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glworden

glworden
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  • SPXU And UPRO: Patience And Reasonable Expectations Are Key To Trading Leveraged ETFs [View article]
    You are glossing over the important information that this poster just provided to you. Your opinion doesn't matter, and it's wrong. The point is, UPRO is designed to triple SPY returns ON A DAILY BASIS. It is reset every day. If you are holding for months, then you may encounter periods where your return differs drastically from expectations. A gain in SPY can even be a loss for UPRO. This is an important detail, and you shouldn't so cavalierly dismiss it. The UPRO NAV is less of a factor than with other ETFs.
    Mar 27 09:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Google Be Generous To Us Once Again? [View article]
    Apparently so.
    Aug 19 08:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Story Worth Mentioning  [View instapost]
    One would think that there are other blogs/websites that would address this need, but I can't think of any. SA provided the most diverse and lively discussion. It seems like dropping the options section shows lack of respect for this approach. Value and fundamental investors often degrade it as gambling and even decry that it has a negative effect on the markets. But it can and does work for some people, and it deserves equal consideration. Perhaps they just got tired of the recent rancor. If that's the case, it's their own fault for not holding certain contributors to high standards for professional and courteous conduct. In any case, it's too bad, because the options section exposed me and others to a lot of interesting ideas.
    May 16 09:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Story Worth Mentioning  [View instapost]
    Disagree. The volume of critical comments is appropriate and not at all off topic. If somebody goes on a trading forum, makes outrageous claims, then goes into attack mode at any criticism or even questions, then the criticism is deserved. It is useful in the sense that the red flag is raised, and appropriately so.
    May 11 10:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lessons From Apple Crash [View instapost]
    The voice of reason.
    Apr 24 12:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Definitive 17 Cardinal Rules For Investing Success [View article]
    You've NEVER lost money in a position? That's incredulous.
    Apr 21 02:11 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Story Worth Mentioning  [View instapost]
    You offered it to others. And asking you to front and risk your own money is pretty outrageous of me. I just can't afford to lose 25K.
    Apr 21 02:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Website Is Officially Up And Running - WWW. KEVINMOBRIEN.COM [View instapost]
    Kevin has his own website where one presumes there would be a lot of discussion about implementing his model.

    As to discussions on day-trading options, SA forums might be a good place, but I can't think of a reason why Kevin's indicators would be an appropriate starting point. Can you?
    Apr 18 11:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Website Is Officially Up And Running - WWW. KEVINMOBRIEN.COM [View instapost]
    Another very basic question, quikdtor, why in the world would you trade monthlies in a day trading system with trade durations of 5 minutes to a couple hours? Monthlies cost more, especially to get DITM, and the % return is reduced because of this cost. Kevin claims that the monthlies give you a greater safety margin. How can this even be an issue if the trade is of such duration that time decay does not apply?

    He has actually tried to answer this question on the forum. He developed the system with monthlies, and they give him a margin of error. Does that really answer the question, or does it evade it?

    I think the truth is that he needs that margin of error because he is not truly committed to intraday trades. Monthlies might work better for him because he does in fact hold overnight. So if you want to trade like Kevin, buy monthlies, be prepared to hold overnight if your trade doesn't pan out, and have faith like he does that these things always reverse in his direction if the indicators were right to begin with. I can't say he is wrong in this assertion because he gives us no examples to observe. But these are not the simple day trades he describes in his book.

    He's been asked about the monthlies. He answered - I guess as best he could - but not to my satisfaction. So this is a point where normal people would agree to disagree.
    Apr 18 09:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Website Is Officially Up And Running - WWW. KEVINMOBRIEN.COM [View instapost]
    Quicktdr,
    Discussion of day-trading options strategy is a good idea. There's been a lot of it, and a lot of information provided by reader Passion4DeepITM, over the past several months. It's hard to know how much of those threads have survived the cuts and deletions. In my own attempt to develop a strategy, I've preserved some of it in a file.

    But the question is whether the discussion should center on Kevin's particular approach. Are his indicators reliable triggers for action? In his book, he talks about very short holding periods and never holding overnight, although he does this himself, particularly with no stop loss point in place. In fact, he's said he doesn't like stops, so the method for risk control or keeping losses small is nebulous or non-existent. Kevin claims very few losses and long strings with no losses at all. If he's doing this without any formal risk control applied to his trading plan, then he possesses innate trading instincts that go beyond any structural description of his approach. How can someone learning the system hope to achieve similar results and avoid losses without any structured guidance?

    His lack of responsiveness, detail and examples means you can try his approach, but there is no guidance available when you drift into the thickets. As is, it is simply not a comprehensive trading plan.

    That leaves the question whether the indicators themselves are strong and reliable enough to build your own trading plan around. They probably do highlight situations where a stock is extremely overbought/oversold and likely to revert to a mean. But these signals are not useful in a breakout situation, and are in fact likely to lead you to exactly the wrong trade.

    I'm not sure how much time and energy I want invest in setting up and understanding Kevin's indicators when a straight-forward approach based on support and resistance levels and chart formations, utilizing Bollenger bands and generally available indicators, can give you a more comprehensive picture and a better variety of trades.

    Most who have tried Kevin's system report a period of success coupled with huge losses. Of course those losses could be avoided if you applied your own risk management. But then you are not trading the system, are you?

    It's especially difficult to learn and trade a questionable system when the purveyor is absent or hostile.

    I'm all for a discussion of day-trading options. It occurs on SA, but not in any organized way.

    My early options trading was fraught with loss because I just didn't understand time decay. Short trades of deep in the money weeklies give you the best return for foreseeable moves of the underlying. The short holding periods, which means most of the time you are NOT holding, is the best way of all to limit risk.

    What is your own experience with Kevin's system, and why might you think that line charts and a collection of overbought/oversold indicators is the way to go? Do you trade it yourself? How do you control risk?

    Another thing. Kevin chides Klaiman for his 5% returns. I would love consistent 5% returns on trades. This is another area where Kevin is being disingenuous. In his book, Kevin emphasizes short holding periods, often taking profits on a move of 60 cents to a dollar. These are not home run trades, so I wonder why he is disparaging another trader who goes for modest consistent gains.
    Apr 18 08:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Website Is Officially Up And Running - WWW. KEVINMOBRIEN.COM [View instapost]
    Quick, none of us are antagonizes. This all started out with a genuine interest and questions such as yours.
    Apr 16 10:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Story Worth Mentioning  [View instapost]
    Kevin - I don't know if you are trying to expose Kim or change anybody's mind about him, but it didn't work. The idea of a lawsuit is pretty silly. You are claiming interference with commerce? But it's certainly not illegal to criticize and ask questions, especially on an open forum where you're right here to respond.

    Kevin, you have these explosions of activity, then just stop responding. You go back and forth between unbridled vitriole and showing signs of being a little bit nice.

    But the main thing is - you put big claims out there, and then you just don't answer questions. Nobody really expects you to any more because the pattern is clear.

    Do you really make 6K on 25K in a week? Why are you so unwilling to prove and illustrate that? You really seem to want a live subject to spend the week with you. I will volunteer for that under the following conditions:
    1. You pay my way and accommodations in San Diego.
    2. You put $25,000 of your own money at risk in my account.
    3. At the end of the week, if we make money, I will return your 25K. If we lose money, I will return what is left to you.
    4. I will honestly and diligently report the results to this forum.

    Here is an opportunity for you to do it your way.
    -Gary
    Apr 16 12:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Story Worth Mentioning  [View instapost]
    The big expose is a non-event.
    Apr 14 05:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Story Worth Mentioning  [View instapost]
    Successfully trading is difficult.
    I've never seen an author/trader who spends as much effort as Kevin fending off critics and putting people down. Why bother? If you don't like Klaiman, just agree to disagree. I see disputes on SA resolved that way all the time.

    The critics are persistent because of the lack of reasoned and transparent responses. The question in Kim's first e-mail here is a good one, yet you utterly fail to address it. The famous GOOG trade. Anybody who followed your advice lost 100%. You said at the time you could afford to take such a loss. Yet now you say you only lost 20%. How hard would it be to show your entry and exit and explain why you deviated from the advice given in the article. And why the story changes? If it's because you took a 100% loss and "rolled" it, that's really just two trades. I've heard from students who recited this scenario of an unproductive session, then you'd leave and come back having made some hugely successful trade. Never any specifics, though.

    I want to believe in the Holy Grail. If the method you've devised is reliable and executable, it would be nice to have some rational guidance to it. But the lack of detailed responses plus the lashing out and prolonged feuding makes me feel you're an unreliable resource.

    I think you are right, that Kim learned as he went. But he is an astute student who doesn't settle for half-baked answers. It doesn't surprise me that his persistence rubbed you the wrong way. I'm also surprised that he continues to feud with you. Perhaps there is a need to protect honor and correct misinformation, but at some point it might be best to just let you go and stew in your own juices. It's funny that you recently wrote a post that you've been too nice too long, because you just haven't been very nice at all. Calling people idiots and geniuses (sarcastically) - how is that nice?

    Kim's is a legitimate and transparent service. You might be surprised to hear that it's not my cup of tea. My psyche requires a little more action and some bigger hits. But it's a staid approach, and "Steady Options" is a good name for it. The quality of the contributors, such as Mark Wolfinger, says something about the legitimacy of the service. I'm sure Mr. Wolfinger wouldn't lend his name to some fly-by-night approach.

    Maybe we could learn something from you, Kevin, if you would settle down and focus on providing reasoned responses to people. There are many reasonable questions that you just fail to answer, perhaps because you perceive them as harassment. The question about line charts versus candlesticks is a good one. I am open - minded, and I still can't understand why you prefer line charts for short duration trades.

    Kim brings up an interesting point about your disclaimer. Disclaimers are just that - legal gobbledygook. But it raises the question. Do you intend to share and discuss real-time trades on your service, or is it all theoretical? Why have you been unwilling to do that here? Since you do day trading, will there be a live real -time trading room or chat during market hours?

    I choose to believe that you're a nice guy who just got bent out of shape by the stress brought on by the feuding on here. I hope you are being honest in portraying yourself as a successful trader. I would ask that we just call a truce, and rationally and reasonably answer questions as they come. If you have something to offer, then offer it.

    You are really not misquoted. The things you're persistently asked about are things that you've said. If you were misunderstood or you mis-spoke, say so.
    - Can and do you consistently make 24% a week day trading? You guaranteed two subscribers on here a $6,000 return on a $25,000 investment. Are you doing that yourself, week after week? If you are, why the reluctance at posting a week or twos sample trades? Even your supporters are starting to say it's because it simply can't be done. Why not just do it and show us?
    - Why not more detail about controversial trades like the GOOG trade? How does it help your readers if you offer them a falling scenario without dissecting what went wrong or right with the trade? Why is it such a mystery about how exactly you handled that, and lost either 100% or 20% or whatever it was?
    - if you trade successfully and occasional 100% losses are a part of your plan, why not a straight-forward explanation of your risk/reward strategy. I would take a100% loss if it's likely to be balanced by two 100% gains, but you haven't said that's what you're doing.

    Anyway, it would be nice if you just dialed the feud back and if you want to be a mentor, then be one. If I were you and I were making 24% a week, I wouldn't even bother, so I'm not sure why you are. It could be you just have a generous spirit. If so, like all of us, I hope you progress to a kinder and better form of execution.
    Gary
    Apr 13 01:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trading Google's Earnings Release [View article]
    Optionistics.
    Apr 11 07:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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