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moseslarsen

moseslarsen
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  • Peabody Energy Q2 Results: It's Still Alive [View article]
    I made 14+% today in BTU!!! Killin it! Bahahahahah! Regards, Moses
    Jul 28, 2015. 10:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Union Pacific Improves Public Safety Rate [View article]
    Less train sets moving = less at grade crossings/year. Ah, the joy of stats! Long UNP. Cheers, Moses
    Jul 28, 2015. 03:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peabody Energy downgraded at Fitch as no boost seen for met coal prices [View news story]
    ^Same.
    Jul 28, 2015. 10:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peabody Energy downgraded at Fitch as no boost seen for met coal prices [View news story]
    Yeah, and we are fresh out of 'Patriots', eh?!
    Jul 27, 2015. 09:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peabody Energy downgraded at Fitch as no boost seen for met coal prices [View news story]
    T, curious to see if anyone bites (buyout)...at a buck a share, BTU seems ripe for the picking, regardless of the present negative coal outlook. It seems like there would be value in plant and property far exceeding $1 per.

    I believe the knife is clattering on the floor...am waiting to buy some more of the common, because I am crazy like that and need to average down a bit more. I am either going to forfeit a bunch of my hard earned money, or be able to tell my grandkids about a top ten value pick of my investing career.

    Cheers, Moses
    Jul 27, 2015. 06:08 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Union Pacific Employees Set Safety Records [View article]
    I am curious how the changing statistic of total employed individuals played into this "safety win". Regards, Moses
    Jul 27, 2015. 01:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Things Are Looking Up For Trinity Industries [View article]
    DJ, thank you for the write-up. Anchoring bias aside, you put your own and OPM where your mouth is...almost 30% of AUM in TRN?! Hoowee! Hopefully this one is good for both of us! Regards, Moses
    Jul 27, 2015. 01:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trinity Industries: Why Guardrail Risk Remains [View article]
    Hi Armino, welcome aboard! While awaiting DAG's response, I propose you consider a couple things, which you may have already have done...
    1. What led you to invest in TRN in the first place?
    2. Has something changed with the company to cause you to second guess your move?
    3. Were you aware of the overhang of impending litigation when you first put your money to work in this name? If so, what do YOU think of the prospects of this company in five years or so, based on the latest company information?
    4. Big picture: Have you followed the trends in the transports, more specifically rail loadings and the changing regulatory environment around specific types of rolling stock?
    5. Have you looked at the other profit centers that TRN has, balanced against its rail focus?
    6. Are you OK with up to 25% of your portfolio being in one equity for five years?

    All I can offer is that we are probably late mid-cycle in the transports sector, which may mean we are looking at an overall decline in that arena (read: rail)over the next few years (maybe your entire 5 yr horizon). Almost every commodity is in significant flux right now, with a general domestic downtrend in supply occurring in many of the standard bulky/hard to ship items (coal, gas, crude) that fill rail cars and make for profitable trains.

    These are just a couple thoughts that came to mind from my few years of doing this...good luck in your investing, and for both our sakes, I hope TRN tears it up (in a good way). Just so you know I'm not kidding about the above comments...I am long UNP, NOV, DNOW, ESV, BTU, and uranium. (BTU beat me up and ran away with my swimtrunks...so I am standing in a chilly ocean with very cold privates re coal.)

    Long TRN...Regards, Moses
    Jul 27, 2015. 11:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy Sector Outlook - Part III [View article]
    Patience...an elusive friend. A friend who I push away too often.
    Jul 22, 2015. 01:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BHP Billiton Is Making More Write-Downs, Glad We're Not Investors [View article]
    lbkbill, Yup. Its 'pile on' season. Everything (commodity related) is going to hell. Get out of every boring stodgy stock cause they are all going BK. No one will ever use anything that comes out of the ground again. Tech is the answer! <for those unaccustomed, that was sarcasm...>

    Hopefully all the yahoos get out and leave the rest for us. Again, I am not and will not be winning any prizes for portfolio performance for last year or this year, or even potentially part of '16. But I am sure betting that cyclicality remains cyclical. Regards, Moses
    Jul 22, 2015. 01:00 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BHP Billiton Is Making More Write-Downs, Glad We're Not Investors [View article]
    Nasir, I thought the same thing about someone swooping in and snapping up BTU...seems super ridiculously cheap at this juncture; and for once, BBL/BHP mgmt. could look smart in a transaction...Regards, Moses
    Jul 22, 2015. 10:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BHP Billiton Is Making More Write-Downs, Glad We're Not Investors [View article]
    k2...its a reasonable strategy. DCA'ing into this giant may make you look pretty smart a few years out. Not only will you look smart, your wallet will be fatter. I will be accumulating throughout. I am already heavily concentrated in beat down names, so why stop now?! Cheers, Moses
    Jul 22, 2015. 10:54 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Current Oil Market Thus Far [View article]
    its time in the market, not timing the market, koayyijie. I hope to have new money available then (recession) also. Its not like these companies are running 50 PEs or something...Regards, Moses
    Jul 21, 2015. 10:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy Sector Outlook - Part III [View article]
    ..."(and use your imagination)"...cracked me up! Answer: fan themselves??? Thanks for a good article. Regards, Moses
    Jul 21, 2015. 06:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Underwater Drillers - Best Investment Outlook [View article]
    Which company offers the best management team, overall? Sorry if I missed that in my quick read. Long ESV, albeit painfully. Cheers, Moses
    Jul 21, 2015. 06:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
515 Comments
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