bryanz

Palm: Target Increase to $14 in 'Pre' Anticipation

At the end of 2007 Sprint reported a standard post-paid user base of roughly 41M people. In order to sell 10M Pre smartphones (assuming zero growth which is feasible considering Sprint has been hemorrhaging customers for a while) that would mean the Pre would have to be sold to 25% of Sprint's customer base!

Now if it becomes available to many other global networks (is the current version compatible as a world phone?) then that takes some of the pressure off of Sprint to sell all 10M of the units, but still, we haven't heard hardly a peep from international carriers except your one O2 comment.

I still see PALM as a buy the rumor, sell the news type of company. And come early June I'll probably be selling the news.

Palm: Hot or Hype?

Don't know if you read the Boy Genius Report but he's cited other PALM handsets running WebOS that will be available for other carriers in the future.

I agree that Pre on Sprint doesn't necessarily inspire confidence since it's a long-shot company on a shrinking carrier. Hearing they have devices planned for other networks put a pause to some of my negativity about PALM's prospects.

I want to short the heck out of this stock because the run-up has just been nuts, but fighting the tape and calling a top just leads to most people cashing out in the red.

If the June 7th release date is true, come early June I think would be a good time to buy some puts on the stock. I have a feeling it may end up being a buy the rumor, sell the news type of event.

Palm: No Middle Ground

So they diluted current shareholders to gather enough cash to make it through to June when they hope the device they're launching on Sprint will lure customers away from iPhones on AT&T and Storms on Verizon? And their EPS loss was even higher than the Street expected?

What are PALM's expectations of the device by year end?
How long is it exclusive on Sprint?

I just can't see this ending good for PALM but there's so much expectation on the device that the stock seems resistant to the really, really bad news in earnings.

@Savitz I get what you're saying about only two outcomes, good or bad. But I don't think there's likely to be much action on the stock until they report again in May or we get some initial impressions on the sales numbers.

Palm's High Stakes Pre Intro Announcement

Look it's debatable whether or not the Pre is "better" than the iPhone but what the average consumer cares about is does it provide a better experience than the iPhone? I'd say right now the answer is almost certainly not.

The iPhone has the App Store, iTunes, etc. already in place. The Pre supposedly surfs the web really well but is going to need lots of developers to program for it.

Apple made it so that developers who program for OSX could program for the iPhone. There's no comparable infrastructure in place for the Pre.

Another poster talked about Palm's name recognition. Palm Pilots were considered "cool" like 12 years ago. No one's taken the Treo seriously in the past 3-4 years. Palm's name is mud in the eyes of most smartphone users.

Do consumers really need another smartphone OS? BB OS, iPhone's OS, Nokia's OS (Symbian?), Android, WinMo, now WebOS??? There's only so much consumers care about an if the user experience isn't there then consumers won't care what it runs.


On Mar 11 08:06 AM Aryamehr wrote:

> The Pre is unequivocally a much better phone than the iPhone, all you need to do is use it and it will speak
> for itself. The phone is going to need very little marketing, it
> will be sold out on its first week of introduction.

Palm's Pre: Salvation in Sunnyvale?

How do you expect the Pre to work without a data connection? You're harping on the iPhone and Blackberry as being expensive because they require a data connection but every smartphone requires a data package. If the Pre is a "smartphone" it will be no different.

And like other people have said: it's on Sprint.


On Feb 23 11:23 PM reitmedia wrote:

> Unlike the iPhone which
> is on the most expensive network and unlike the Blackberry which
> always require an expensive Blackberry data plan, the PRE is designed
> to be open to other networks and for many developers.
>

Palm Continues to Bask in the Glow of Pre

nice use of the English language:
"Janakowski, who takes over coverage of the company from Thomas Lee." =)

I still can't get past PALM as being a has-been... or also-ran... or just yet another 'iPhone killer.'

Relegating the handset to Sprint, who seems to be hemorrhaging customers like it's going out of style, and still expecting 1M units even though it won't ship until Q3 of 2009 seems like pretty lofty expectations.

Palm Pre Sales Guesstimate: 1.5 Million in First Year

I feel like this is something you should have written about a decade ago when PALM Pilots were still for sale or when people where still buying Treos... PALM is down and out, trying to bust into a crowded market on a declining network, and it won't be sold for another six months.

PALM should be back below $5 at some point in the near future.

On Jan 13 11:41 AM MTVDAVE wrote:

> I think this stock is going to be huge.If palm had rimm's market
> cap,the stock would be trading at ten cents.With their new products
> and name recognition this stock is going way up!The people that are
> negative on this stock are just upset because they feel they missed
> the boat,but it's not to late!

Palm Pre Sales Guesstimate: 1.5 Million in First Year

1.5 million units for the Pre, exclusive to Sprint at 40 million postpaid subs (I'm assuming the Pre won't be offered prepaid), is roughly 4.25% of their subscriber base buying this phone.

Is that feasible? That seems pretty high considering the projected launch isn't until half the year is already over. PALM has a gap below $5 that's just begging to be filled, especially in this market.

Palm's Pre Goes a Step Further Than the iPhone

RK makes a good point... Look at the desktop OS mix. There's Windows, OS X, and Linux... much beyond that and you're not just niche, you're uber-niche. And the other OS's are all pretty well established.

Another point I saw brought up was whether or not the WebOS would be backwards compatible with Palm's previous apps. A lot of people who are hanging onto their Palm Pilots would probably love to upgrade to a 21st century device, but if they don't take that into consideration they'll probably upset some of their most loyal customers.


On Jan 09 09:22 AM RK wrote:

> The world already has Symbian, OS X, Android, RIM, Win mobile. That
> is 5. The new Palm OS makes it 6. This cannot last. I see only 3-4
> standing at the end. OS X, Win mobile, and Android would be my bet
> due to they are funded by deep deep pocket companies.

Palm: Showing Up the Analysts

Jegan and Huneycutt have it right... PALM is a short at these price levels.

Limiting the Pre to Sprint, especially initially, seems like a really bad move. If it's CDMA why not put it on VZW? Or why not release the rumored GSM Pre on AT&T or T-Mo at the same time?

On the west coast I haven't heard many positive things about Sprint, and my experience with Nextel has really been nothing but negative so that means based on the network I'd never even consider looking at this device.

As as far as shipping 10s of millions of units, BoyGenius had a report saying the device would have a $400 price point. If that's true, good luck moving that.

The iPhone moved those kinds of units because it was the first phone of its kind. This one will be another also-ran.

The Convergence Device Movement

Ok, here's the problem... first off none of these are really "facts" they're observations...
1. RIM sold only 2.2 times as many phones as Apple, a company that had never sold a phone before.
--Is this is a quarter or over the life of the iPhone so far? To reverse your logic, a new phone with tons of hype from one of the best branded companies in the world failed to outsell a phone manufacturer that supposedly "overestimated its ability to connect to its customers" and "has spread itself to thin."

2. RIM sold through 325 carriers, Apple through very few
--Uh, whoopity doo. This may very well be a "fact" but your rants and raves (maybe you should post on craigslist!) don't really show the relevance. Is this supposed to tie into the previous post and say tell us that AAPL outsells RIMM on the carriers that AAPL has agreed to supply with iPhones? Maybe that's because those ARE the only carriers that you can get an iPhone on... hmm.

3. RIM has overestimated its ability to connect with consumers.
You need a great mouse trap to make consumer stick to a device for the future and iTunes & Video Download service is the magic key
--This is absolutely not a fact, it's pure conjecture and if you believe it's a fact then you're delusional. The business world is still RIMMs and Apple's iPhone SDK and ActiveSync isn't going to convince a company that already purchased 50,000 BlackBerrys to dump them in the trash and tie themselves to AT&T. It's simply not going to happen on any wide scale. Small shops that are just getting started or can afford to scrap a few BBs, maybe.


4. RIM has spread itself too thin with Push Email and SMS and Browsing interface stinks.
--RIMM has allowed all types of software to be developed for their phone for a long time and no one is stuck using the web browser. Push email was RIMMs cup of tea, how did they spread themselves too thin with that? And what does SMS have to do with it? RIMM didn't develop text messaging.

For the record, I'm long AAPL and RIMM. I want them both to succeed and I think they will both continue to for the foreseeable future. You apparently didn't like your BlackBerry or you've got a big short position in RIMM because you dump on them like no one's business.

The thing is your mindless rants and your copies of obscure "Reuters" articles don't impress anyone. They just take up space on the page and you look like a comment troll. So add something meaningful to the conversation or go find a yahoo board to spam.

The Convergence Device Movement

"Can you challenge these facts

India news Blackout by RIMM management and Media crooks under the RIMM ticker feed.....?? "

No I certainly can't because they aren't FACTS, they're the deranged rantings of a mad man who chooses to flood posts with comments that are 10x as long as the original article. Go set up a blog and beg for people to read it instead of flooding this site with copied & pasted articles and overly-biased rants.

The Convergence Device Movement

The idea of giving up a laptop for one an iPhone makes sense for some people, but those people probably didn't really need laptops in the first place. If someone had a laptop because they needed to read email in the airport, then yeah, you could swap out the laptop for a smart phone. But until you can plug peripherals into the iPhone and somehow magically give it 15" screen, laptops will still be an essential component of business mobility.

BTW------------
Ken Singh = SPAM... this guy is on every AAPL or RIMM post he can find copying & pasting conspiracy theory nonsense. Go put on your tinfoil hat and unplug your computer, weirdo.