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serrall

serrall
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  • 3 Chinese Fashion Companies Dissected: Part 1 [View article]
    Agree. In their IPO filing XNY already had a new manufacturing facility in mind - but budgeted @USD18M only...
    Aug 18, 2012. 05:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Chinese Fashion Companies Dissected: Part 1 [View article]
    I believe the market is not concerned about the returns of the planned new factory, but about outright fraud. It is trading well below net cash!
    Aug 17, 2012. 02:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Teva Nearly 40% Undervalued, Merits 'Strong Buy' [View article]
    Why do you assume top line CAGR of 8.5% in the next half decade or so? What is TEVA going to do to supplement their overdependence on Copaxone (both in top line and margin) when patent expires ca. 2015? I would have appreciated some more due diligence on the stock...
    May 6, 2012. 11:39 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Star Bulk Carriers' CEO Discusses Q4 2011 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    Prior to this call I made a rough assessment of SBLK's fleet, assigning a value of USD30M/cape and USD20M/supra. Obviously, these prices do take into account the avg. age of each ship class. During the call, mgmt. said current mkt value of fleet was USD348M, which is pretty close to my calculation.
    On the other hand, firm value is well below this figure: 60M mcap + 218M net debt=278M. If asset values do stay where they are now, and rates give some support (during the call mgmt. assumed (wished?) some rate spikes), they won't need to use their cash reserves to pay the principal due 2012 (I estimate 2012 EBITDA at 46M, which will turn out to be around 30-40M CF from operations).
    In other words, share price should double (mcap=120-130M) by EO2012 if asset prices remain where they are - which makes sense since oldest tonnage is being sold at near-scrap levels and SBLK slashes down net debt to USD190M (by EO2012 we should have 190M net debt plus 130M mcap=320M firm value=asset value by EO2012 - I assume some depreciation here).
    From my point of view, the Co. won't go under, they have paid all of their vessels and there is only one way forward:up. There might be some ugly surprises (pls. take a look at PRGN, which went well below any rational valuation), but I believe there is a strong support around 1$.
    -- text written before sale of Star Ypsilon and damages in Star Polaris--. Changes are not material. Star Polaris will be rechartered above the 16.5k/d of the previous charter, so the news are not so bad if repair is paid by insurance.
    My call is for SBLK to double by EO2012, but there is no way it can go above USD2
    Mar 4, 2012. 06:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Against Portfolio Diversification [View article]
    Good pick (I am long here as well) but tend to agree with PalmDesertRat. Taking advantage of your insight on the stock, do you have any idea of their strategic plans to deliver more value to sholders? thanks
    Feb 23, 2012. 09:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LHC Group - Beaten Up, But Addressing A Huge Growth Market [View article]
    Good review, you might want to add it is a quite cheap play with virtually no debt on its balance sheet. This should enable them to pursue acquisitions of smaller, distressed players.
    Feb 15, 2012. 05:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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