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rubicon59

rubicon59
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  • MagicJack, Never Short A Shark [View article]
    @tufenk Good. Thanks.

    How do you compare to Vonage? Also doing well, but note quite as well, it seems.

    btw. Do you need a MagicCap device to use the app, or standalone?
    Aug 6 06:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Otelco Is An Attractive Post-Reorg Investment [View article]
    @vforde Well, they didn't really have a choice about Bankruptcy. Best move for the stakeholders that were already in, banks included. So that's not a good indication by itself of the present value of the stock.
    Aug 6 04:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MagicJack, Never Short A Shark [View article]
    They seem to be running huge FCF margins and improving financials year after year. Plus new products. The P/FCF is ridiculous for such performance, even without counting the $40m net cash.

    But their mobile app has terrible reviews (contrast with the Vonage's app that has great reviews)

    @tufenic did you rally do DD at Radioshack?
    Aug 6 04:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Top 10 Pick: Buy MGM Resorts [View article]
    It seems in 2012 they repaid a net of $405m of debt, yet total debt on the balance sheet only gone down by $136m.

    What am I missing?
    Aug 6 03:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Otelco Is An Attractive Post-Reorg Investment [View article]
    @vforde It does appear quite cheap at the current prices.

    Hard to tell what the "fair market" value is without some idea as to what may happen with the business. Their margins, even at the reduced EBTDA projections are way higher then other piers, like Alaska. So room to fall further? What makes me uncomfortable, is I don't see any evidence that they are able to replace the declining phone business with broadband or VOID services, like some of their piers have done. So a mixed bag on this one right now for me.
    Aug 6 01:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Otelco Is An Attractive Post-Reorg Investment [View article]
    What is the business catalyst? Their wireline revenues are declining and they haven't grown any of the new services revenues such as broadband of VOD, like, say Alaska Telecom has.
    Aug 6 12:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If I Was An Insider At NII Holdings, I Would Love This [View article]
    Aren't their competitors deploying 4G while NIHD is still focused on 3g? How can they survive being so far behind, even after tower sales?
    Aug 6 02:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Otelco Is An Attractive Post-Reorg Investment [View article]
    The management projects ~30m EBITDA going forward.

    So the forward EV/EBITDA at the current stock price is more like >5x, rather than the cheap 3.4x. Or so it seems to me?
    Jul 30 03:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fannie Mae And Freddie Mac, Short-Term Trade Or Deep Value Investment? [View article]
    >>Could be a typical bankruptcy deal where bondholders(maybe preferreds too) take a haircut in exchange for equity( wiping out the existing common holders)

    Typically this is done to recapitalize (i.e. restore equity) to a company. Since preferreds count as equity, there would be no point exchanging preferreds for the common. At least it seems so to me. If anyting, at least in theory, this would make sense for the bondholders.
    Jul 26 06:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fannie And Freddie Profits Not Going To Investors [View article]
    The government's legal claim is $117b preferred /10% coupon + warrants for the common. Now that the company is making $$ well in excess of the preferred coupon, taking them over 100% should in theory involve buying out other shareholders, in the very least $19b of junior preferreds.
    Jul 26 03:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fannie And Freddie Profits Not Going To Investors [View article]
    Right. Don't buy them now when they are clearly chap. Wait for the legal resolution so that you can consider buing them a full price. Is that the gist of the advice?
    Jul 25 04:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Go Long Novus Energy, Short Raging River [View article]
    I hear you.

    May I ask - what are some of these mining "net nets"?
    Jul 22 09:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Go Long Novus Energy, Short Raging River [View article]
    With so much headroom on the NPV, surprised no one stepped up and offered to take them out. This has been the situation for quite a few years now. Something is holding suitors back. Not sure what.
    Jul 22 07:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Go Long Novus Energy, Short Raging River [View article]
    @bankstocks. I agree - NVS seems quite cheap. Just concerned that if no "event", it may get worse with time as per apparent track record. Ideally I like time to work in my favor and not depend on any external takeovers. That "second" wind does not seem present here, barring some major discovery. But perhaps, given the discount to the current value, it not necessary,as the size of the discount off NPV itself is sufficiently large.
    Jul 22 06:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Go Long Novus Energy, Short Raging River [View article]
    @bankstocks

    2012 end: 2pNPV10atx = $317m - 69m net debt, 191m shares outst
    value/share $1.3

    2009 end: 2pNPV10atx = 42.7m + 22m net cash, 35m shares
    value/share $1.85

    Seems like a massive per share decline, no? NPV numbers from end of the year information filings.
    Jul 22 01:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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