Quote: "Rather, the problem with bubbles is that they burst"
This isn't really true. A bubble in housing prices destroys new family formation. A bubble in commodities destroys manufacturing companies. Bubbles create massive carnage and disruptions on the way up, as well as the way down.
Between 1929-1934, Portugal, Japan, Norway, Denmark, the UK, Sweden, Australia, and Spain all experienced economic growth during a prolonged 5 year deflationary period.
Fed Research Paper: "The data suggest that deflation is not closely related to depression. A broad historical look finds many more periods of deflation with reasonable growth than with depression and many more periods of depression with inflation than with deflation. Overall, the data show virtually no link between deflation and depression." http://bit.ly/xrWX69
The equation is valid, but doesn't answer anything. Velocity has plunged because the base has tripled, while transactions and prices have been relatively flat.. All that tells us is what we already know, that the new money isn't doing anything because banks aren't lending. The big question is why?
That seems silly. Any computerized operation that can be performed by a "dunce" should have been automated away years ago.
The valuable custom apps that companies are reluctant to put on a public cloud include such things as proprietary models for forecasting operational needs, designing new products, or keeping your supply chain as efficient as possible. If you've got code that handles these tasks better than commercially available products, you want to keep them close to the chest.
James Altucher: Why The Stock Market Is A Sucker's Game Right Now (And What Stocks I Own) [View article]
Hmm, I think James is about right. I like looking at 52-week forward earnings, and back in Feb thought I was incredibly bullish that equities would get dangerously expensive when the S&P hit 1,600.
Well now its essentially there, the market is due for a pullback, and there is just no room for prices to break above the current levels without hitting very expensive prices. Forward earnings have edged up a bit since then too, and maybe 1650 is the magic number, but the risk/reward for being long the overall market just isn't there anymore.
Nice free source of 52-week forward PE data: http://bit.ly/SseJSh (no affiliation). Check Figure 17... pricey equities.
Keep One Eye On Google's Secret Weapon [View article]
What makes you think Google would have to bear any costs if they take it on a city by city basis? Cities may be willing to pony up the money with a bond issuance, given the benefits they would receive on higher property values and attracting more businesses.
There have been numerous comments outlining the two of the risks large companies are exposed to with public clouds, re: security and downtime. However what's been missed are two other large risks: outright data destruction and patent infringement liabilities.
If you maintain a private cloud, you know if you're data is being replicated in multiple locations to prevent data loss. If you're a cloud customer you don't know, as many AWS customers have already found to their detriment. Any business professional should get chills from the idea of receiving a letter like the below, that went out to many AWS customers a few years ago:
"Hello, A few days ago we sent you an email letting you know that we were working on recovering an inconsistent data snapshot of one or more of your Amazon EBS volumes. We are very sorry, but ultimately our efforts to manually recover your volume were unsuccessful. The hardware failed in such a way that we could not forensically restore the data." link: http://read.bi/YPf00N
The second risk is patent infringement lawsuits. Due to the deplorable state of the U.S. patent office, awarding millions of patents for such things as broad as "saving a long filename to a mass storage device", its become virtually impossible to write a line of code without potentially exposing your company to a lawsuit from a patent troll. Much of a large company's proprietary data are custom applications developed in-house that have never been vetted by a legal team, as they were never intended to be released outside the company. While no court is going to allow anyone to subpoena random companies' proprietary data to blindly fish for actionable material, a cloud provider certainly will if the price is right. If the SLA doesn't currently allow for this abuse, a cloud provider can change it on a whim.
Short Selling A Pair Of Leveraged ETFs: A Goldmine Or A Bad Idea? [View article]
I'm not sure how anyone has made money trying this. I experimented with this a while ago using investopedia's stock simulator. I'd always lose far more money on one side than I was gaining on the other.
It Can Happen Here: The Confiscation Scheme Planned For U.S. And U.K. Depositors [View article]
He's a Federalist, neither conservative, nor liberal so there was never any betrayal. In any case that allows him to expand the reach of the Federal government over the states, he will rule against the states. It doesn't matter whether the case is about euthanasia, mandatory healthcare, or a bimbo seeking her billionaire boyfriend's estate.
Don't Fear The Bubble [View article]
"Rather, the problem with bubbles is that they burst"
This isn't really true. A bubble in housing prices destroys new family formation. A bubble in commodities destroys manufacturing companies. Bubbles create massive carnage and disruptions on the way up, as well as the way down.
Why Inflation Never Came [View article]
From a Federal Reserve research paper that finds no link between deflation and depressions.
Why Inflation Never Came [View article]
Fed Research Paper:
"The data suggest that deflation is not closely related to depression. A broad historical look finds many more periods of deflation with reasonable growth than with depression and many more periods of depression with inflation than with deflation. Overall, the data show virtually no link between deflation and depression."
http://bit.ly/xrWX69
Why Inflation Never Came [View article]
Trading Autodesk Inc. Pre-Earnings [View article]
Is Bank Of America Fairly Valued At $12.85? [View article]
I suppose the only conclusion that an unbiased observer could have is that BAC is being undervalued by the market?
IBM: A Disaster In The Making [View article]
The valuable custom apps that companies are reluctant to put on a public cloud include such things as proprietary models for forecasting operational needs, designing new products, or keeping your supply chain as efficient as possible. If you've got code that handles these tasks better than commercially available products, you want to keep them close to the chest.
James Altucher: Why The Stock Market Is A Sucker's Game Right Now (And What Stocks I Own) [View article]
Well now its essentially there, the market is due for a pullback, and there is just no room for prices to break above the current levels without hitting very expensive prices. Forward earnings have edged up a bit since then too, and maybe 1650 is the magic number, but the risk/reward for being long the overall market just isn't there anymore.
Nice free source of 52-week forward PE data: http://bit.ly/SseJSh (no affiliation). Check Figure 17... pricey equities.
Keep One Eye On Google's Secret Weapon [View article]
IBM: A Disaster In The Making [View article]
If you maintain a private cloud, you know if you're data is being replicated in multiple locations to prevent data loss. If you're a cloud customer you don't know, as many AWS customers have already found to their detriment. Any business professional should get chills from the idea of receiving a letter like the below, that went out to many AWS customers a few years ago:
"Hello,
A few days ago we sent you an email letting you know that we were working on recovering an inconsistent data snapshot of one or more of your Amazon EBS volumes. We are very sorry, but ultimately our efforts to manually recover your volume were unsuccessful. The hardware failed in such a way that we could not forensically restore the data."
link: http://read.bi/YPf00N
The second risk is patent infringement lawsuits. Due to the deplorable state of the U.S. patent office, awarding millions of patents for such things as broad as "saving a long filename to a mass storage device", its become virtually impossible to write a line of code without potentially exposing your company to a lawsuit from a patent troll. Much of a large company's proprietary data are custom applications developed in-house that have never been vetted by a legal team, as they were never intended to be released outside the company. While no court is going to allow anyone to subpoena random companies' proprietary data to blindly fish for actionable material, a cloud provider certainly will if the price is right. If the SLA doesn't currently allow for this abuse, a cloud provider can change it on a whim.
Gold's Crash, Europe's Woes Signal Global Decline: Companies To Watch [View article]
You realize you are essentially advocating giving the BRICS a euro right?
I'm not saying it's a bad idea, however Europe proves that when things get tough, the central banks get busy.
Short Selling A Pair Of Leveraged ETFs: A Goldmine Or A Bad Idea? [View article]
I guesss I'll need to fire up SQL server, or Quantshare if i want to look into it more closely.
Short Selling A Pair Of Leveraged ETFs: A Goldmine Or A Bad Idea? [View article]
When I tested this using that Investopedia simulator, it assumed a single 100k portfolio with $20 per trade transaction costs (which is pretty steep).
If you were rebalancing a large portfolio daily with small transaction costs, that may explain the difference.
Short Selling A Pair Of Leveraged ETFs: A Goldmine Or A Bad Idea? [View article]
It Can Happen Here: The Confiscation Scheme Planned For U.S. And U.K. Depositors [View article]