Semi-retired marketing and sales executive with a second career in the travel business. Actively invest an upper six digit portfolio in half a dozen mutual funds as well as a couple of stock brokerages accounts, most of it IRA. Primary goal is income with some appreciation potential.
Roger Nusbaum is the ETF Strategist for AdvisorShares. This Arizona-based professional has over 25 years of industry experience. He is also a well-known financial commentator covering ETFs, retirement planning and portfolio management for AlphaBaskets.com and at TheStreet.com. We think Roger is particularly insightful on exchange-traded funds, risk management and investing in international markets. Visit Roger's work at Random Roger (http://randomroger.blogspot.com) and AlphaBaskets (http://alphabaskets.com)
I have been interested in the market my entire life. From my first equity purchase when I was 15- Chrysler just before the government bailout to managing the portfolio of my father- and outperforming the major indexes with lower risk for over 20 years, I have been attracted to the intellectual and financial challenges of identifying opportunity and making above average returns- again on a risk adjusted basis.
Professionally, I am currently the CFO of a post-start up software development company with a focus on mobile telecom applications. I have served as the CFO,COO, CRO and President of public and private companies. My academic background includes a BS in accounting from the University of Illinois and an MBA in finance and corporate strategy from the University of Michigan. I have CPA and CGMA designations.
Generally, I seek outsized appreciation opportunities with below average risk and often favor stocks that have downside protection through one or more of the following- robust dividend yield, high book value, cash balance or other backstop. I tend to shy away from momentum stocks and those with very high PEs or PEGs.
When will long-term investors have any cash to deploy? If you believe in their mantra, most of them think people should be nearly fully invested nearly all of the time - it is rare to have a long term Buy and Hold investor to keep 30% in cash for buying opportunities. How much of a loss are you willing to suffer waiting for a recovery? 10%, 20%, 30%? Do the numbers and see what kind of gain you will need to recoup to the break even point on several loss levels to get an idea of how long you may need to wait. For example a 30% loss requires a 43% gain to get back to the break even. A 20% loss takes a 25 % GAIN to get back to even.$100,000 - 20% = $80,000 . 80k X 25% = 20,000 +80k =100K There are few assets like PM's that are liquid and have NO counterparty risk. If you know of any that perform that function please post it for all to see. The fact of the matter is that some people ONLY save any money because of Precious Metals. If it were not for their gold and silver many would not have any money saved or invested. They would have Beanie babies or some other fad item. The people that buy Silver Eagles are much happier ten years later when they bought those coins made of PM's for their grandchildren (or whomever) when they find out the $8 - $12 bucks they spent is worth more than they paid.And the recipient learns a valuable lesson from it. There are good gifts and not so good gifts. Silver Eagles rank near the top of the list. Don't underestimate the power for people to develop good savings habits using PM's . It's fundamental. Our welfare system is a huge drain on the economy .Those of us working for a living instead of voting for a living see huge holes in our paychecks every week. As unfortunate as it is to know that cuts to foodstamps and welfare will likely cause a bit of suffering, it’s not the job of the government to forcibly remove money from the pockets of hard working Americans in order to take care of those who won’t work. Granted, there are some people who genuinely need the help, and those folks get dragged into the mud with the abusers, which isn’t fair to them. Now, just because the government shouldn’t be “helping” those in need, doesn’t mean we as Americans should forego kindness and charity. Quite the opposite. Americans are some of the most generous people on the planet, but unfortunately, that generosity gets quelled when the government is involved.Without the government in the way, regular every day individuals like you and me need to step up and start helping those who are in dire straits. That’s how this country used to be long before all of the social welfare programs, and it’s what made our nation so wonderful. If the government insists on being “helpful,” they can start by reducing taxes and ridiculous regulations that overburden small business owners, which will free them up to expand their companies and hire new workers. Two of my favorite comments ever on SA Avi Gilburt , Contributor
WOW!!! So, I guess when sentiment is at historical lows, we MUST assume it can only continue down!! lol
All you say constantly over and over is "I don't understand how it can work, so, clearly, it does not work." That really does not need much of a "demonstration" or response.
........................ In 1971 Nixon set the price of gold at $31/oz, today it's around $1,200, so in 45 years the price has gone up 3,158% or so if my math is sound. If you bought your stock in 1971, when the S&P was around 700 you realized a very impressive gain but well short of gold and what it buys you now in 2017 .
....................................................................................................................................................... Let's say 50 years ago, 1964, your grandfather bequeathed you an inheritance worth $1,000, which he put in a pretty box with your name on it. At this moment, you are about to open that box… Would you be happy to find his personal check dated 1964 made payable to you; would you rather find ten $100 Federal Reserve Notes; or would you prefer to find that thousand bucks in the form of 4,000 silver quarters, the steady constant value of 715 ounces of silver, with a current dollar number north of $12,500? Would your choice be the same if you were putting your wealth away today for an heir to receive in ten, twenty, or fifty years?
..................................................................................................... Financial contagion happens at both the international level and the domestic level. At the domestic level, usually the failure of a domestic bank or financial intermediary triggers transmission when it defaults on interbank liabilities and sells assets in a fire sale, thereby undermining confidence in similar banks. An example of this phenomenon is the subsequent turmoil in the United Statesfinancial markets. International financial contagion, which happens in both advanced economies and developing economies, is the transmission of financial crisis across financial markets for direct or indirect economies. However, under today's financial system, with large volume of cash flow, such as hedge fund and cross-regional operation of large banks, financial contagion usually happens simultaneously both among domestic institutions and across countries. The cause of financial contagion usually is beyond the explanation of real economy, such as the bilateral trade volume.
I am a value conscious investor looking for bargains.
1) Price is what you pay, value is what you get
2) Success in investing is limiting losses when you're wrong, and maximizing gains when you're right
3) Start with business model. Margins reflect value add a company's products bring to the market place. Does the Gross Margin and the Product match? High GMs accompany differentiated products with limited competition that do not compete on price. Low GMs accompany undifferentiated products that compete on price, CAPEX spend, cyclicality.
4) How is the business financed? Be wary of companies with a lot of debt. Great businesses do not require huge debt to generate high returns on equity. There is no achievement in generating high ROEs by levering up like banks, leasing businesses (car rental, equipment rental, aircraft rental). ROA should be telling here.
4) A company's value changes because the NPV of future profits changes. NPV of future profits is a function of changes in revenues, gross margins, OPEX, leverage, taxation. A company's value appreciates when the NPV of profits goes up due to revenue growth, GM expansion, OPEX reduction, leverage (refinancing) / tax (change of domicile) reduction.
5) Markets look forward. Bottoms coincide with maximum pessimism while tops coincide with maximum euphoria.
6) A stock is not undervalued because it is cheap and it is not overvalued because it is expensive (based on traditional valuation metrics). Similarly, a stock is not undervalued because it has gone down a lot or overvalued because it has gone up a lot.
7) Look at market cap when valuing companies. Don't be overly influenced by management projections, analyst reports, share buybacks, cash on B/S, price movements, other people in the stock.
8) Companies with significant debt can go bankrupt. Cash burn typically determines if they go bankrupt before the cycle (for their industry or the economy) turns.
9) Undervalued stocks can get cheaper, overvalued stocks can get more expensive.
10) Keep emotion out of investing. You will be wrong. Unpredictable things will happen. Stay vigilant to anger, anxiety, exuberance. Stay vigilant to thesis creep.
11) Leverage will kill you sooner or later. Companies have large operating and financial leverage.
12) Have a thesis. If the thesis plays out, stay with it. If it doesn't exit. Always have a thesis.
13) Understand the business you are invested in. It's valuation and what can go wrong. Know the business inside out.
13) Don't trade.
14) Diversify. There are many good ideas in the market. Don't put your eggs in one basket.
15) Failing businesses rarely turnaround.
AB is a research-driven investment firm that combines investment insight and innovative thinking to deliver results for our clients. At AB we believe that research excellence is the key to better outcomes and as a result we have built a global firm with exceptional research capabilities. We offer a broad array of investment services that span geographies and asset classes to meet the needs of private clients, mutual fund investors and institutional clients around the world.
50/50 Portfolio; Dec 2016 YOC 10.0% about 0? months before retirement, dividends at 72% of my gross employment income. I created a High Yield Investment dividend generator that contains a 50% weighting between agency mortgage REITs and BDCs.
**** Home of the POT (Portfolio Online Tracking) tool.
My current investment method started January 2014 to concentrate on high yield equities that put more importance on income and less on capital appreciation. Investment purchase is based on each individual stock generating a minimum dividend per year. As long as stocks are generating income to meet or exceed my minimum dividend they will not be added too or removed. Currently all dividends are reinvested back into stocks that require their dividends to be increased to meet my minimum yearly dividend. We will see how this works over the years.
1) The REIT sector consists of residential and commercial property investments. What better way to invest in hundreds of properties without actually owing the physical property.
2) The BDC are Business Development Companies that invest in hundreds of businesses that create products and employment opportunities. Here again the BDC does all the research to lend to businesses and the investor does not have to actually own the physical business.
3) The investment selection is based on this principle; BDCs outperform when markets are going up (positive correlation), and mREITs, outperform when markets are going down (negative correlation). This is based on a research study performed by Wells Fargo titled “The 50/50 Portfolio, Milton Friedman’s Only “Free” Lunch. And runs through an analysis in demonstrating how combining BDCs and Agency mREITs leads to sustainable long-term alpha throughout cycles.
4) Capital gain does not apply to my investment method since this implies the anticipation of buy and hope for price increase in order to sell at a profit. I have already stated the HYBRID method holds investments based on cost basis and dividends per share as the method of yearly appreciation.
5) A bird in the hand is worth 10 in a bush, applies to this investment style. The return I get on my investment is what counts toward the recapture of my initial investment cost. I can calculate how many years it will take before my initial cost will be repaid and that investment now becomes perpetual income. I’m not a trader, just a buy, hold and collector (dividends * shares). I can’t count on capital appreciation since all investments will increase and decrease in any market cycle. Dividends I can count on as payment for investment risk that accumulates over time.
6) Update 20140612, Portfolio Plan; Build a portfolio that generates income 150% of minimum required. Example I need 10K from 30 stocks made up of REITs and BDCs. Diversification is already built into each stock because each one contains hundreds of properties and business, so 30 stocks is plenty. Now to generate 10K minimum income I will establish a 50% margin of error (or income default). So to get 10K minimum I will need 15K of income (10K * 1.5). This means each stock is required to generate at least $500/yr each. I can withstand a 33% hit in the dividends and still meet my 10K minimum requirement. That is 10 stocks can go to zero and the remaining 20 will create my minimum 10K.
7) Update 20140729, I do not invest in individual companies, too risky. The following is the logic behind this statement compared to BDC investments. If I invest in 30 dividend companies, anyone of them may have financial problems and drag down the portfolio very quickly. The Due-Diligence (DD) would take all my time to analyze past performance and make judgments for the future, and current events can tank a stock fast. Every company needs money to run operations and for capital improvements and this is where BDCs come into play. The individual company has to borrow funds and BDCs are there to provide the capital. So the BDC is like a bank to lend money. Each BDC may contain hundreds of separate loans going to hundreds of different companies making the BDC less risky than owning individual companies. If one of the companies that the BDC has a loan with goes bankrupt, the BDC will recover some if not all of the loan monies lent to the failed company, and the BDC will continue with a very small disruption to its bottom line. So in effect owing BDCs that contain hundreds of investments (loans to companies) earning a consistent repayment to principal and interest is safer than just owning an individual low yielding company. When you invest in a BDC or REIT you are investing in the managers that perform the DD by analyzing the companies first before loaning them money to run their business.
Owing 10 or more BDCs is like having investments in thousands of companies with a very low risk of any one individual company causing portfolio damage, while your portfolio grows faster with the high yields from BDCs and REITs.
8) I have developed FREE Excel applications for planning retirement during the accumulation and distribution phase, the links are in my articles, (Dividend Growth Calculator... and Predicting Retirement...) As I develop additional Excel 2010 applications I'll make them available to all SA members. We are all in the same boat trying to achieve a better life in retirement.
Mr. McIntosh is the author of the three investment books including the newly released "The Snowball Effect, "The Sector Strategist", and also "The Bear Market Survival Guide". He writes a daily dividend blog www.thedividendmanager.com. He serves as the Chief Investment Officer of SIPCO. He is the portfolio manager for the firm's U.S. Value Leaders and U.S. Corporate Bond Portfolios. He also served as a Professor of Finance at Eckerd College from 1998 to 2008.He has been featured in such notable publications as the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, USA Today, Investment Advisor, Fortune, and The St. Petersburg Times. He holds a Bachelor of Science Degree in Economics from Florida State University, a Master of Business Administration (M.B.A) from the University of Sarasota, and a Master of Public Health Degree (M.P.H) from the University of South Florida. He and his wife and two boys reside in Tampa, Florida.
I am primarily an equities investor whose foremost objective is growing income for retirement. My investment strategy concentrates on maximizing returns while minimizing risk. The Core component of the strategy is accumulating dividend growth stocks. I also utilize options to enhance income and manage risk.I started investing in the stock market at the age of 15 in 2005. All my articles and comments are strictly my opinion and therefore do not constitute investment advice, nor do they constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Simply Safe Dividends helps conservative dividend investors increase current income, make better investment decisions, and avoid risk. Brian Bollinger, CPA, runs Simply Safe Dividends and previously worked as an equity research analyst at a multibillion-dollar investment firm.
Gary A. Gordon, MS, CFP® is the president of Pacific Park Financial, Inc., a Registered Investment Adviser with the SEC. He has more than 25 years of experience as a personal coach in “money matters,” including risk assessment, small business development and portfolio management.
Gary is often asked to consult as an educator. He has taught financial concepts in Mexico, Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan and the United States.
As a Certified Financial Planner™ (CFP®), Gary has distinguished himself as a reputable and trusted investor advocate. He writes commentary for ETF Expert, Seeking Alpha and The Street. Gary’s participation on local and national radio has spanned more than a decade, and he currently hosts the ETF Expert Show.
Gary is a “good sport” when his wife, Denise, beats him at Scrabble. Most of all, Gary takes special pride in a not-so-little energizer… his 20-year old daughter, Wei Gordon.
Having recently started building a long term strategy for a dividend growth portfolio, I am interested in improving and learning better ways to identify and evaluate the future great dividend stocks.
I put a lot of faith in numbers and math, but where I need improvement is avoiding this garbage in and garbage out tendency and better understanding FCF valuations and projections.
Rob Howard is the founder of Garnet Research, an independent research firm focused on utilities.
Rob has extensive background in the utility industry. He worked for Baltimore Gas and Electric for over seven years. While there he spent time in Distribution Engineering, Demand Side Management, and Rates and Regulation. This hands on experience has given him a deep understanding of industry issues.
After his industry experience, Rob spent 13 years on the buy-side specializing in utility investing.
Rob has a BS in Engineering and a BA in Economics from Swarthmore College. He has an MBA in Finance from The University of Texas. He is also a CFA charterholder.
I’m an early 40′s Internet entrepreneur that launched several dot coms with varying success in each. At the very least my living has been made online for the past 18 years and at the most I had a fun time in each venture.
I began seriously investing for dividend income around 2007 when my business at the time was literally falling off a cliff, as most of the world was starting too as well, when my need for another income stream became more apparent. I have always known the benefits of dividends from my very first stock purchase back in 1988 but wasn't yet sold on the concept of tying up my money indefinitely purely for a dividend income stream. It was around that time that I learned about Dividend Aristocrats and Dividend Champions when it all just made sense. I could literally see the effects of compounding dividends from these select companies and thought a nice diversified portfolio could provide me with a decent to excellent income stream decades down the road.
Williams Equity Research analyzes trading strategy, individual stocks, asset classes, market sectors, and risk to reward parameters in order to provide valuable insight to the Seeking Alpha community.
The author has over 10 years of experience in the financial markets working in areas of equities trading, complex product analysis, and risk management, as well as a graduate level education in the areas of petroleum engineering (full), law (partial), and finance (MBA, partial).
Dr. Hirschberger is a Principal and the CEO of Strategic Min-Metals, AG, Vienna, a niche company focused on the exploitation of Minor Metals in selected countries. He previously organized and operated Global Min-Metal Holdings, SA, an exploration/mining company, developing Manganese ore principally in Panama. He also served recently as an independent director of a TSX-listed exploration company with Antimony interests.
He held various positions with the Wall Street firms of White, Weld & Company, Northern Trust, Societe Générale S.A. in New York and his own firm, Healthcare Capital Group, based in Geneva, Switzerland. He served as a senior analyst; Managing Director in Corporate Finance, and a venture capitalist focused on early stage medical device and specialty pharmaceutical companies, respectively.
Mr. A. Paul Gill has been the CEO of Lomiko Metals Inc. TSXV: LMR, OTC: LMRMF since June 2009 and CEO of Lomiko Technologies private) since 2014. Mr. Gill developed significant experience in the strategic development of resource companies such as Norsemont Mining,Inc. (Bought by HudBay Minerals for $ 512 million). He has held the positions of President, Chief Financial Officer, Corporate Secretary and Vice-President of Business Development of Norsemont Mining Inc. and served as a co-founding director. Mr. Gill has been a Consultant of AJS Management private) since March, 2001 and a Director with Graphene 3D Lab TSXV: GGG, OTC: GPHBF, Graphene ESD and Epic Mining Corp.
I am a MS Finance and CFA from ICFAI University. Have successfully handled large databases and huge chunks of data. My role involved preparation of equity research reports primarily on US listed stocks. It included building of P&L, Balancesheet and Cash flow statement for the next 3-5 years based on historical trend as well taking future plans and projects into consideration, Ratio Analysis, Company profile and significant events that shaped the company, Mergers & Acquisitions, Covering Significant developments that took place in the company YTD, Product/services coverage in details, Industry analysis and forecasts and SWOT analysis. We had built and developed a software concerning a comprehensive project on governance and sustainability quotient for the S&P 500 companies. It mainly involves portfolio evaluation through the calculation of scores based on the risk factors and risk mitigating factors encompassing a company's governance which will enable the investors to manage and plan their portfolio accordingly.
Four private female investors and one Dachshund.
We've consigned our careers as fund managers to the shredder, as we no longer have confidence that we can grow our clients' money anywhere near approaching the sparkling results that we achieved for them in the past.
Now Heidi and Desiree's investing interests involve global water distribution, agriculture, and timberland, while Clarissa and Helga manage strategies of certain commodities and hard assets.
We're also self-styled asset-manager vigilantes, who will bitch-slap those who take advantage of innocent retirees and other retail investors who have been ground into muesli by the Wall Street machine.
Sleazy RIA's, CFA's and 99% of the rest of financial "helpers" service their clients like Bonny and Clyde serviced banks.
As you can see, we're touchy, emotional, irascible, opinionated, and sometimes inebriated. But we admit that we do love the attention here on SA, so don't stop sending us those bawdy comments, angry criticisms, steamy love letters, veiled death threats, and tempting marriage proposals. Hey, you never know...
Oh, we almost forgot... While our names (Heidi, Helga, Clarissa and Desiree) may or may not be our real names, Schnitzel the Dachshund's name really is "Schnitzel the Dachshund."
I have worked on M&A deals in a variety of industries including retail banking, logistics, luxury retail, and printing. This has helped me develop skills not only in financial analysis but also in deciphering management rhetoric. After investment banking, I switched to a corporate finance role in a snack food business where I developed financial models for community purchasing decisions & streamlining variable costs calculations. This helped me learn the art of forecasting and understanding the key roadblocks to a company's success. Both these roles have helped me look beyond quantitative analysis and focus on intangibles that can make or break a company's future and thus made me a better investor. I received my Bachelor of Science in Economics from the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania and I have a MSc in Investment Management from Cass Business School.
I am a simple individual investor who believes that the playing field is level, but may require active management of one's holdings. I've devised a series of steps that constitute a highly defined covered option strategy that most anyone can follow and that I've described in Option to Profit (2011). Having retired from a career in Pediatric Dentistry, approximately 10 years ahead of schedule, after spending the previous 10 years working just 2 days each week, I now spend my time trading.
For almost 5 years I alerted others of trading opportunities in large cap positions through the Option to Profit subscription service, a premium subscription service that provided actionable Trading Alerts via text messaging or e-mail at my old site www.optiontoprofit.com.
As of January 2, 2017, the site and the name "option to Profit" are no longer mine. as I've again joined the dark side and taken the easy money. But I've returned to my blogging roots on January 2, 2017 by resurrecting the old TheAcsMan.com ad supported web site, open to all.
I hope you can make your stock portfolio improve the quality of your life. Whatever stage of life you are in, you can make your stocks improve that quality by putting them to work for you.
I am currently an undergraduate student at Northeastern University, where I am pursuing a major in Business Administration with a concentration in Finance. An aspiring equity research analyst, I am enthusiastic about studying financial markets and their prevailing trends. For the past five years, I have built my own financial models and have used them in managing my investment portfolio.
Additionally, I have the distinct pleasure of being an analyst for the Northeastern University Student Value Fund. We are a student-run fund with over $170,000 under management. SVF uses a value-centric approach to investing, and more can be learned at our website: http://www.svfneu.com.