order to generate long-term outperformance.
John Petersen is executive vice president and chief financial officer of ePower Engine Systems, Inc., a company that has developed, built and demonstrated an engine-dominant diesel-electric hybrid drivetrain for long-haul heavy trucks that promises fuel savings of 25 to 35 percent depending on terrain and payload.
John is a lawyer and accountant with over three decades of corporate finance, due diligence, M&A advisory and related legal services for manufacturers, innovators and investors in the energy storage and renewable energy sectors.
Over the last eight years John has earned a global following for his articles on the energy storage and alternative energy sectors. He has contributed to AltEnergyStocks, Seeking Alpha, The Street, NASDAQ.com and Batteries International Magazine. He currently works as a senior editor at InvestorIntel.
John is a 1979 graduate of the Notre Dame Law School and a 1976 graduate of the W.P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University. He was admitted to the bar in 1980 and licensed to practice as a CPA in 1981. John’s diverse experience in corporate finance, natural resource development and energy storage give him a unique and sometimes unsettling perspective on the technical, economic and supply chain challenges of the battery industry.
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Ashraf Laidi is an independent strategist and trader, founder of Intermarket Strategy Ltd. and author of "Currency Trading & Intermarket Analysis". Ashraf is the former chief global strategist at City Index / FX Solutions, where he focused on foreign exchange and global macro developments pertaining to central bank policies, sovereign debt and intermarket dynamics.
Ashraf had served as Chief Strategist at CMC Markets, where he headed a global team of analysts and led seminars and trainings in four continents. His insights on currencies and commodities won him several #1 rankings with FXWeek and Reuters.
Prior to CMC Markets, Laidi monitored the performance of a multi-FX portfolio at the United Nations, assessed sovereign and project investment risk with Hagler Bailly and the World Bank, and analyzed emerging market bonds at Reuters. Laidi also created the first 24-hour currency web site for traders and researchers alike on the eve of the creation of the euro.
Laidi's analysis of currency markets stand out based on his distinct style in bridging the fundamental and technical aspects of the markets.
Laidi's expertise in dissecting Federal Reserve policy, unraveling the cyclical relationships between yield curves, economic indicators and equity market performance has enabled him to predict the Federal Reserve cuts of summer 2007, four months prior to their occurrence at a time when the majority of economists, strategists and traders had anticipated interest rates to be hiked or not changed. He went on to call the record highs in gold and the dollar's break below parity against the Swiss Franc and the Canadian dollar. In June-July 2008, Ashraf persistently predicted the Federal Reserve would continue its rate cuts at a time when Fed funds futures were pricing 95% chance of rate hikes in fall 2008.
Ashraf Laidi's market analysis extends to the study of major equity indices, gold and oil, shedding light on the appropriate signals emerging from these markets and their implications for currencies. His specialty in synthesizing commodities, with risk appetite, market sentiment and Fed policy has won him numerous plaudits. His currency predictions placed him at the top of the 12 and 1-month ranking of FXWeeks currency forecasts and at the top of Reuters monthly Foreign Exchange Poll.
Laidi regularly appears on CNBC TV (US, Europe, Arabia and Asia/Pacific), Bloomberg TV (US, Asia/Pacific, France and Spain), BNN, PBSs Nightly Business Report, and BBC. His insights also appear in the Financial Times, the Wall Street Journal, Barrons, the New York Times, Marketwatch, TheStreet.com, Futures, and a host of other international publications. Besides his habitual media appearances and seminars in English, Laidi has given numerous interviews in Arabic, French, and Spanish to audiences spanning from Canada, Central America and Asia/Pacific.
THE VIEWS IN THE PREMIUM INTERMARKET INSIGHTS ARE STRICTLY THOSE OF ASHRAF LAIDI AND NOT OF CITY INDEX / FX SOLUTIONS OR AN ENDORSEMENT FROM THESE ENTITIES.
His book, Currency Trading & Intermarket Analysis: How to Profit from the Shifting Currents in Global Markets (http://www.amazon.com/Currency-Trading-Intermarket-Analysis-Shifting/dp/0470226234), Web site: www.ashraflaidi.com (http://www.ashraflaidi.com)