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moseslarsen

moseslarsen
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  • Ensco plunges 8% following surprise dividend cut [View news story]
    Does this really qualify as a surprise??
    Feb 26, 2015. 04:08 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM Is Undervalued And Provides Vast Upside In 2015: Algorithmic Analysis [View article]
    Bought more IBM on Monday, ahead of BRK news and IBM's discussion next week.

    Regards, Moses
    Feb 18, 2015. 02:57 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nucor Corporation: A Big Catalyst Cyclical Ready To Move [View article]
    Old Wizard, thank you for the anecdotal info. It is refreshing...and I look forward to adding NUE to my stable of holdings shortly.

    Cheers, Moses
    Feb 12, 2015. 11:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Nucor Corporation: A Big Catalyst Cyclical Ready To Move [View article]
    Ray, thanks for getting right back to me. I continued to trade MT from 2011 to early 2014 and did fairly well...but I watched it like a hawk. Its amazing how you start to feel the company if you really get into it...heck, maybe I was just lucky.

    I have been putting my nose into the books on this pair because I am trying to shake MT from my bones...

    So many items tilt in favor of NUE, yet I pause...the milling process, company ethic, ROTC, ROSE, pension commitment (NUE - none...MT behind the eight ball), debt load, etc...all seem to favor NUE. Yet MT is dumping assets to get its far-flung empire back into fighting shape. Their determination to reduce the debt load is impressive. Selling their 50% stake in Gallatin to NUE for $770M may truly favor MT in the short term, as tube and pipe may very well come under pressure with the capex reduction in the oil and gas space. The dollar will probably not be friendly to NUE in the immediate future as it remains strong.

    Looking at Value Line, I quickly averaged the 10 year low stock price for both companies and get $19.67 for MT (current price $10) and $34.01 10 yr avg for NUE (current price $48)...I know that NUE maintains a significant position as one of the stalwarts in domestic steel, and that respect is baked into the stock price...

    I so want to own NUE, yet I just cant quite get over MT yet. Anchoring bias? Maybe...if you showed me NUE with a 4% div yield I may be tempted a bit more...yet MT probably has between 100-200% upside from here to 2017.

    I am vexed...maybe I should buy NUE in my 1 year old son's portfolio...

    Again, many regards Ray.
    Feb 11, 2015. 11:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Nucor Corporation: A Big Catalyst Cyclical Ready To Move [View article]
    Ray, I have always appreciated your straightforward work. I have been waiting patiently to start building a position in NUE. In addition, I try to employ the 4% div rule when I am considering a new commitment...I made some nice money in SPLS in the last 6 months-ish applying the same technique.

    My problem is I am torn...torn between the "forever stock I have always wanted" (NUE) at current valuations contrasted with MT and its global reach. MT - on a P/B metric, looks ridiculously cheap right now...and I have had past success trading it infrequently but effectively for gains. I successfully exited MT again before its recent run down below $10, but now I find it an even better "value" than NUE.

    Lakshmi Mittal built a global steel behemoth with grit and intelligence, much like the forefathers at Nucor. This one is killing me...

    Can I 'borrow' some cash from you for an extended period so I can buy both?!

    Cheers, Moses
    Feb 11, 2015. 10:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Peabody Energy names Kellow as new CEO [View news story]
    ^ Funny! Moses
    Jan 22, 2015. 05:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The North Antelope Rochelle Mine: An Important Competitive Advantage For Peabody Energy [View article]
    I own BTU presently and am sitting on my most egregious loss since beginning this stock game, greater than 60% down. <--That is painful. I also own uranium juniors and oil services. All painful. However, this to shall pass. I dont know if I can afford to add more to BTU, but the price is just plain stupid at this point.

    @ Samadamsftw - thanks for the insight. I am curious how long it will take the tier 1 railroads to get the glut of cheap crude out of the way to deliver coal to domestice power plants in the US...this will be interesting to watch.

    Whether stupid or genius, I am long BTU and sticking with it.

    Regards, Moses
    Jan 22, 2015. 11:19 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Recent Buy: National Oilwell Varco, Inc. [View article]
    DM, thanks for the article on NOV. I like their recent focus on raising the dividend. Although we may go through a soft patch here for a few quarters, management seems truly focused on delivering shareholder value. Acquisitions could prove quite beneficial considering the extreme pessimism in the oil and energy space right now...

    Great choice for your long term portfolio! I am long NOV and getting longer under $66 a share, when I can put new money to work...I am also adding to my IBM position at this juncture...little bit to NOV little bit to IBM.

    Cheers, Moses
    Jan 9, 2015. 11:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware value traps among offshore drillers, analyst says [View news story]
    Guess I will just have to continue throwing my money away on ESV. And NOV and... and...

    Regards, Moses
    Jan 6, 2015. 06:39 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Last Minute Stock Shopping Spree [View article]
    Mark, looks good. Happy 2015...great minds think alike.

    I bought more NOV (week and a half ago), I bought more IBM (Wednesday), and am going to try to find new money to put to work in BBL...cause it looks too good to pass up.

    Regards, Moses
    Jan 2, 2015. 11:59 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Failure With Peabody Which Has Become A Speculative Position [View article]
    Agree Paul. In BTU about the same place as you...perspective AND patience for the new year. HAPPY NEW YEAR! Moses
    Jan 1, 2015. 12:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Failure With Peabody Which Has Become A Speculative Position [View article]
    AI,

    People do not have a firm enough grounding in the sciences to be able to properly debate the issues. Anthropogenic change is real. Natural cyclic heating and cooling is also real. As a species, we will not live long enough to prove or disprove climate change.

    I used to teach geology, meteorology, and the other processes behind global warming, or climate change, or whatever the term du jour is...to HS students. Your comment about CH4 - methane, is spot on. That particular molecule is much more problematic versus some other actors, like CO2. CFCs are even more deleterious...but then we need to discuss volumes of these gases...hell, I am out of practice in this arena.

    Happy new year, Moses

    Dec 31, 2014. 11:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 2014 In Review: Best Of The Silver Bullet Awards [View article]
    Super fun! Merry ha ha! Cheers, Moses
    Dec 30, 2014. 10:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ModernGraham Quarterly Valuation Of National Oilwell Varco [View article]
    AJR...No free lunch, hence the air quotes!! Roger that...


    Good to hear...I figured we were on the same page, I just didnt want to miss something obvious, which is always possible. I did pay a little less as I have been in for a number of years...


    If a name I hold hits my original buy price, which it did in this case, I usually consider pumping some fresh couch cushion change into the position...


    Enjoy 2015. Moses
    Dec 30, 2014. 03:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ModernGraham Quarterly Valuation Of National Oilwell Varco [View article]
    AJR..., the 'free' DNOW shares will remain in my account. How is this $66 price point different from the last $66 price point? I still feel confident that NOV intrinsic is somewhere north of $100, conservatively speaking, which means a pretty decent MOS still exists at this juncture. Let me clarify that I am truly LONG, as opposed to just someone who is stating that.

    Are you suggesting that I wait a bit to squeeze a couple more eagles off pennies before growing my NOV position? Curious to see what you think at this juncture! Happy investing...

    Cheers, Moses
    Dec 30, 2014. 02:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
432 Comments
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