Carlton Chin's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/user/677712/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/881011/comments?source=feed#comment-9799241 9799241
While inflation may not rise rapidly in the near-term (still have economic drag), printing money will eventually create inflation. And -- at least for now -- that is what the gold market is reflecting. Stay-tuned...]]> Mon, 24 Sep 2012 12:49:30 -0400
While inflation may not rise rapidly in the near-term (still have economic drag), printing money will eventually create inflation. And -- at least for now -- that is what the gold market is reflecting. Stay-tuned...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/277851/comments?source=feed#comment-5129231 5129231
It's funny that you posted your comment when you did. (I recently did some research on rebalancing.) There's a tradeoff between staying true to the desired asset allocation -- versus: execution costs (commission and slippage), and normal market action (fluctuations, trends).

Rebalancing too frequently can create extra costs. On the other hand, rebalancing infrequently allows the asset mix to drift -- and can increase risk (nominal risk and risk relative to the desired mix). Based on other publications -- as well as Monte Carlo simulations I performed -- the data DOES show that rebalancing too frequently can give up some gains in exchange for potential expected asset mix drift. This is evidence of how markets can trend -- and yield excess performance for holding assets that are trending... (But some of these topics might be the topic of other research/articles)... The "sweet spot" for rebalancing seems to be 6-14 months, depending on the assets/investment vehicles -- and investment goals.

Interestingly, some products (like commodity indices) are designed to rebalance annually rather than monthly (or even daily)... ]]> Sat, 05 May 2012 09:11:30 -0400
It's funny that you posted your comment when you did. (I recently did some research on rebalancing.) There's a tradeoff between staying true to the desired asset allocation -- versus: execution costs (commission and slippage), and normal market action (fluctuations, trends).

Rebalancing too frequently can create extra costs. On the other hand, rebalancing infrequently allows the asset mix to drift -- and can increase risk (nominal risk and risk relative to the desired mix). Based on other publications -- as well as Monte Carlo simulations I performed -- the data DOES show that rebalancing too frequently can give up some gains in exchange for potential expected asset mix drift. This is evidence of how markets can trend -- and yield excess performance for holding assets that are trending... (But some of these topics might be the topic of other research/articles)... The "sweet spot" for rebalancing seems to be 6-14 months, depending on the assets/investment vehicles -- and investment goals.

Interestingly, some products (like commodity indices) are designed to rebalance annually rather than monthly (or even daily)... ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/315072/comments?source=feed#comment-2122133 2122133 Wed, 21 Dec 2011 19:30:19 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/277851/comments?source=feed#comment-1748050 1748050
wallstreetpit.com/7892...

Thanks again to everyone -- for ALL of the comments -- and interest in this subject.

I am interested in ETFs and low-cost funds that offer exposure to alternative investments and other low-correlated strategies; please add your favorites via comments here -- or via pm/email. ]]> Thu, 07 Jul 2011 08:52:08 -0400
wallstreetpit.com/7892...

Thanks again to everyone -- for ALL of the comments -- and interest in this subject.

I am interested in ETFs and low-cost funds that offer exposure to alternative investments and other low-correlated strategies; please add your favorites via comments here -- or via pm/email. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/277851/comments?source=feed#comment-1745433 1745433 - I like the Vanguard funds due to fees, etc.
- Some people might prefer to use one family of funds to reduce paperwork. This is why we listed some of the associated Vanguard funds.
- I DO like the SPY -- as well as the ideas mentioned about Rydex's equal-weight ETFs.
- This allocation tries to make use of both diversification benefits as well as the output of intermediate to long-term trading models. (I am mentoring a university's financial markets class -- and will publish results of regularly -- so the model's results are more "forward-looking" than "based on backtesting").
- Rebalancing -- this is meant to be an intermediate to long-term allocation, with rebalancing perhaps quarterly to annually.

VERY insightful comments by all!! Thank you for reading!]]> Wed, 06 Jul 2011 07:49:01 -0400 - I like the Vanguard funds due to fees, etc.
- Some people might prefer to use one family of funds to reduce paperwork. This is why we listed some of the associated Vanguard funds.
- I DO like the SPY -- as well as the ideas mentioned about Rydex's equal-weight ETFs.
- This allocation tries to make use of both diversification benefits as well as the output of intermediate to long-term trading models. (I am mentoring a university's financial markets class -- and will publish results of regularly -- so the model's results are more "forward-looking" than "based on backtesting").
- Rebalancing -- this is meant to be an intermediate to long-term allocation, with rebalancing perhaps quarterly to annually.

VERY insightful comments by all!! Thank you for reading!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/277851/comments?source=feed#comment-1743242 1743242 Tue, 05 Jul 2011 08:09:03 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/677712-carlton-chin/148119-modeling-march-madness-as-a-marketplace?source=feed#comment-1533571 1533571
whowillwinthebiggame.b...]]> Thu, 17 Mar 2011 11:35:58 -0400
whowillwinthebiggame.b...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/236692/comments?source=feed#comment-1310851 1310851
Thanks to the team at SeekingAlpha.com!]]> Wed, 17 Nov 2010 10:27:59 -0500
Thanks to the team at SeekingAlpha.com!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/236692/comments?source=feed#comment-1305888 1305888
In the second chart (Managed Futures program), the maximum is 12%. ]]> Sun, 14 Nov 2010 09:24:25 -0500
In the second chart (Managed Futures program), the maximum is 12%. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/677712-carlton-chin/105288-championship-traits-that-win-world-series?source=feed#comment-1283248 1283248 ___

SF fans may prefer the NY Times article -- since the article (which focuses on the numbers) leans to the Giants...
bats.blogs.nytimes.com.../

Texas fans may prefer this article, by my co-author, who goes for the softer "psychological" factors.
www.northjersey.com/co...

For purposes of the book's blog "prediction record," the "official" selection for the World Series will remain the Giants (the original pre-World Series-published article in the NY Times) -- based on our "quant facts."

Happy Halloween!]]> Sun, 31 Oct 2010 08:49:55 -0400 ___

SF fans may prefer the NY Times article -- since the article (which focuses on the numbers) leans to the Giants...
bats.blogs.nytimes.com.../

Texas fans may prefer this article, by my co-author, who goes for the softer "psychological" factors.
www.northjersey.com/co...

For purposes of the book's blog "prediction record," the "official" selection for the World Series will remain the Giants (the original pre-World Series-published article in the NY Times) -- based on our "quant facts."

Happy Halloween!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/215457/comments?source=feed#comment-1124228 1124228
Very sophisticated questions.

More realistic estimate of probabilities: I like semi-deviation as an easy-to-explain measure (volatility and risk to the downside). Additional measures that help describe return distributions -- would involve calculating additional "moments" such as skewness and kurtosis (the fat-tailed distributions that many investment strategists strive for = minimize losses, fattening profits).

Semi-correlation is somewhat similar to correlation, except it studies periods where certain assets decline. This can give a "true" measure of diversification during financial crises.

There is also a branch of statistics that studies the probability of big dislocations such as crashes in markets (Extreme Value Theory) - which is very interesting...

We can communicate via email / PM as well.

Thanks,
Carlton]]> Tue, 20 Jul 2010 19:14:36 -0400
Very sophisticated questions.

More realistic estimate of probabilities: I like semi-deviation as an easy-to-explain measure (volatility and risk to the downside). Additional measures that help describe return distributions -- would involve calculating additional "moments" such as skewness and kurtosis (the fat-tailed distributions that many investment strategists strive for = minimize losses, fattening profits).

Semi-correlation is somewhat similar to correlation, except it studies periods where certain assets decline. This can give a "true" measure of diversification during financial crises.

There is also a branch of statistics that studies the probability of big dislocations such as crashes in markets (Extreme Value Theory) - which is very interesting...

We can communicate via email / PM as well.

Thanks,
Carlton]]>