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rubicon59

rubicon59
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  • Priceline: Strong Balance Sheet, Strong Revenue Growth, Fair Valuation [View article]
    Aren't they guiding to single-digit Q1 revenue growth and a EBITDA decline which they also expect to further slow for the rest of the year "due to the size of our business"?

    And that's assuming 1.14 EUR/USD rates, which in reality much worse now.

    A year ago they guided Q1 to 18%% mid-point guidance growth on revenue and EBITDA.

    So the growth, it appears, is grinding to a halt.

    And the trailing PE is still around 25x.

    Am I missing something?
    Apr 1, 2015. 02:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why This Reinsurer Is Poised For Continued Outperformance [View article]
    Thank you for a very nice article.

    How would you compare Partner Re with Everest Re?
    Apr 1, 2015. 01:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A No-Nonsense Projection Of Gilead In 2015 [View article]
    >>I think the pricing was strategic and GILD must have known that ESRX would be negotiating with ABBV.

    If your read the earnings calls and conference transcripts carefully, they admit that the "price war" came as a surprise.
    Mar 31, 2015. 11:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A No-Nonsense Projection Of Gilead In 2015 [View article]
    Objectively speaking, Gild was surprised by Abbvie's aggressive pricing and had to respond in haste.

    (All this talk about how they strategically priced and then lowered the price, playing "chess", doesn't wash.)

    Even at 46% discount the price of treatment is still super high, so many are nervous about another pricing shock.
    Mar 31, 2015. 06:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences Faces An Uncertain Future After Patent Loss In India [View article]
    Sadly, this article was apparently written by a value investor who can not afford his medications. :-(
    Mar 31, 2015. 01:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Butler National Is Growing & Generates Half Of Its Market Cap In Free Cash Flow [View article]
    Point well taken. Boy, that huge CapEx jump this quarter was like a bolt out of the blue. Looking also at past history, one has to treat it as the "normal" with this management team. :-(
    Mar 24, 2015. 12:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A No-Nonsense Projection Of Gilead In 2015 [View article]
    It seems at this rate of prescriptions it will take 10-12 years to cure every HCV patient in the US, and even will likely requires continued price drops year after year to reach the target population.

    After that, the sales will drop precipitously to match the rate of new infections (about 17k/yr).

    One has to be careful with a proper multiple on this kind of business.
    Mar 23, 2015. 06:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Butler National Is Growing & Generates Half Of Its Market Cap In Free Cash Flow [View article]
    Given the unpredictable capEx, as demonstrated this quarter, I don't think they have the free cash flow you think they have :-(
    Mar 23, 2015. 06:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A No-Nonsense Projection Of Gilead In 2015 [View article]
    Thanks for the great article.

    With such an enormously-high price umbrella, do you factor in additional entrants into the market collapsing the pricing? BM has a HCV drug in pipeline, perhaps others? 2015 is probably fine, but 3 years out?
    Mar 23, 2015. 01:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Butler National Is Growing & Generates Half Of Its Market Cap In Free Cash Flow [View article]
    Judging from the lack of comments, few seem to be paying attention to this interesting security (so well written up here).
    Mar 16, 2015. 05:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Willdan Group Gives A Shout Out To Seeking Alpha - Consider This Misunderstood Stock Now [View article]
    Odd that no one bothered to ask to clarify this on the call.
    Mar 11, 2015. 01:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Willdan Group Gives A Shout Out To Seeking Alpha - Consider This Misunderstood Stock Now [View article]
    Something doesn't quite make sense about those 4.3x trailing earnings multiple they mentioned.

    Given that they paid 21m for 20m in revenue, it would imply those companies are earning $4.5m on 20m revenues, or 23% margins!?

    Not only is this outside the norm in the industry, but such they sold such incredibly profitable business at 4.3x earnings?
    Mar 7, 2015. 04:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Willdan Group Gives A Shout Out To Seeking Alpha - Consider This Misunderstood Stock Now [View article]
    Thanks for the informative article.

    How is it possible for them to acquire profitable and growing companies at <5x trailing earnings?

    It doesn't make sense that the target would sell so low.

    Thoughts?
    Mar 5, 2015. 10:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • National Research Corporation: Confirming A Major Valuation Discrepancy [View article]
    Also telling is the fact that the overall NRCI company valuation is same as just before the recap a year and a half ago, even as earnings have improve by about 20%.
    Mar 3, 2015. 05:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • National Research Corporation: Confirming A Major Valuation Discrepancy [View article]
    The, A, trading at a PE of 33 makes no sense unless the holders believe (which they apparently do through their "holding" actions) that the company will get acquired;

    Yet, there has been no history or evidence to support this belief.
    Mar 3, 2015. 04:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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