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  • SPXU And UPRO: Patience And Reasonable Expectations Are Key To Trading Leveraged ETFs  [View article]
    You are glossing over the important information that this poster just provided to you. Your opinion doesn't matter, and it's wrong. The point is, UPRO is designed to triple SPY returns ON A DAILY BASIS. It is reset every day. If you are holding for months, then you may encounter periods where your return differs drastically from expectations. A gain in SPY can even be a loss for UPRO. This is an important detail, and you shouldn't so cavalierly dismiss it. The UPRO NAV is less of a factor than with other ETFs.
    Mar 27, 2014. 09:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Google Be Generous To Us Once Again?  [View article]
    Apparently so.
    Aug 19, 2013. 08:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lessons From Apple Crash  [View instapost]
    The voice of reason.
    Apr 24, 2013. 12:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Definitive 17 Cardinal Rules For Investing Success  [View article]
    You've NEVER lost money in a position? That's incredulous.
    Apr 21, 2013. 02:11 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Website Is Officially Up And Running - WWW. KEVINMOBRIEN.COM  [View instapost]
    Kevin has his own website where one presumes there would be a lot of discussion about implementing his model.

    As to discussions on day-trading options, SA forums might be a good place, but I can't think of a reason why Kevin's indicators would be an appropriate starting point. Can you?
    Apr 18, 2013. 11:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Website Is Officially Up And Running - WWW. KEVINMOBRIEN.COM  [View instapost]
    Another very basic question, quikdtor, why in the world would you trade monthlies in a day trading system with trade durations of 5 minutes to a couple hours? Monthlies cost more, especially to get DITM, and the % return is reduced because of this cost. Kevin claims that the monthlies give you a greater safety margin. How can this even be an issue if the trade is of such duration that time decay does not apply?

    He has actually tried to answer this question on the forum. He developed the system with monthlies, and they give him a margin of error. Does that really answer the question, or does it evade it?

    I think the truth is that he needs that margin of error because he is not truly committed to intraday trades. Monthlies might work better for him because he does in fact hold overnight. So if you want to trade like Kevin, buy monthlies, be prepared to hold overnight if your trade doesn't pan out, and have faith like he does that these things always reverse in his direction if the indicators were right to begin with. I can't say he is wrong in this assertion because he gives us no examples to observe. But these are not the simple day trades he describes in his book.

    He's been asked about the monthlies. He answered - I guess as best he could - but not to my satisfaction. So this is a point where normal people would agree to disagree.
    Apr 18, 2013. 09:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Website Is Officially Up And Running - WWW. KEVINMOBRIEN.COM  [View instapost]
    Quicktdr,
    Discussion of day-trading options strategy is a good idea. There's been a lot of it, and a lot of information provided by reader Passion4DeepITM, over the past several months. It's hard to know how much of those threads have survived the cuts and deletions. In my own attempt to develop a strategy, I've preserved some of it in a file.

    But the question is whether the discussion should center on Kevin's particular approach. Are his indicators reliable triggers for action? In his book, he talks about very short holding periods and never holding overnight, although he does this himself, particularly with no stop loss point in place. In fact, he's said he doesn't like stops, so the method for risk control or keeping losses small is nebulous or non-existent. Kevin claims very few losses and long strings with no losses at all. If he's doing this without any formal risk control applied to his trading plan, then he possesses innate trading instincts that go beyond any structural description of his approach. How can someone learning the system hope to achieve similar results and avoid losses without any structured guidance?

    His lack of responsiveness, detail and examples means you can try his approach, but there is no guidance available when you drift into the thickets. As is, it is simply not a comprehensive trading plan.

    That leaves the question whether the indicators themselves are strong and reliable enough to build your own trading plan around. They probably do highlight situations where a stock is extremely overbought/oversold and likely to revert to a mean. But these signals are not useful in a breakout situation, and are in fact likely to lead you to exactly the wrong trade.

    I'm not sure how much time and energy I want invest in setting up and understanding Kevin's indicators when a straight-forward approach based on support and resistance levels and chart formations, utilizing Bollenger bands and generally available indicators, can give you a more comprehensive picture and a better variety of trades.

    Most who have tried Kevin's system report a period of success coupled with huge losses. Of course those losses could be avoided if you applied your own risk management. But then you are not trading the system, are you?

    It's especially difficult to learn and trade a questionable system when the purveyor is absent or hostile.

    I'm all for a discussion of day-trading options. It occurs on SA, but not in any organized way.

    My early options trading was fraught with loss because I just didn't understand time decay. Short trades of deep in the money weeklies give you the best return for foreseeable moves of the underlying. The short holding periods, which means most of the time you are NOT holding, is the best way of all to limit risk.

    What is your own experience with Kevin's system, and why might you think that line charts and a collection of overbought/oversold indicators is the way to go? Do you trade it yourself? How do you control risk?

    Another thing. Kevin chides Klaiman for his 5% returns. I would love consistent 5% returns on trades. This is another area where Kevin is being disingenuous. In his book, Kevin emphasizes short holding periods, often taking profits on a move of 60 cents to a dollar. These are not home run trades, so I wonder why he is disparaging another trader who goes for modest consistent gains.
    Apr 18, 2013. 08:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Website Is Officially Up And Running - WWW. KEVINMOBRIEN.COM  [View instapost]
    Quick, none of us are antagonizes. This all started out with a genuine interest and questions such as yours.
    Apr 16, 2013. 10:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trading Google's Earnings Release  [View article]
    Optionistics.
    Apr 11, 2013. 07:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Stocks Worth Buying Puts On In An Overbought Market  [View instapost]
    There might be a good reason to go with the line charts. And if there is, Kevin, why don't you simply explain it? I suspect you've run different models and found that end-of-interval pricing gives you the best results, and the line charts achieve that without distraction. If that's the answer, it's a pretty simple answer, and critics can take it or leave it and just agree to disagree.

    It must be frustrating for you that every time you show up here you come under attack.

    As one who has followed every post and every thread from start to finish, I must say that you have only yourself to blame. It's only natural that people have questions. A new reader might not be able to reconstruct the threads because of all the deletions. But the pattern with Kim and Dynamite were the same. They started with skepticism and questions and you replied with insults and evasiveness.

    I've known Kim since long before these exchanges started (I introduced him to your articles on SA), and your insinuations that there is something sinister about him are ludicrous. Kim is an arduous options student and researcher and is very honest and transparent in his trading and his web service.

    Dynamite has become a detractor of yours, but he didn't start out that way. If you don't recognize why you tend to make enemies on here, then I can't help you.

    I'm not even sure why you are dinking around on here, stirring up and receiving all of this animosity if your trading results are anywhere close to what you represent. You say that Kim misquotes you, but I can attest that you've said everything he claims. Perhaps you feel it's taken out of context? If so, just say so. Are you saying that you can make 6K on 15K capital THIS week, but perhaps not every week?

    If I were you, I'd do just that - make those kinds of profits - week after week, and forget all the animosity you run into on this site.

    I think Kim and Dynamite feel like they are doing a public service in exposing some of your claims. I think they are right - a beginner could come along and read claims like this and go hog wild on your system. It's not asking much at all to answer simple questions and provide a week or two of real-time trading examples. You could still a lot of critics if you just did that. But you get this bristly response that it's nobody's business what you trade. That's true to a point, but when you're an author and the perpetrator or an expensive trading system, the normal course is to answer questions and provide examples. Why is that so hard?
    Apr 7, 2013. 09:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Low-Risk Citigroup Earnings Trade  [View article]
    Trading plans vary, and a 100% loss can be acceptable if you have more winners than losers and consistently have winners of over 100%. I have a friend who trades small call or put positions, holding overnight on ETF options. He's pretty good at getting the direction right, and if the move is big enough, gains of 200% or 300% for DITM options are not uncommon. He goes into it realizing that a100% loss is possible, and sometimes it happens. Not everyone's cup of tea. And it's not what Kevin's GOOG trade was. That was an earnings trade. Kevin's set-up certainly didn't seem to take a 100% loss into consideration, and there wasn't much of a mea culpa afterwards.
    Dbas, you are familiar with "Trading In the Zone?" Those concepts might help you. The emphasis is on the discipline and planning part of trading rather than becoming a technical master. You do need to master some concepts. Those are simple. But it's still not easy because of the emotional turmoil we create. Trade in control. An under control trader with mediocre technical skills is more likely to be successful than an undisciplined technical genius.

    As for Kevin, it's just become a soap opera. All these challenges and claims, then you ask for specific examples and you get these "none of your business" responses. At least on these forums. He gets rankled, then surly and hostile. It's a strange response for somebody selling something, where you'd think the PR aspect would be important.

    But he's responded to my e-mails, Mike, and he'll probably respond to yours. So if you really want your questions answered, write him or call him.
    Mar 28, 2013. 10:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Low-Risk Citigroup Earnings Trade  [View article]
    I remember when Kim and I were communicating about the Augen books and developing these IV trades, and I stumbled across Kevin's earnings articles and shared them with Kim. He was very excited about it. Kevin wrote with such confidence that it seemed he had some kind of deeper understanding we could tap into. Those first couple rounds of trading Kevin's suggestions did not work well. Kim's conclusion was he has to stick with his discipline and not do trades that don't make sense. Kevin made money on the trades, so his message was that we just traded poorly. This may be the case. I don't really doubt that Kevin trades successfully, but I suspect he puts things out there and doesn't realize they are not as simple as he claims. There is another level of experience and finesse that he applies, and he doesn't really have a good feel for what the risk is to other traders, particularly novices. The GOOG trade is classic, and he said that he could take the risk of a 100% loss as part of his overall trading plan. But that's sure not what he said about the trade when he was assuring others it would work like a charm. But nobody should really be trading on the basis of somebody else's word, especially if it doesn't add up.

    But it does impact negatively on credibility when you put out claims and hyperbole like this, then get all prickly when confronted about it. That is the basis for much of the criticism.

    This whole dialogue has of course become quite dysfunctional, but I know that Kim and Passion/Soprano/Napolean started out with a genuine interest and asked legitimate questions. These are not hard questions. Claims have been made. Simply back them up. Saying "what I trade is my business" and I will share no examples is snarky for a guy who is putting advice out there and offering to help others. Then the rancor and insulting tone is just off the charts. Several of us have contact with some of Kevin's past students, and the word is not good. Then people pop up and have had a good run of trades, like Mike, but then a prospective run that would have wiped them out. Kevin has no answer for them. He trades without stops and that is his prerogative, but if you're going to be advising others to do so, it behooves you to give well-grounded reasons other than just to say it's based on experience than calling questioners clowns, sick, etc . . .

    If this is a legitimate approach, where are the successful students posting long-term records without the cheerleading "you show 'em, Kevin" attiitude? Where is the serious discussion and response to legitimate criticism? It's just not there. All these threads are entertaining like a soap opera or a sitcom. If Kevin has something to offer, there are opportunities even now to address questions and criticism in a serious and polite way. The evasiveness is extreme.
    Mar 25, 2013. 09:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dead Company Walking: 5 Reasons BlackBerry 10 Marks The End  [View article]
    Vol, it really sounds like you are HOPING you hitched your horse to the right wagon. Not a lucid way to make investment decisions. You miss Steady's point.
    Feb 5, 2013. 06:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My Investment Strategy For 2013  [View instapost]
    It's a shame that they are discontinuing options articles. It's the most important part for me.
    Jan 6, 2013. 11:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Issues Of Weekly Options, Risk, And Comments On My Daily Options Strategy  [View instapost]
    Thorn,
    Where do you find the data on options traded? Are there ever any contracts traded on other exchanges or from broker's stock that would account for the discrepancy. He said these were actual trades so there must be some explanation.

    It seems you can make some money from these trades. My question would be whether following the system precisely would lead to catastrophic losses due to lack of stops. These traders are wisely tweaking at least that part of it.
    Nov 20, 2012. 10:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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