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  • Otelco: One Of My Top Ideas That Is Overlooked And Misunderstood By The Majority Of The Market  [View article]
    Guessing the management haven't really gone out of their way shopping the company around.

    Hard to believe they equity would not fetch over a triple the current market cap with the buyer still only paying ~10x for the fully-taxed free cash flow of the entire enterprise.
    Feb 4, 2016. 12:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Otelco: One Of My Top Ideas That Is Overlooked And Misunderstood By The Majority Of The Market  [View article]
    Walk - why do you believe the new credit line will be fundedin late Feb & not later in late March?
    Feb 2, 2016. 09:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Update On Otelco  [View article]
    Despite the expectations that the stock was held down but uncertainly about re-financing, it crashed once re-financing has indeed occurred.

    Counterintuitive?
    Feb 1, 2016. 10:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Otelco: One Of My Top Ideas That Is Overlooked And Misunderstood By The Majority Of The Market  [View article]
    Interesting that the new senior lender (Cerberous) is getting ~9% on investment with no substantial equity to back it up. (I.e. this is *effectively* an unsecured loan because there is so little equity to back it up.)

    Someone with excess ~$110m cash could take the entire thing private and get and immediate 17% return based on the cash flow - i.e. a far superior deal that is just as secure in practice (by cash flows) as the current senior loan.

    Are folks thinking clearly, or am I missing something?
    Feb 1, 2016. 01:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Otelco: One Of My Top Ideas That Is Overlooked And Misunderstood By The Majority Of The Market  [View article]
    In the best-case scenario they can pay down ~$50m during the loan terms, leaving them with the need to re-finance ~$45m again in 5 years.

    That's would still be a huge burden to refinance, and who know what the lending/rates environment is by then.

    On the other hand, if they manage to get that far that and keep most of their operating cash flow, they will have made a huge progress.
    Feb 1, 2016. 01:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Otelco: One Of My Top Ideas That Is Overlooked And Misunderstood By The Majority Of The Market  [View article]
    A very nice overview. Thank you.

    - Where does it say the loan rate is capped?

    - What makes you think they won't tap the subordinated loan fully? The filing says (about the subordinated loan) - "The term loans will be fully drawn on the Funding Date"
    Feb 1, 2016. 01:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Genworth Financial: How Mispriced Risks Are Building Upside Into This Troubled Company  [View article]
    How are they going to be able to refi the $4.4b in long-term debt starting to mature in 2018?
    Jan 27, 2016. 05:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • An Update On Otelco  [View article]
    Don't u think if there was a willing acquirer they would have had an offer by now?
    Jan 26, 2016. 12:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Update On Otelco  [View article]
    So the bulk of the loan is ~9%. Not bad.

    But I suppose there is a risk of it rising in the next 5 years.
    Jan 25, 2016. 05:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Update On Otelco  [View article]
    12% Interest on a new loan?
    Jan 25, 2016. 04:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Update On Otelco  [View article]
    Prepare for the banks to dump 200k shares!
    Jan 24, 2016. 02:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Finding A Fair Value For Gilead  [View article]
    You got to factor in a HCV competitor's entry in a few years and its possible impact on driving down the sales prices.
    Jan 14, 2016. 12:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Gilead Is Still A Growth Stock - Focus On HIV And China, With Projections For 2016  [View article]
    DrX - can you elaborate on why you are not expecting that?
    Dec 7, 2015. 10:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Gilead Is Still A Growth Stock - Focus On HIV And China, With Projections For 2016  [View article]
    Overseas opportunities are fine, but wouldn't the Merk HCV treatment, if works as demoed in so-far trials" take a huge chunk out of GILDs profits?
    Dec 7, 2015. 11:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Taro Shareholders Stand To Benefit From Ownership Struggle  [View article]
    Moy - in 2003 Taro was under different management who subsequently almost put it out of business.

    I am counting 10x since the time Sun took operational control and crediting them with the subsequent operational improvements.

    One can always claim they could have done better. But the've done pretty darn well for the shareholders, to put it mildly.

    I rest my case.
    Dec 7, 2015. 02:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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