Commodity Chart Of The Day: Disjointed Market - Where Are The Flows Going? [View article]
Thanks for the solid read, Matthew. I am about 80% in cash in my 401/457 if that tells you anything about where I think we are in the macro picture.
I was curious what you thought of steel, coal, and uranium at this juncture? In my equities book, I bought ACI, BTU, MT, and a speculative bet on URZ. MT is my largest position. I guess I have already diversified as I thought valuations on the above were solid.
ArcelorMittal: Medium-Term Trade And Long-Term Investment [View article]
XRT (and perks), thanks for the updates. Just an observation - we are currently commenting on the extreme short terms movements in the marketplace. I think that 'short term' conversation is a good one to be aware of, however, in support of your article's title...its the medium and longer term that will prove beneficial to shareholders.
Is Now The Time To Buy ArcelorMittal? [View article]
Kevin, thanks for the solid article. I am with Vireo - I thought I was fully loaded to, but if it hangs around 12 long enough for me to find new cash, my position will grow.
The Coal Industry Is Getting Crushed [View article]
RE Healthcare: We didnt "control" most bugs until a few decades ago, bugs that killed millions and millions of people...I could quote from Ivan Ilich's seminal work from the early 1970s entitled "Tools For Conviviality" on my knowledge of "healthcare" and how it relates to technological advances in modern times, but I dont know if that would convince you that I know anything about anything.
PS. I did not go to medical school, but I did invest in ACI and BTU as they seemed like reasonably cheap companies whose stocks will rise over the next 12-24 months.
The Coal Industry Is Getting Crushed [View article]
Netzerp, you wold have to dig through old articles to see if you can find the info you are after, but your logic is sound. As you would expect, if you watch traincar loads of coal, that one indicator can offer insight into the "security" of coal stockpiles. I believe CSX and NSC and UNP offered reduced coal car load totals again this past qtr, but I surmise that the bottom is in or really close. BTU mgmt offered support to that last statement in their quarterly earnings conversations.
As you heard through 2012, power generation coal inventories were high as the NG switch was on. With a more normal winter and a reasonably hot summer, coal piles will need to be fed to keep baseload production even...you cannot cycle a coal plant on and off like a natural gas plant...natural gas plants are normally used for peaking power, which means in the past they would only be turned on in the dead of an Arctic winter and the heat of a scorcher in summer. As NG rises through $4 to $5 or so, coal plants begin to look good again to power producers. NG peaking plants will still be used, but coal fired baseload will come back based on economics.
Sorry if that sounded a bit preachy...no meant to be.
The Coal Industry Is Getting Crushed [View article]
Unfortunately, Gumby hits this hypocrisy right square on the head. We berate coal fired electric production (which keeps the juice flowing to all our gadgets), we crucify nuclear production for the dastardly effects that it may have on flora and fauna (while it is a consistently cheap source of power on a per megawatt basis) yet we freely burn various fossil fuels in less regulated environments like campfires, fireplaces, woodstoves, chain saws, scooters, lawn mowers, etc and expect that it is our right to do that whenever we desire. Heck, people smoke tobacco products all day long outside without a catalytic scrubber being placed on their person to control the emissions. Cows eat grass and release methane all the time. Termites eat wood and release methane in the same manner. Laugh it up, but its true. Do you understand the difference between CO2's effects on our environment verus the effect of CH4 on our environment?
Have you ever driven by a refinery? At night? Check the gas flares which consume leftover gas as it cannot be used or sold due to oversupply...dont get me started.
And yes, I taught environmental science courses at the high school level.
Risky Stocks In A Complacent Market [View article]
622...I could say the same thing about coal, or just about any other beaten down sector...KOL may work for some and that is just fine. Each of us has to make peace with the amount of risk we are willing to take on in any market... We also have to consider our investment goals and take appropriate action to achieve them. I bought two names in the coal sector recently - ACI and BTU - instead of the ETF. Most folks should probably avoid the names I am buying, but I am alright with my level of risk...
Back to MT, I do not believe that they will go bankrupt. I feel confident that they will be around for a couple more years, to say the least. Plus MT has a price to book value that enticed me from a value perspective.
Risky Stocks In A Complacent Market [View article]
Marpy, in my opinion Mr. Mittal is a beast! Isn't it good business practice to buy plants on the cheap and then work to bring those plants standards up? Isn't it better to buy when there is blood in the streets? Isn't it intelligent to get ahead of a trend? If you think bigger picture, I find MT Americas ops to be in a decent position to gain margin while increasing synergies as the global auto industry increases production in Mexico to feed the growing vehicular needs from the southern tip of Chile all the way to the Yukon ...transport costs, baby...
With the exception of European Union nonsense, which is basically out of their control, I believe MT mgmt has made some savvy moves in this economic environment. Chopping the dividend, which did nothing to quell angry income investors, may have added to the bludgeoning of the share price. However, short term pain will have a meaningful impact on the books as we exit the trough in steel demand.
Regarding iron ore, securing long term supply at relatively cheap total input costs (measured from trough to trough in the steel demand cycle) is what the purchase of dirt is all about, right? Doesn't it seem like a worthy investment in that sense? It might seem expensive in the short term...but mgmt then turned around and sold off a portion of the whole for a sum greater than the return they would have earned if they had held onto the full stake, and applied those "winnnings" to debt reduction today, while steel prices are still in the crapper.
Its definitely not all roses, but my opinion is that MT emerges from this cycle capturing a larger portion of the global steel market in a few short years.
Commodity Chart Of The Day: Disjointed Market - Where Are The Flows Going? [View article]
I was curious what you thought of steel, coal, and uranium at this juncture? In my equities book, I bought ACI, BTU, MT, and a speculative bet on URZ. MT is my largest position. I guess I have already diversified as I thought valuations on the above were solid.
Regards, Moses
ArcelorMittal: Medium-Term Trade And Long-Term Investment [View article]
ArcelorMittal: Medium-Term Trade And Long-Term Investment [View article]
Regards, Moses
Is Now The Time To Buy ArcelorMittal? [View article]
Regards, Moses
The Coal Industry Is Getting Crushed [View article]
The Coal Industry Is Getting Crushed [View article]
We didnt "control" most bugs until a few decades ago, bugs that killed millions and millions of people...I could quote from Ivan Ilich's seminal work from the early 1970s entitled "Tools For Conviviality" on my knowledge of "healthcare" and how it relates to technological advances in modern times, but I dont know if that would convince you that I know anything about anything.
PS. I did not go to medical school, but I did invest in ACI and BTU as they seemed like reasonably cheap companies whose stocks will rise over the next 12-24 months.
Cheers, Moses
The Coal Industry Is Getting Crushed [View article]
The Coal Industry Is Getting Crushed [View article]
As you heard through 2012, power generation coal inventories were high as the NG switch was on. With a more normal winter and a reasonably hot summer, coal piles will need to be fed to keep baseload production even...you cannot cycle a coal plant on and off like a natural gas plant...natural gas plants are normally used for peaking power, which means in the past they would only be turned on in the dead of an Arctic winter and the heat of a scorcher in summer. As NG rises through $4 to $5 or so, coal plants begin to look good again to power producers. NG peaking plants will still be used, but coal fired baseload will come back based on economics.
Sorry if that sounded a bit preachy...no meant to be.
Regards, Moses
The Coal Industry Is Getting Crushed [View article]
Have you ever driven by a refinery? At night? Check the gas flares which consume leftover gas as it cannot be used or sold due to oversupply...dont get me started.
And yes, I taught environmental science courses at the high school level.
Regards, Moses
Long ACI and BTU.
The Coal Industry Is Getting Crushed [View article]
I clicked on it though...am I the greater fool?
Long ACI and BTU.
Regards, Moses
Coal: Week In Review [View article]
Coal: Week In Review [View article]
It's Almost May, So Go Away [View article]
Risky Stocks In A Complacent Market [View article]
Back to MT, I do not believe that they will go bankrupt. I feel confident that they will be around for a couple more years, to say the least. Plus MT has a price to book value that enticed me from a value perspective.
Regards, Moses
Risky Stocks In A Complacent Market [View article]
With the exception of European Union nonsense, which is basically out of their control, I believe MT mgmt has made some savvy moves in this economic environment. Chopping the dividend, which did nothing to quell angry income investors, may have added to the bludgeoning of the share price. However, short term pain will have a meaningful impact on the books as we exit the trough in steel demand.
Regarding iron ore, securing long term supply at relatively cheap total input costs (measured from trough to trough in the steel demand cycle) is what the purchase of dirt is all about, right? Doesn't it seem like a worthy investment in that sense? It might seem expensive in the short term...but mgmt then turned around and sold off a portion of the whole for a sum greater than the return they would have earned if they had held onto the full stake, and applied those "winnnings" to debt reduction today, while steel prices are still in the crapper.
Its definitely not all roses, but my opinion is that MT emerges from this cycle capturing a larger portion of the global steel market in a few short years.
Cheers, Moses
PS. Long MT, in a big way!