tinman

No Conspiracy Behind Tumbling Commodities

Ascribe ye not unto malice that which can be explained by stupidity.

Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

Why not attach power to a balanced budget? If you don't do your job, all leadership positions are forfeited to the ranking member of the opposition.

How Should Policymakers Respond to the Employment Report?

Borrow & Spend is obviously the Policy of Success. Let's bite the bullet, cut taxes to zero, and borrow the whole enchilada! What could possibly be better than that?

David Coffin on Metals: 'Pick Away' at Bargains

FYI, some of us know to shun advice from anyone touting under the pink sheets.

Mexico: Running Out of Oil and Options

I'm sure TB Pickens would be ecstatic to put nat gas on the market at a break even of $2.50/gal equivalent. I'm amazed that the market thinks oil is a bargain at $100. Very short memories, I suppose.

Securitized Mortgage Trends [Housing Tracker]

It won't be back to the same old liar's loan game, that's for sure. I expect tighter standards and bigger risk spreads will drive buyers out and prices down to around rent parity.

Economic Outlook: Bracing for a Rocky Road?

43's priorities clearly did not include smoothing the regulatory path for Big Oil's potential competitors. Did anyone expect anything different? The country got exactly what it deserved. It's the price the rest of the planet has paid that is truly pitiful.

Strong Fundamentals and Oil Ties Make Transocean a Great Long-Term Buy

Astra non mentiuntur, sed astrologi bene mentiuntur da astris.

Fed Should Cut Rates - Cramer's Mad Money (9/5/08)

Gee, another half a trillion of debt on top the $8 trillion courtesy of our beloved borrow&spend neocons. No big deal. Hey, since borrow&spend is such a good policy, why don't we bite the bullet, cut taxes to zero, and just borrow the whole enchilada?

Financial vs. International ETFs: Which Bear is Grizzlier?

The biggest chickens come home to roost the slowest. I'd avoid a strike date before 2013.

The Great Dollar Pump of 2008: A Doomed Central Bank Intervention

Why has no one pointed out the egregious typo in here? "As you can see, it would be easy to take a trillion or so dollars temporarily out of circulation by using locking up just a small portion of these derivatives with the 6 trillion euros sold by the U.S. ESF."

I think I know, alas.

The Great Dollar Pump of 2008: A Doomed Central Bank Intervention

Why has no one pointed out the egregious typo in here? "As you can see, it would be easy to take a trillion or so dollars temporarily out of circulation by using locking up just a small portion of these derivatives with the 6 trillion euros sold by the U.S. ESF."

I think I know, alas.

Why Credit Marches to Its Own Drummer

The joker in the deck is right here: "The inflation premium is the expected interest rate differential added to compensate for the future rate-of-change in inflation. "

Fortunately, future inflation rates are easy to predict.
Unfortunately, future inflation rates more than a couple of years out are virtually impossible to predict with reliable accuracy.
This makes the risk/reward ratio of long term bonds particularly unpalatable. Absent any inflation protection provision, investing in other than short term is a fool's game (except for bond ladders where principal risk is unaffected by inflation).

Stocks vs. Bonds: The Next Decade

Things look pretty bad for your run of the mill mutual fund. Sure there are bargains to be found in equities and bonds but the risk-reward ratios are poor for both classes. Real estate? Maybe after another 25%. Maybe. Gold? Commodities? Swiss Francs? For diversification maybe, not preservation. I'm putting my chips on Brazil.

Opportunities in the Real Crisis: Water

Socialism failed because it could not recognize the economic truth.

Capitalism is failing because it can not recognize the ecologic truth.