bryanz

Don't Expect Oil Prices to Break $50 Until Q2 - FirstEnergy Capital

The last two times oil got rejected at $50 it headed below $35. The rejection off $50 this time, the price drop looks much more shallow. It will be interesting to see if it drops convincingly below $40 but the oil bulls definitely seem to have put up a fight.

Future cuts in production, even considering the oversupply that's got oil tankers being used for storage, seem to be making the bears cautious?

Looking at the 3 month chart, oil has made a series of higher lows since December. A break below $35 would be a strong sign for the bears. If it can hold above approx $37.50 on this latest down leg, it may be a buy signal (at least until it gets rejected at $50 again).

A $40 Bottom in Oil?

I don't necessarily think this is a projection that oil is going to $40. It's more like a expect-this-to-happen-...

Aside From Oil, Most Commodities At Bottom of Trading Ranges

It's interesting that most of the trading bands (save coffee and OJ) are narrower than normal yet, like the article points out nearly all commodities are pushing against or have dropped through the bottom of their respective trading bands. I assume this suggests increased volatility after a period of relative stability, or maybe rather predictability?