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Twolfe

Twolfe
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  • The Real Truth About Apple's Q4 Results [View article]
    Excellent. How is it that no one, including me, gave this credence? It is thinking INSIDE the box at its best. Thank you.
    Nov 14, 2012. 05:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Misunderstood By Both Analysts And The Media [View article]
    Hard to believe that a Seeking Alpha blogger has finally made sense, and more sense than anyone else. Let's add a bit: if you consider the price target responses last week by 20 legitimate analysts who weighed in post earnings, about 14 held their previous targets, six revised. Of the six approximately three dropped their targets 10 points a piece, the other three alluded to in this blog dropped 50 points but still came in much higher than current price levels. So how is it that negativity rules the day? Could it media such as CNBC who fail or should I say "refuse" to mention such offsetting positive information?
    Oct 29, 2012. 03:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prepare For The Decline Of Apple [View article]
    Interesting your reliance on tech-nickel analysis in that study after study has shown NO, repeat NO, predictive validity in either the intermediate or long term for the Big Nickel. Over a two day period, there may be some correlation, but that can be attributed to traders (or computers) having a hair trigger reaction to what they consider to be causal information. As Buffett says, turn the charts upside down and they tell you the same thing.

    As for your argument in its entirety, I would just ask if you would be willing to short Apple in your own account. Blogging is easy, a great way to avoid reality and keep snug in the bushes, but putting your money where your mouth is, is another story.
    Oct 3, 2012. 07:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Apple's Current Dip To Ride Its Likely Rise To $800 [View article]
    Finally, someone with the guts to go against the Negativo crowd (read most bloggers, CNBC so-called fast money crowd, at least for the moment Cramer, and the host of guests willing to jump on the Apple "Topping Phenomena"), yet I do have a question: you do not go into the supply problems now facing Apple. I realize you might consider them short term in nature and thus soemthing to be leapfrogged in an investor's mind, but do you have an opinion on the effects, if any, on this quarter's I5 sales and earnings?
    Sep 29, 2012. 02:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Time To Reduce Exposure And Take Profits [View article]
    It's all been said over and over in these replies but I just have to get it out of my system: your comments are well meaning but dead wrong. After every Apple release the same boring articles appear (though so far I haven't exactly seen the old Law of Large Numbers tripe - yours is a poor version). Though you allow for some continuation of growth, albeit at an eventual topping rate, an investor would be smart to stay aboard well into 2013. The supply difficulties are going to push the once celebrated near term earnings well into '13 and combined with the possibility of China Mobile, the I-5 and mini-pad cycles could last another 4 quarters, or into the 800's in terms of stock price.

    Investors should take advantage of these pullbacks along the way and treat Apple as an investment, not a trade.
    Sep 27, 2012. 07:15 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Signs Apple Is Topping [View article]
    There's a fool born to blog every minute. See you in 2013 over 800.
    Sep 19, 2012. 04:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Thermometer Points To Further Gains [View article]
    Very nice! While I distrust any forecast based on tech-nickel analysis (beyond a day or two many studies have shown that TA has little if any predictive validity - it is witchcraft for the scared and confused), your comments on herding behavior and taking profits too soon are right on point. Maybe someday in the distant future - after the market has maybe doubled from here - we will get back to the old idea of investing rather than trading.
    Sep 15, 2012. 01:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Take The Money And Run [View article]
    Just checking in Sore-ass to see how this is working out for you. Looks like the 5 might carry earnings for another year minimum. Then, oh I don't know, China Mobile? Aptv?
    Sep 12, 2012. 05:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons Apple Is A Bad Bet [View article]
    All streaks are broken - evolution itself reverts to the "mean". All stock moves are "temporary". From Ford, US Steel, GM, CSCO, MSFT, to one's life in general. There is no magic in this - a big DUH. The key is understanding the nature of "temporary" and optimizing returns during that period. When it comes to Apple, the so called temporary period should be assessed after the 5, the mini, China Mobile and possibly ApTV. Product cycles are the key to understanding "temporary" and it is foolish to think that at this stage Apple's life span is done. Granted anything can happen - Tim Cook could be killed in a car accident. China Mobile might refuse to play, whatever, but the probability of those types of events happening have to be compared to the probability of continued consumer loyalty, acceptance of Apple's features and charisma, global expansion, the momentum of it's new product releases and on and on.
    Sep 9, 2012. 01:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Apple Risks Revealed [View article]
    This is a tiresome article with relevance to all and none. It is a big DUH that can be leveled at all businesses at certain times in their development. I'll return to ask the author how it's working for him when Apple is trading a 100 points or so above Friday's close.
    Sep 8, 2012. 12:35 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Take The Money And Run [View article]
    I certainly agree with all the posters who are befuddled at this insipid article. They've said it all but I want to add just this regarding the author's mention of technical analysis. Like it or not, tech-nickel analysis has little, if any predictive validity. Study after study has shown that while there may be some very short term validity, there is no, repeat NO, intermediate or long term validity. I know, I know, it's where folks go to gather themselves and gain some modicum of would-be control, but it's a rouse, nothing more.
    Sep 7, 2012. 06:21 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The iPhone's Growth Rate Has Peaked [View article]
    Wow, Zhou, how's that call on Apple working for you? just wondering.
    Sep 6, 2012. 08:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The iPhone's Growth Rate Has Peaked [View article]
    What an arrogant response.
    Sep 2, 2012. 07:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The iPhone's Growth Rate Has Peaked [View article]
    I think it's all been said but I would just like to emphasize: every new Apple product release brings out the Doubting Thomases, the naysayers. Sooner or later the law of luck will favor one of you and you will be right, but this time I'm afraid your shortsightedness will remain short, delivering to us longs yet another opportunity to nibble away and make even more money. Thanks for the blather but don't quit your day job, unless it's blogging.
    Aug 31, 2012. 06:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Now Is The Time To Sell Apple [View article]
    There is always room for doubt, about anything. What we deal with in the financial world should be probability. The probability of the i5 succeeding is very high, based on many things, not the least of which is consumer obsession with Apple products and again the probability that it will hit the mark in terms of welcomed features and thus acceptance. There is a lot more to the high probability argument but in one form or another it has all been said.
    Aug 28, 2012. 08:19 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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