Vance Harwood is a private investor and consultant whose interests include macroeconomic forecasting, investor psychology, and volatility as an asset class. His investment activities include trading index ETFs, volatility related ETPs and their associated options. He blogs at sixfigureinvesting.com—mostly about volatility, but occasionally about options strategies, bond funds, and general market topics. He tracks the USA based volatility ETPs and has simulated the performance of most of them back to the initiation of VIX Futures in 2004.
A couple things Vance believes:
The past does not predict the future (see Nassim Taleb’s “Fooled by Randomness”). This invalidates much technical analysis–although I think the psychology of stock movements is very important
Past behavior of assets relative to each other (e.g., bonds vs stocks) does not guarantee future behavior
Markets fall a lot faster than they go up, typically at least 2X
“Buy and hold” ensures that you will experience the worst days as well as the best days of the market
Investing in individual stocks carries many more unknowns than aggregates like index ETFs (e.g., earnings surprises, analyst’s ratings)
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I have more than 7 years experience investing in commodities and hard assets such as gold and silver miners, exploration companies, oil and gas producers, MLPs, and various other sectors.
Andy Hecht is the chief market strategist for Carden Capital and Carden Futures. Andy is a sought-after commodity and futures trader, an options expert and analyst. He spent nearly 35 years on Wall Street, including two decades on the trading desk of Phillip Brothers, which became Salomon Brothers and ultimately part of Citigroup.
Over the past two decades, he has researched, structured and executed some of the largest trades ever made, involving huge quantities of precious metals and bulk commodities.
Andy understands the market in a way many traders can’t imagine. He’s booked vessels, armored cars and trains to transport and store a wide range of commodities. And he’s worked directly with The United Nations and the legendary trading group Phibro.
Today, Andy remains in close contact with sources around the world and his network of traders.
“I have a vast Rolodex of information in my head… so many bull and bear markets. When something happens, I don’t have to think. I just react. History does tend to repeat itself over and over.”
His friends and mentors include highly regarded energy and precious metals traders, supply line specialists and international shipping companies that give him vast insight into the market.
Andy’s writing and analysis can be found on a number of market based websites including CQG. Andy lectures at colleges and Universities. He also contributes to Traders Magazine. He consults for companies involved in producing and consuming commodities. Andy's biweekly radio show, The Commodities Hour with Andy Hecht, can be heard on Tuesdays and Thursdays from 5-6 PM EST on www.tfnn.com. Andy’s first book How to Make Money with Commodities, published by McGraw Hill was released in 2013 and has received excellent reviews. He is currently working on his second book, Luster. Andy held a Series 3 and Series 30 license from the National Futures Association and is associated as a collaborator and strategist with hedge funds. Andy is the commodity-expert for the website about.com and blogs on his own site technomentals.com.
Donald is a young millennial investor with over 15 years of investing experience. Donald (commonly known as DJ) specializes in dividend growth stocks and options trading. His options strategy is used to boost returns in sideways markets and provide protection and profits in economic downturns. DJ provides straight forward technical and fundamental analysis that is easy for both pros and beginners to understand. Follow him for weekly market updates, trading ideas and dividend stock analysis. Home of "The Covered Call DGI Portfolio" founded June 2016 for followers.
Hedge Fund Insights is a premium service tailored to long-term oriented value investors. We provide subscribers with detailed idea analysis, real-time trade updates, and portfolio composition.
"It's like having your own hedge fund analyst."
Our TipRank profile: https://www.tipranks.com/bloggers/hfi
William J. Trainor Jr., Ph.D., CFA is a Professor of Finance in the Department of Economics and Finance at East Tennessee State University.
Dr. Trainor received his Ph.D. in Finance from Virginia Tech in 1994 and has been with ETSU since 2006. He has been a Chartered Financial Analyst Charterholder since 2002. Trainor has published extensively in journals such as Financial Review, Journal of Index Investing, Journal of Personal Finance, Journal of Financial Planning, Journal of Investing, Atlantic Economic Journal, and Financial Services Review among others. In 2007, he received both ETSU’s School of Business and Technology’s Faculty Excellence Award for Outstanding New Faculty and the Faculty Excellence Award for Scholarship which he received again in 2011. In 2007 he was an Academy of Finance Teaching Excellence Award Finalist. More recently, Trainor was awarded a 2014 Fulbright Research Grant in New Zealand where he is researching the Kiwi Savings Program along with sustainability issues.
Currently, Dr. Trainor teaches Investments, Applied Equity Valuation in which students help manage part of TVA’s investment portfolio, and Applied Corporate Finance in the MBA and AMBA programs.
Bill is an avid runner, mountain biker, and climber. When not in the classroom or working on research, he is likely somewhere out in the woods or on a rock.
Daryl Montgomery is the organizer of the New York Investing meetup, a 7,000 member educational group that provides the public with unbiased stock, bond, currency and commodity market information. For details, see: http://ow.ly/Y6CNhT (it's free to join). The group is the largest investing meetup in the world. It holds monthly general meetings, offers small classes on investing topics, has webinars and provides individual tutoring.
Montgomery, a former professor and expert witness in court cases on data reliability (up to the Supreme Court), has written a number of books on investing and approximately 700 articles on financial topics. He was formerly the chief blogger for the "Helicopter Economics Investing Guide". He has done extensive research on optimal use of technical indicators. Montgomery has never worked for, nor has any association with any Wall Street company and this allows him to bring an independent perspective to market analysis.
The New York Investing meetup's strength is in calling market turns. It called the top in gold and silver in March 2008 and the exact day of the oil bottom in February 2009 and almost the exact peak price in Silver in 2011. The group went to an all-cash position starting in September 2015. The New York Investing meetup uses its own approach to technical analysis and currently has access to a proprietary model that predicts tops and bottoms in stocks and commodities.
I am a lecturer at the University of Economics in Bratislava, department of Banking and International Finance. I have a Ph.D. academic degree, my dissertation was focused on commodity markets. Commodities and stock markets are also the main focus of my research and publication activitities.
I have approximately 10 years of investing experiences. My investments mostly focus on small- to mid-cap companies of resource sector, utilities and biotechnologies. I prefer long positions. I never short.
Ever feel like trading is like rolling dice? In a way, it is, because every mathematical model of the market includes a stochastic aspect. But I believe we can load the dice in our favor through the use of statistics. Understanding both the stock market and each individual stock as a sort of random process with its own characteristics allows us to more accurately predict what it will do in the future. Coupling statistics with fundamental analysis, I have the goal of revealing to you the hidden patterns within stocks so that you may do what you wish with that information.
I suspect that most dividend investors are conservative by nature. I am. I don't believe I have any special talent or gift for trading, a crystal ball, or any access to insider information. Consequently, I have little expectation of prospering by consistently buying low and selling high. In fact, prior to becoming a dividend investor, my trading history boasted the opposite, buying high and selling low. Tis sad but true, over those years, I'd given more to the market than I'd taken from it. However, that's yesterday's news, and of no real interest. Of importance is that I'm patient, analytical, organized, pretty good at math, and always looking for that angle, strategy, or edge to help guarantee my continued market success. My book, The Dividend Investor's Guide, details my history, education and growth as a dividend investor and the lessons I learned along the way. It details an effective and safe overall investing philosophy, along with a discussion of several proven trading strategies designed to enhance one's portfolio's income and dividend yield.
Williams Equity Research analyzes trading strategy, individual stocks, asset classes, market sectors, and risk to reward parameters in order to provide valuable insight to the Seeking Alpha community.
The author has over 10 years of experience in the financial markets working in areas of equities trading, complex product analysis, and risk management, as well as a graduate level education in the areas of petroleum engineering (full), law (partial), and finance (MBA, partial).
I'm a Buffett Graham disciple with an MBA in finance analyzing the best value stocks for your portfolio. Some people don't like to look at the "cigarette butts" or the stocks that have been oversold and beaten up by Mr. Market, but I like to dig deep. Visit me for frequent posts!
High yield petroleum,metals and mining analyst with significant experience as a sell-side analyst with long/short and stressed/distressed debt investments. Have worked at firms ranging from Citicorp to Guggenheim Securities during a career spanning over 20 years.
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My goal is to hit $37,450 in dividends and retire at age 35. Financial independence is complete freedom.
(While not at my goaI I am close enough. I just quit my job and retired this year at age 35 with this portfolio. Currently it generates about $30K a year in income from dividends and should grow dividends in the 8-10% range yearly. I am moving to the Philippines. Good luck to everyone on SA.)
I use multiple strategies to invest:
Strategy 1: Wonderful Businesses (with Huge Cash Flows)
Strategy 2: Capital Intensive - Quality - Cyclical - Below Book Value
Strategy 3: Purely Compounders (http://www.dailywealth.com/194/how-to-join-a-compound-interest-club)
Portfolio: Strategy 1
A man with no options suddenly has all the options in the world:
SHORT 3 VIAB FEB 19 2016 PUTS @ $32.5
Short 6 VIAB JAN 22 2016 PUTS $38.5 (EXPIRED WORTHLESS)
Short 30 JNJ JAN 2016 PUTS @ $75 (EXPIRED WORTHLESS)
Short 10 UVV AUG 21 2015 PUTS @ $40 (EXPIRED WORTHLESS)
Short 10 PM AUG 21 2015 PUTS @ $75 (EXPIRED WORTHLESS)
Short 1 HSY AUG 21 2015 CALL @ $95 (EXPIRED WORTHLESS)
Short 40 PM DEC 18 2015 PUTS @ $72.5 (EXPIRED WORTHLESS)
Short 10 PM SEP 18 2015 PUTS @ $75 (EXPIRED WORTHLESS)
Short 1 HSY SEP 18 2015 CALL @ $90 (EXERCISED)
Short 9 WDR MAY 20 2016 PUTS @ 20
Short 5 VIAB SEP 16 2016 PUTS @ 32.5
Portfolio Performance (Time Weighted Rate of Return)
18.14% Annualized Return
VS S&P 500
15.82% Annualized Return
“It’s obvious that if a company generates high returns on capital and reinvests at high returns, it will do well. But this wouldn’t sell books, so there’s a lot of twaddle and fuzzy concepts that have been introduced that don’t add much.” -Charlie Munger
People are always asking me where is the outlook good, but that’s the wrong question…. The right question is: Where is the outlook the most miserable?” -John Templeton
Favorite investing books/letters: Outsiders, 100 Baggers, Any Book Written by Joel Greenblatt, Stocks for the Long Run, The Intelligent Investor, Berkshire Hathaway shareholder letters.
Steve started his career as an design engineer focused on evaluating evolving technology while obtaining his MBA in Internationally Finance from Wilfred Laurier University in Waterloo. Forced into early retirement due to a handicap, he is now a value investor focused on technology firms. He lives on a farm in beautiful rural Canada with his wife and two children.
Born to working class parents I learned early and was reminded often about the value of a dollar. Dad could (and often did) fix or build anything and mom combined coupon clipping and hamburger helper to stretch the budget farther than anyone thought possible.
I began investing what money I earned from painting houses and stocking shelves to pay my college tuition. I made mistakes along the way (and will again) but did ok and actually ended up with a small surplus after graduation.
This pretty much sums it up for me in that "If it doesn't make money, it doesn't make cents."