Rakesh V

Gold Entering Traditionally Strong Period of November and December

To,
Dear friend,

i would like to congratulate for your wonderful article and good speech since i dont have the talent like you.

But as far as Gold and Price are concerned, i belive that Gold can trade lower in the month of November and my support is US$971, and US$954, the guds to give call or anticiapatation about gold is very sure becuase whatever the prices are today or last week we have already forecasted and our target was US$1080, (ibma.org.in, Fundamental Report Section). now after that we have given selling call in gold and silver at US$1054 or high price upto Rs.1070, for downside target of US$1024, is good suppport in any downward trend, i would like to tell the world to remove the upside position in gold at higher price upto U$1052 because gold can go down heavily in next weeks,,,,, same with silver we have given sell call at US$18.36 for downside buy target of US$15.59, (ibma.org.in article).

Reason behind the bearishness in market are many but one major is lacking physical demand in india. India is biggest consumer in the world which account 20% of gold consumption and now the recent policy presented by 2009 budeget indicates more downward movement, if gold production is 2500 and india stop consumting the 700 tonne per year then automatic supply comes in market or addition of 400 tonnes, just becuae of higher import dury on gold Rs..200 10 gm and silver 520 per kg.

No doubt china and Russia are more impactfull country but both are producing good amount of GOLD in their own country with good purity so they dont need to buy from international market even they want they can by from IMF (if they sell) and Russia (will sell to domestic users). so the suppy is there but where is demand... Tell me any country like India, Turkey. etc .... China is buying on phobia of dollar fall but i belive dollar will stable very soon.

Just cross the finger and wait for US$954 in coming weeks and Rs.15095 are price i am looking for in coming days.

Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX): Cash Flow Is Key

I would suggest the Gold miners not to hold the any gold stock in their portfoloi as we know that they are giving less return ,

Mostly the cash cost of mines decreaed in last few months....increased the supply of gold mines

Roger Wiegand: After Bitter Winter, Brace for Spring Meltdown

Gold in 3/6 months to trade in US$995 to US$847 and then again US$900 to US$700 in coming months be ready for it, forgot the people who tell you that Gold at US$2000/US$5000.......

Gold/Silver Ratio Is High, But It's Been Higher

Ya but you miss one point which is very important and matter to discuss , why gold to short and why silver to long............. so my answer is simple is DELEVERAGING PROCESS ........ DO you know guys what is impact of deleveraging on gold and silver ..........deleveraging is process where higher prices are opprtunity for the funds and inverstors(Those people who bought at US$690 to US$600 level. now what is meaning of this the reason is simple that the people who forgot to book profit at higer prices and if prices are under their value can make profit at higer prices.... but they wont book profit in silver since silver is silver poor, rich everyone has reason to smile on silver.......


So long term i see Silver between US$14 to US$17 , in Rs.terms it can touch at Rs.21200/Rs/24000/Rs.2... are my targetsssssssss.......... so guys see you at that prices.

The Intrinsic Value of Gold

I beleive that the intrinsic value of gold is not US$400/OZ, i see the value at US$460/OZ...........yo... would like to know why US$469/OZ.... please have a look at this.

whenever considering the I.V(intrinsic value ) one has to keep in mind the prodcution cost/cost of accounting. which i beleive that depends on each countries export/import mangament. E.G South Africa has production cost of US$460, Whereas Australia has production cost of US$480. if you will see the differce of US$20 indicates that countries financial managment also. Now i beleive China the real player in Gold production is coming with US$420 which is exceptional down,also indicates that they can produced more and more gold in coming years.

No doubt that it take times from exploration to sell its is big process and hurdles are many specially political intervention. ........

Yes i do agree with your view that position can short Sell at US$-890/920, for Buy target of US$750/590, upside resistance we found at US$1030/US$1080.......... i will sell at strenth only if i enough margin to hold the position even if it goes up US$150- from my prices. so please specualators should be away from this call, i will welcome the commercial and Gold stock (Equities Traders.) and Hedge funds.

Hedge Fund Redemptions May Crash Q1 Markets

i dont agree with this article the reason behind this is very simple, that consumptiion from the major consuming countires will be declined and is still declined if it reach upto 4-5000 ouce dollar that means only funds can make this possible not the real consumer.
Second thing is that funds will be sell gold at every higher price because of deleraging expected to be continue at least for sometime ..... only funds can make it possible if they are able to invest and ready to loss ....world economy mostly reduced the consumption capacity second thing selling from IMF (gold ) can take prices belwo the 600 ounce dollar....

ok gold stock can be rise between the time.. since they are always bullish , but the dollar expected to be recover very soon currently trading at 77 but it can be highe above 100 very soon and next year which will be the main reason of higher gold prices in future...... i am going to make my short postion from US$890-850 for short term target of US$690 and then US$590 ..........upside price can rise upto US$1080

Gold Market Price Points to Watch

Actully your view is right but my dear freind did you notice that COT at every friday which indicates some bullishness is still remain. See the deleraging process if you will calculate then you will find out at what point they will halt their positsion(Ref.my aricle DELEERAGING PROCESS TO END BET WEEN US$720-- TO US$690......i have already mention in my arcile (goolge search-Type-Rakesh Varasia)....i was bullish at US725 dollar for target of US$763 which already strike yesterday.... because i cant wait market to bearish since i am Analyst i want daillly volme .....



Now i think market to bottom soon at US$684.......... so i have storng selling call at this level.........but dont forget above CHINAS SUDDEN CONVERSION of US$1.70 trilliion in to gold ...i think they will increase their reserve buying gold at this moment...................

Jim Rogers on China

I agree at some point that bull for china , but i beleive giving view for years on years is not good sign of any economist, Even if china is bullish they will not buy anything beyond their price limit or without the need also.... i beleive china will grow in Stock as well as commodity from JAn-2009 only in first quarter next year after that it will again go down,... reason is export slowdown because of u.s less demand for chinese product and most imp is PETRONET which give biggest contribution to china GDP is expected to slowdown for first quarter ....i think now china will think about the Inflation to ease for shorter term.....so bulls are there but the company of BEARSssss