Euro-area unemployment hits a record 12.1% in March according to the EU's statistics office. Although the figure is inline with expectations, it underscores the currency bloc's continuing economic woes and shows a recovery from the protracted debt crisis may still be some ways off. The news adds to speculation that the ECB will cut rates this week. [View news story]
macro investor - you have it 1/2 right.
More austerity coupled with huge tax cuts.
They are cutting spending with huge tax hikes to sustain an unsustainable debt load. It must be liquidated.
Market Notes: Time To Run For Cover? -- April 25 [View instapost]
rate cuts and continued QE is the only thing keeping the markets and the economy going. fundamentally you're right, but im not seeing anything to suggest this market has been running on fundamentals for a long time.
Bonds, stocks and gold near all time highs? who is wrong? answer is no one when the printing is in full throttle.
Milton Friedman would be arguing for more QE if he were alive today, Paul Kasriel believes; he thought it was good enough for Japan in 1998, so surely he would argue for it in the U.S. today. Undaunted, Cullen Roche thinks Friedman "had it completely wrong" in believing that the Fed could "print money" via QE: "All QE really seems to do is generate mass confusion and a portfolio rebalancing effect." [View news story]
You need to listen to friedman, and you'd figure out how he'd stand. And it would not be for more QE. http://bit.ly/ozohIj
The Broadest Rally in Over a Decade [View article]
Everyone is looking for a pull back, and there are so many shorts out there it could just fuel the rally even further. I think what's going on is absolutely absurd but Mr. Market hardly ever makes sense.
Gold COT Analysis - Following Silver's Lead [View article]
I'm a gold/silver bug, but the price action has been pretty weak the past 4-5 weeks. I have been day trading miners not holding anything over night because who knows what the next day brings. I got burned badly by the downturn in gold so my timing on the way back up has to be spot on. I've regained roughly 30% of my losses, but I'm in the camp that thinks this correction is far from over. Until gold can break the $1344-45 level and stay there, I'm not convinced this down trend is over. $1340 has been acting like a ceiling for a while now. I'm seeing much more downside than upside. That's just my honest opinion, but maybe my view on gold has just turned sour lately.
Poor stock performance and sentiment combined with attractively priced equities means we may be in a contrarian's dream scenario; does that mean it's time to get in? [View news story]
Poor sentiment? Has this guy been watching the market lately? It's been going up in a straight line! And everything is basically priced to perfection, good luck with that though. Let me know how that works out for you.
Investors continue to dump domestic mutual funds in favor of bonds, shedding $2.2B in the week ended Sept. 8 and marking the 19th consecutive week of outflows. September has experienced nearly $10B in outflows, even as the market has jumped more than 6%. [View news story]
The "smart money" is staying out of the computer driven market. It's a suckers market unless you can day trade and be near a computer at all times. And even then, with AH trading and jamming the futures, you'll lose eventually.
I know many people that got out of the market at the end of the dotcom burst never to return.
Market recap: Stocks extended gains in the final hour, as speculation that more firms will be bought or return cash to shareholders overshadowed weak manufacturing. The rise in sentiment has pushed the market to the top of its tight trading range, and a key will be whether the S&P can break 1130; it closed today at 1125. NYSE gainers outpaced losers nearly three to two. [View news story]
MarketGuy - agree completely, the effects that HFT has on the market is becoming more and more exaggerated since pretty much everyone but traders and computers are left in the market. What is more telling is the mass exodus of liquidity that's leaving the market month after month, but we are at the top of the range? And we've risen 8% in 2 weeks?
Someone or something is replacing this lost liquidity, and your suggestions may have some validity, especially with your 2.3Mn SPY purchase at the buzzer to end the session. Give me a break.
Ben Levisohn's recent WSJ articles lament the "decline" of the P/E ratio, but Peter Boockvar keeps the faith as a long-term measure of a stock's value. Against the S&P's long-term P/E of 15, he points out that it is now only at the average after hitting 31 in 2000 but cautions not to dismiss the P/E's relevance "just because one doesn’t like its direction." [View news story]
I love this argument of P/E ratios avg of 15 in the S&P...its as old as Obama blaming Bush for all our problems.
ICSC Retail Store Sales:+0.1% W/W, vs. -0.4% last week. +2.8% Y/Y, vs. +2.3% last week. The small rise in sales after 4 weeks of decline was due to warm weather which continues to hurt demand for fall and back-to-school apparel. [View news story]
Or you can say its good that it didn't get worse, and actually inched higher. It's not good, but its not worse. At this point, I'm looking to see if things are deteriorating further, or if we are stuck. If we're stuck, that's ok...I just don't want it to get worse.
Fear and the Flight of the Individual Investor [View article]
I've honestly considered not contributing to my 401K because of this high distrust of the stock market.
I've lost almost 40% in my investments, its caused me much stress, and had I just sat on bonds/CDs/fixed income with no risk, I'd be in much better shape.
The stock market is for brokers and HFT machines. It's not for any individual investor to believe in, especially as the liquidity drys up, volume dries up, so that these huge hedge funds and HFT machine can push the market with little resistance.
That sounds like a great environment to invest in. (note my sarcasm)
Market Pessimism Is Distorting the Facts [View article]
I think the shock and awe of 500K initial jobless claims is coming. Productivity has peaked and now turning over. I don't know how you employ more people when capacity is already too high vs demand.
I look at our trade deficits, as we increase our trade deficits, this takes from GDP or productivity. At this point, our dollar represents debt and is backed by this debt...not productivity. This is a fundamental fact. As long as other moronic countries take our paper for their hard work, then everything is fine, and our trade deficits will soar, everyone is happy, but as soon as we monetize the debt, and these dollars become less and less valuable...it takes more and more dollars to exchange for this productivity.
I think we are on a dangerous path that penalizes savers and capital. 0% interest hardly makes me want to save. At the same time, printing dollars and debasing the currency hardly makes me want to invest in USD denominated assets. On top of that, our GDP will be revised downward based on the trade deficits I've been seeing, it just comes down to **how much** because if we are borrowing faster than we are growing, well....that does no good.
Maybe I'm too pessimistic, or maybe I'm a realist. It's simple math, and maybe I'm simplifying too much. Or maybe, the simple math is the real answer.
Euro-area unemployment hits a record 12.1% in March according to the EU's statistics office. Although the figure is inline with expectations, it underscores the currency bloc's continuing economic woes and shows a recovery from the protracted debt crisis may still be some ways off. The news adds to speculation that the ECB will cut rates this week. [View news story]
More austerity coupled with huge tax cuts.
They are cutting spending with huge tax hikes to sustain an unsustainable debt load. It must be liquidated.
Market Notes: Time To Run For Cover? -- April 25 [View instapost]
Bonds, stocks and gold near all time highs? who is wrong? answer is no one when the printing is in full throttle.
On the hour: S&P -0.07%. 10-yr flat. Euro +0.20% vs. dollar. Crude +0.09% to $96.77. Gold -0.03% to $1692.75. [View news story]
Milton Friedman would be arguing for more QE if he were alive today, Paul Kasriel believes; he thought it was good enough for Japan in 1998, so surely he would argue for it in the U.S. today. Undaunted, Cullen Roche thinks Friedman "had it completely wrong" in believing that the Fed could "print money" via QE: "All QE really seems to do is generate mass confusion and a portfolio rebalancing effect." [View news story]
AND LISTEN TO THE ENTIRE VIDEO.
The Broadest Rally in Over a Decade [View article]
Stocks Find Support as Volume Jumps [View instapost]
Gold COT Analysis - Following Silver's Lead [View article]
Poor stock performance and sentiment combined with attractively priced equities means we may be in a contrarian's dream scenario; does that mean it's time to get in? [View news story]
Investors continue to dump domestic mutual funds in favor of bonds, shedding $2.2B in the week ended Sept. 8 and marking the 19th consecutive week of outflows. September has experienced nearly $10B in outflows, even as the market has jumped more than 6%. [View news story]
I know many people that got out of the market at the end of the dotcom burst never to return.
Market recap: Stocks extended gains in the final hour, as speculation that more firms will be bought or return cash to shareholders overshadowed weak manufacturing. The rise in sentiment has pushed the market to the top of its tight trading range, and a key will be whether the S&P can break 1130; it closed today at 1125. NYSE gainers outpaced losers nearly three to two. [View news story]
Someone or something is replacing this lost liquidity, and your suggestions may have some validity, especially with your 2.3Mn SPY purchase at the buzzer to end the session. Give me a break.
Bullish Sentiment Is on a Tear [View article]
Ben Levisohn's recent WSJ articles lament the "decline" of the P/E ratio, but Peter Boockvar keeps the faith as a long-term measure of a stock's value. Against the S&P's long-term P/E of 15, he points out that it is now only at the average after hitting 31 in 2000 but cautions not to dismiss the P/E's relevance "just because one doesn’t like its direction." [View news story]
ICSC Retail Store Sales: +0.1% W/W, vs. -0.4% last week. +2.8% Y/Y, vs. +2.3% last week. The small rise in sales after 4 weeks of decline was due to warm weather which continues to hurt demand for fall and back-to-school apparel. [View news story]
Fear and the Flight of the Individual Investor [View article]
I've lost almost 40% in my investments, its caused me much stress, and had I just sat on bonds/CDs/fixed income with no risk, I'd be in much better shape.
The stock market is for brokers and HFT machines. It's not for any individual investor to believe in, especially as the liquidity drys up, volume dries up, so that these huge hedge funds and HFT machine can push the market with little resistance.
That sounds like a great environment to invest in. (note my sarcasm)
Market Pessimism Is Distorting the Facts [View article]
Productivity has peaked and now turning over. I don't know how you employ more people when capacity is already too high vs demand.
I look at our trade deficits, as we increase our trade deficits, this takes from GDP or productivity. At this point, our dollar represents debt and is backed by this debt...not productivity. This is a fundamental fact. As long as other moronic countries take our paper for their hard work, then everything is fine, and our trade deficits will soar, everyone is happy, but as soon as we monetize the debt, and these dollars become less and less valuable...it takes more and more dollars to exchange for this productivity.
I think we are on a dangerous path that penalizes savers and capital. 0% interest hardly makes me want to save. At the same time, printing dollars and debasing the currency hardly makes me want to invest in USD denominated assets. On top of that, our GDP will be revised downward based on the trade deficits I've been seeing, it just comes down to **how much** because if we are borrowing faster than we are growing, well....that does no good.
Maybe I'm too pessimistic, or maybe I'm a realist. It's simple math, and maybe I'm simplifying too much. Or maybe, the simple math is the real answer.