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gdehuff
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Retired after 38 years in the Forestry and Wood Products Industry.
  • Housing's big ship will be slow to turn around
    PCL doesn't expect housing supports to return to normal for 5 years. (See article at:
    http://www.reuters.com/article/idCNN2528378320101025?rpc=44)

    Tends to support my opinion that there is no hurry to jump into timber based stocks as expressed in my comments to this SA article http://seekingalpha.com/article/227567-timber-sells-near-1977-prices-one-way-to-profit?source=commenter


    Disclosure: Long WY from former 401K - will probably move it to RYN
    Oct 26 6:05 PM | Link | Comment!
  • 8/1/2010 - Globalization Hits the Fan
    If Globalization is reality and it is also a zero sum game then:

    1) Those who can't provide a product at a competitive price must go through the pain of deflation to get back into a competitive position.

    2) Those who can provide a competitive product will get thirsty for a better standard of living and inflation will step in and eventually cause them pain.

    3) So everybody is on the same sine curve roller coaster just at different points on the curve.

    4) It would seem that trying to avoid/postpone the logical consequences of globalization only increases the amplitude of the sine curve and makes everything worse in the long run. Consider a roller coaster. As you increase the height of the fall while increasing the percent slope you eventually reach free fall and the roller coaster, cars, and occupants all disassemble at the bottom of the fall.

    5) So the only things that it would be nice for a government to do are:
    A) Dampen the amplitude. But no, that would be a dis-incentive to profit and growth (amplitude). Just like a junkie we must have the stimulus. People are gonna get hurt, we must do something. So now that the dam is breaking, we are going to swim upstream and get more people hurt by encouraging individuals and our country to spend beyond their means again. It worked so well for housing, we need to do it everywhere.
    B) Lengthen the slope (decrease the angle of slope). But no, Globalization doesn't allow us to do that since we don't even control the market inside of our own roller coaster park. Prior to the dam breaking, international trading agreements removed all of the rock outcrops and large boulders from the stream so now we can't even take cover from the raging torrent.
    C) Didn't a few countries like the USSR even go so far as to have the government control both supply and demand - Don't remember that it worked too well.

    6) So since the government can only make things worse, let's get government back to it's constitutional basics, let the mess hit the fan, and let each of us make the best of it as provided for by laws that are enforced so as to truly punish / ruin / inflict serious long term damage on those who hurt others.
     Getting washed downstream won't kill as many people as trying to swim up stream as long as Uncle Sam seriously hurts those standing on the shore who are extorting or pushing back against those who are trying to climb out of the torrent onto shore.

    This is a rework of a 7/25/10 comment to Deflation: Pay Close Attention [View article]


    Disclosure: No Positions
    Aug 01 7:44 PM | Link | Comment!
  • 7/26/10 Gold Bugs are Defensive
    Observations: Of all of those commenting on SA over the last week, Gold Bugs interest me the most. They seem to get quite defensive when anyone brings up the idea that gold might be in a bubble. Some have very rational calculations to support their belief that gold is going higher. Some just keep repeating a mantra. It is pretty clear that they all have made good money and want to ride the ten year trend for many more years. They appear to be heavily invested and their reactions suggest that they are quite concerned that somebody hollering "fire" could cause a mass exodus.

    My gut: This observation affirms my prior belief that the risk / reward ratio is just too high to be getting into gold now.

    For Consideration: The Silver Bugs seem to have more to support their case if what they say is true. One even claimed that some study showed that there would be no more silver in the ground to mine in 5-10 years. Seems that back in the 70's we had studies that said that we would be out of oil by 2010.


    Disclosure: "No Positions"
    Tags: Gold, Silver
    Jul 26 9:09 PM | Link | Comment!
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