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JeffreyLangBoyd

JeffreyLangBoyd
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  • BofA reportedly near $16B-$17B deal with DOJ [View news story]
    Settlement would tend to further reduce the likelihood that Countrywide is placed into bankruptcy so it could be viewed positively for Ambac. The odds were already pretty low so it isn't a game changer.

    If I saw indications of bankruptcy coming (which I definitely do not right now) for Countrywide, I would've shorted Ambac. Not willing to go long if they actually settle either.
    Aug 7 12:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: DragonWave Still Poised For Big Upside, Despite Recent Secondary Offering [View article]
    Would be nice if you would stop saying they "turn a profit" as they have said nothing of the sort but one can certainly respect your putting money where your mouth is.
    Aug 6 06:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BofA reportedly near $16B-$17B deal with DOJ [View news story]
    WSJ article said they were going to file a lawsuit against Merrill rather than Countrywide. That makes sense as I don't think they could have hurt the mortgage business that much by suing Countrywide.

    Will be interesting to see the breakdown between the two entities and how much "consumer relief" is offered. Not sure if consumer relief will actually involve charges to the P/L.
    Aug 6 05:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: DragonWave Still Poised For Big Upside, Despite Recent Secondary Offering [View article]
    You might want to take another look at that transcript. They are hoping for cash flow break even in one of those quarters. You want to call that profitable, that is fine with me.
    Aug 6 04:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: DragonWave Still Poised For Big Upside, Despite Recent Secondary Offering [View article]
    I can't figure out why anyone would think the industry is going to make money on a long-term basis. Maybe over the next couple of years but longer term some companies have to go out of business. Dragonwave was the weakest company and it would have been nice to see them die but I guess it won't happen anytime soon. Just too much capital chasing too few opportunities.
    Aug 4 11:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: DragonWave Still Poised For Big Upside, Despite Recent Secondary Offering [View article]
    50% revenue growth isn't anywhere close to what they need to get to break even (even the lower standard of EBITDA break even). They burned over $8 million in the August 2013 quarter and it just won't even be close.

    Long shots are sometimes worth taking but it sure seems hard to see this one working out and you are encouraging folks to pay a significant premium for that option.

    So why no speculation on the share issuance? What went wrong between the conference call just a few weeks ago and the share issuance?
    Aug 4 11:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NYT: BofA blinks in DOJ settlement talks [View news story]
    They did set it up to be "bankruptcy remote" as the term is used. The problem is that issues are rarely 100% clear and one sometimes takes risks such as purchasing many of Countrywide's operating assets from the Countrywide entity following the acquisition.

    This opinion sums things up well. It was written as part of the $8.5B settlement. There are others on the web site but this was the first one. In New York there was risk and with the exception of the Fannie/Freddie settlements, New York law has applied. Shooting from the hip I don't think New York law applies in the DOJ case but I'm sure they would argue that it does.

    http://bit.ly/1liHPOB
    Aug 1 07:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DT reportedly likes Sprint's bid better than Iliad's [View news story]
    Think that is pretty obvious.

    Also pretty obvious that regulators would prefer Iliad deal if T-Mobile is definitely in play unless Softbank is offering to put some extremely consumer friendly commitments into place as part of the deal.
    Jul 31 05:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NYT: BofA blinks in DOJ settlement talks [View news story]
    Yea I've read that too. I think most of the Countrywide settlement will be "soft" money, whatever that is, if the government has any interest in being fair.
    Jul 31 03:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NYT: BofA blinks in DOJ settlement talks [View news story]
    Would be fun to watch but it is very hard to do as there just aren't the protections in place as for example when you sue the IRS. The govt. can kill them whenever they want just like they killed Andersen.
    Jul 31 03:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • NYT: BofA blinks in DOJ settlement talks [View news story]
    They already said why they didn't. They were concerned that under New York law they would be deemed to be "successors" to old Countrywide as they purchased many of its assets. It was questionable that it did indeed apply but I think that is the way Judge Bransten likely would have ruled and that ruling even if later overturned might have killed BAC at that point in time.

    Now I'm not so sure. They might be able to do a bankruptcy but if the government revoked their banking licenses because of the indictment they'd be dead so I don't see how they can fight.
    Jul 31 03:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NYT: BofA blinks in DOJ settlement talks [View news story]
    I don't think putting CW into bankruptcy is totally off the table. When they were fighting with MBI it was tougher because the judge ruled New York law applied. They still have that judge in the Ambac case which is on-going but the big fear was that they would be overwhelmed with put-backs in New York. They've done a lot of things to put that risk down but the cost of taking care of those issues have involved so much money that one could reasonably say paying off some more is not worth the risk of putting CW into bankruptcy.

    Maybe $17 billion in cash is enough to take that risk? That is one of the reasons why I want to know what the Merrill portion of the amount is. It might make that path more appealing.

    Ultimately though you can't fight the government who can use the threat of shutting you down. Andersen wound up winning their case (Enron related) and look what it got them.
    Jul 31 02:04 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NYT: BofA blinks in DOJ settlement talks [View news story]
    Countrywide & Merrill - Would be nice if these articles would break the settlement talks down between the two. Doesn't really make a difference to BAC shareholders but it kind of does in terms of history.
    Jul 31 11:50 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix eyes Seinfeld SVOD rights [View news story]
    That $3B has been over many years. NFLX could do a deal where it could continued to be syndicated and streaming on top. Wouldn't be cheap but seems like it could be done.
    Jul 28 10:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chicago Bridge & Iron's (CBI) CEO on Q2 2014 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    I'm no expert but share prices move with the overall flow of money into the market and then secondarily with flow in and out of shares of individual companies. It doesn't take all that much to push things out of balance. PP definitely moved things when they published their initial article but I don't think they impacted today's movement except maybe to the extent of people may have bought when the report came out simply because of their bad track record wanted to unload.

    CBI shares will probably come back barring a decline in the market or construction industry but it could take a good period of time.
    Jul 25 07:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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