gearle0521

Housing Bubble and Real Estate Market Tracker

Comment on why California and other states haven't felt the downturns effect:

Very few journeyman tradesmen are left in the homebuilding business. From what I see, the builder economy is almost like a tale of two worker groups, white collar and blue collar. The white collar workers do the financing, land management, architecture and constrution management work and the blue collar workers build the homes. There are relatively few white collar jobs in comparison to the blue collar pool. The blue collar pool though much more numerous is filled with immigrant or near-immigrant labor like the farming industry. Those workers may or may not be affecting the economy locally but will have little effect on the overall economy. The big question is whether the manufacturing and large consumer product industries (best buy, sears, home depot) will be affected by the lack of cash the home buyers have for large purchases.

Why Dendreon's Provenge Must Be Approved

I think the following are important and conflicting arguments:
* the FDA is pursuing their OWN prostate cancer vaccine. This means they are serious in believing this is a direction to be heading.
* I think the oncologists are starting to believe that cancer must be killed this way...by the body. even if a magical chemical could kill cells, unless you kill the mechanism creating NEW cellls, the cancer will come back. therefore we must teach the body to kill and continue to kill the cells.
* An approvable letter is like a disapproval to a patient because it won't be marketed. It may seem like a middle ground but it's not. Approval, doctors can prescribe it. Disapproval or approvable letter, doctors can't prescribe it.
* I don't think the FDA gives a crap about the stock. They can't. They 'kill' biotech stocks all the time; they're used to their decisions making and breaking stocks.
* People argue that they have to issue the approvable letter just to be safe. No. They could approve it, watch it and then PULL it if they think they made a mistake. They would be watching this like no other cancer drug in a long while.
* There is a chance they approve it with a label limitation concerning different ethnic groups since there was a strange divergence of issues/problems between different groups. But this would still be an approval. Maybe it only doubles then ;-)
* I can't say whether I'm bullish or bearish, I haven't made up my mind yet. So I guess I'm currently an agnostic trader.
* I am writing this as well to convince myself one way or another ;-)

Update on Dendreon's Briefing Docs: Provenge Missed All Endpoints

Hmmm... NO posts today????

Update on Dendreon's Briefing Docs: Provenge Missed All Endpoints

I guess you're going to be hot water Friday.