mavericks

Another Crisis Looms Right Around the Corner

Oh my God, help us! It won't be long before the Govt. sends secret agents over to our homes every day just to keep an eye on us!!!!!

Oh wait...that's just the mailman.


On Nov 25 10:14 AM allforone wrote:

> Our uber-liberal electorate is working hard to destroy the American
> economy, beginning with taking over the banks and auto industry.
> Next targeted is the 1/7th of our health economy, next will be the
> energy sector until everything is under 100% government control.
>
> I would hate to see the private ownership of gold being made illegal
> again by our elite electorate - by making it a crime to buy or sell
> bullion privately without government intervention and forcing citizens
> to register gold like weapons.
> Other than that, at this point in time I still have a job.
> Have a great Thanksgiving, all.

Another Crisis Looms Right Around the Corner

Finally, a rational voice in a sea full of gloom. Wait until the health care bill is passed...then you'll see the Fed gradually drain liquidity as they put the weight of the globe back on the shoulders of the private sector where it belongs (pardon the Atlas Shrugged metaphor).

The Empire Will Strike Back, Stocks Will Recover - For a While

"This rally continues to be the most hated rally in history."

Speak for yourself. I love it!

Dow Target 6,617, October 25, 2009: Here Is Why

The only way this happens is if the banks and the brokerage firms de-leverage again en masse. Unless you come up with a scenario why they would do this, I don't see your downside targets happening. It's not going to be due to unrealistic earnings estimates or historical mirrors.

Recession Is Over: Long Live Depression

"Let's hear some real solutions other than the same old kindergarten class warfare from the Left. "

Hilarious! The most radical leftist couldn't come up with better solutions!!


On Aug 02 10:45 AM Glen L. wrote:

> @studiophoto: you need to read some Hazlitt, at the very least.
> The problem with "cash for clunkers", in addition to the ones Peter
> and others here have pointed out, is that the money given to the
> recipients is money stolen from productive Americans, who would otherwise
> save it or use it for business and job creation. Dealers and others
> who see their bottom lines boosted by theft should be ashamed of
> themselves, and look for honest work.
>
> @Chris Cook: you need to read some more Schiff, if you think he
> doesn't have ideas on a sustainable economy. First would be the
> abolition of the Federal Reserve and the breaking up of the banking
> cartel puppet masters that are ruining our nation; followed by a
> free market in money and a true gold standard, which would level
> the playing field and take away the ability of the government to
> wage incessant wars and create trillion dollar boondoggle programs
> that are idiotic in conception and disastrous to freedom.
>
> Let's hear some real solutions other than the same old kindergarten
> class warfare from the Left.

Interview with Peter Schiff: Reflating the Bubble

Oh, now PS says stocks are going to rise! "Eventually real estate prices will start to rise, stock prices will start to rise; but Americans aren’t going to be richer because the cost of living is going to rise a lot faster."

Gee, thanks Peter...I thought stocks were going to fall off a cliff! What happened to that theory? Frankly, I put alot more faith in Bill Gross over at PIMCO. He said...and I think he's exactly right...as long as the Govt. doesn't pump in more capital than was lost by the private sector...inflation will not be a problem. Makes sense that the Govt. is just trying to fill in what was lost...and hopefully at a profit since they are now one of the largest holders of financial securities.

Peter Schiff will end up being wrong.

In Defense of Peter Schiff: A Response to Mish

Defending Peter Schiff? This is a guy who has done nothing but add to the crisis of confidence by exacerbating the current economic despair. He may have called the crisis here in the US, but going around calling for the second coming of the depression puts him in the same catagory as chicken little, IMHO. He is no friend of the US.

"With Barack Obama now waiting in the wings to conjure a newer New Deal, far larger than even FDR could have imagined, and at a time when we cannot even afford the old one, this will not be your grandfather's Depression. It may be much worse." - Peter Schiff, Oct. 2008

Sentiment Overview: Lopsided Demand for Call Options

Or MarketWatch, better known as Market(death)Watch.


On Jan 11 04:17 PM jepittman wrote:

> You must not be reading the comments on SA.

Bear Market Rally or New Cyclical Bull Market? Too Soon to Tell

Do let us know when the "leading economic indicators we track from the Economic Cycle Research Institute turn up."

Say Goodbye to a Bear Market Rally after Madoff's Ponzi Scheme

The commercial real estate bomb seems to be the latest cataclysm forecast. Of course, that could happen if nothing is done but since most shopping malls and commercial buildings rely on large/chain tenants, who's to say there will not be re-negotiated terms in the future? If they're trying to do it in the residential market, they will certainly try and do it in the commercial market. They should have more success in the commercial market too since the biggest tenants are better capitalized and the landlords can't afford to lose them. Hmm, maybe that's where all that tarp money is going to go rather than residential.

In Madoff We Trust

Ponzi scheme is a bit of a misnomer since most of Madoff's investor's were with him for years and I would argue that it was probably his oldest clients who were least likely to pull money from him. What happened was that many investors were being paid out assumed 'profits' in monthly, quarterly or annual disbursements. Everyone thought it was like an annuity payment. Foundations needed disbursements for donations, individuals needed money for living expenses, fund of funds moved assets out for re-balancings. Since everyone got their checks like clockwork, nobody had any reason to doubt that the 'Jewish bond' was paying out its 10% profits while their principal was safe and sound. Unfortunately, Madoff wasn't making 10% so the '$50 billion' he managed was being widdled away each year by the billions which were being paid out.

Stocks Rebound but Credit Markets Show No Signs of Improvement

Headline is misleading since it implies the credit markets haven't loosened at all. Ted spread had already come down significantly to more normalized levels over the past couple months even if 1 week showed no improvement. The question is where it goes from here.

The VIX Is Less Than Perfect for Market Timing

The VIX may be a great short term bottom indicator in an overall bull market, but when you're going thru a long drawn out market decline like we're in, most smart players arent buying puts 30-days out. They're shorting the Q's, SPY, XLF, etc. Something like 50% of the Q's and SPY shares are short and who knows what the XLF is. That's the hedge du jour now.

June ETF Short Interest Surges

According to ETFconnect.com, there are 476,300,000 shares of the SPY. If there are 197,400,000 shares short then that represents 41.4% of the outstanding shares. That is a huge percentage though the question is how that compares historically.

VIX Is Complacent, Despite New 2008 Dow Low

Why buy put options when you can easily short the DIA, SPY or QQQQ? You get instant protection whereas options may not give you a 1 to 1 hedge for another couple hundred points down or so. Obviously, investors are choosing to short ETF's as a hedge. I would like to see a new index which takes into account the % long vs. short of the 3 major ETF's as noted above. I would imagine THAT indicie is off the chart.