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moseslarsen

moseslarsen
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  • Arch Coal Is A Long-Term Buy [View article]
    Bought more ACI today. Get comfortable with your holdings, shut off your daily notifications on coal names, and watch as prices start to run up...check back in in say, late October...and watch your profits tick up. Cheers, Moses
    Jul 9, 2013. 03:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Peabody Energy: Commodity Contrarian Investing 101 [View article]
    Still adding to BTU and ACI. ACI's turn today. Regards, Moses
    Jul 9, 2013. 03:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Walter Energy: Investors To Remain On The Sidelines [View article]
    I bought more ACI today. Regards, Moses
    Jul 9, 2013. 03:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Coming Rebound In Commodities, Coal, And Coal Stocks [View article]
    Bob,

    Enthusiasm for a value play of this magnitude is to be expected. It is the investors patience that will tell the tale of profit or woe. We are literally being dragged along the bottom of this coal cycle for myriad reasons, but the simple fact is if you can sweat out the short term, it is plausible we holders of these names will see a nice payday.

    Your statements seem to support the idea that 'capitulation' is near in the coal sector. Those thoughts make me want to buy more...but I personally am trying not to fall too deeply into confirmation bias at this juncture.


    Regards, Moses

    Long ACI and BTU
    Jul 2, 2013. 12:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Coming Rebound In Commodities, Coal, And Coal Stocks [View article]
    Excellent article. Wish I had more cashon hand to throw at coal (and steel) names. Long BTU and ACI...might even begin to nibble at ANR.

    Regards, Moses
    Jul 1, 2013. 06:35 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude Oil And Gasoline Inventories Both Rise More Than Expected [View article]
    Ah...the unknown unknowns again.
    Jun 27, 2013. 01:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Depressed Valuations For Alpha Natural Resources Offers An Attractive Opportunity [View article]
    Man, you guys are gonna make me add ANR to my existing ACI and BTU positions! I need to reconsider my allocation to this sector, based on these ridiculous valuations. Ridiculously good, that it.

    I feel like I am swimming in seaweed investing in the coal sector right now...but that probably means that I will enjoy some of the best returns I have ever seen in a couple years if I stick with it.

    PATIENCE...

    I am trying to channel Bruce Berkowitz and what he did with financials...Regards, Moses
    Jun 27, 2013. 11:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Coal Supercycle Back? [View article]
    Thanks for the updates Stone Fox Capital, it has been a tough couple days owning coal names. I will admit to a bout of doubt yesterday about my plans to continue building postions in ACI and BTU. I do believe we are stuck at the bottom of the cycle. The next two quarters should reveal the uptick that we are seeking. On your word, I may have to research ANR as a small add. Cheers, Moses
    Jun 27, 2013. 11:48 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commodities Today: The Good, The Bad, And The Truly Ugly [View article]
    Matthew, thanks for always giving us good fodder to work from...lets see what today brings. Moses
    Jun 26, 2013. 10:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commodities Today: The Good, The Bad, And The Truly Ugly [View article]
    All - What would truly move markets (including coal) is gas edging above $4/gal on its way to $4.25. All sorts of things would change...first and foremost, public perception of the cost of gas on a per household level would trigger multiple responses: public transit ridership skyrockets, housing and employment location choices would be redefined (i.e smaller radii as acceptable travelsheds to and from home/work), staycations get closer, purchases of alternatively fueled cars would increase measurably, just to name a few.

    With respect to the last example, the demand for electric cars in particular would lead to increasing electric usage and hence, the need for more baseload. NG would capture some market share, but coal would be there, as boring as ever...Moses
    Jun 25, 2013. 04:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commodities Today: The Good, The Bad, And The Truly Ugly [View article]
    papayamon, I file the 'death of commodities' right next to the 'death of equities' proclaimed by another well known analyst from a well known house. Sooner than you think, we will read that Goldman saw an early glimpse of 'a phoenix rising from the ashes of the commodities pile' and took advantage by getting in while the getting was good. Hang on brother.

    If not, I am certainly screwed along with you. I am long things that would make financial advisors either 1) soil themselves, or 2) rejoice in my bold stock picking. Regards, Moses
    Jun 25, 2013. 10:58 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peabody Energy Is Awaiting The Coal Market Rebound [View article]
    "Look at all these rumors, surrounding me every day. I need some time, some time to get away..." Obscure lyric from the Timex Social Club, a bad 80s band.

    Chuckles, I believe we are in the trough of the coal cycle...the next peak may not achieve the same 'loft' compared to the last due to additional regulation and pressures from environmental groups, etc. but baseload production of energy/electric will still require coal as a fuel. Steel production will also rise again, taking our coal shares with it. China will have economic bumps just like every other emerging country. I say 'emerging' cause that is just what they are doing on a large scale, emerging from inland agrarian societies...

    I said coal isn't going anywhere...if times stay rough for the industry, the coal will simply stay in the ground a bit longer, which gets me off on a technicality. (just kidding) As a life long 'enviro', I have been through my bouts of doubt about all fuel sources - oil, coal, nuclear, solar...etc. Coal remains a cheap form of fossil fuel and ever advancing technology will help curb the emission concerns going forward. Tech won't solve these problems entirely, as we still have to obey a few pesky physical laws...gravity, consevation of matter, etc.

    My problem is most people do not do enough due diligence when railing against a certain fuel source...I guess that makes me an informed enviro, if nothing else.

    In closing Chuckles, if you feel strongly about rumors cast about on the interweb, TV news, and blog spots, I would suggest a heartfelt review of your holdings to make sure they still align with your investment strategy. Re coal: It is usually darkest before the dawn...sorry to get all cliche-y on you, but the metrics seem to indicate that coal investments will make us some money in the next couple years. That is why I am building two small positions in ACI and BTU. This same logic applies to my outsized postion in MT...global steel. The rumors and news absolutely suck right now for both sectors. Thats why I am buying.

    If you are losing sleep over your exposure, I would suggest investigating healthcare names, big pharma, and the staples. You will make money more slowly, but you will still make good money.

    Happy hunting. Moses
    Jun 25, 2013. 10:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peabody Energy Is Awaiting The Coal Market Rebound [View article]
    Par for the course. Thanks for the update.
    Jun 25, 2013. 12:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peabody Energy Is Awaiting The Coal Market Rebound [View article]
    T, Chuckles does have a point, but only to a point. Our global economy is a fickle thing and the American influence exerted on market movements is beginning to ebb/decline as you noted.

    Closer to home, Obamms has been taking it on the chin lately...li'l oopsies like defense contractors spillin the beans on snooping my phone calls and facebook posts, immigration, climate concerns, education - he has a fight going on multiple fronts and his credibility is, well...open for debate. Did I mention gun control and gay marriage? Its a wonder how the guy sleeps at all.

    However, as this pertains to coal investing and the effects of pollution control on that investment, I believe pollution control may get a near term bump. Coal, especially as a baseload fuel and an industrial input, is not going anywhere. Hoepfully you can offer support to that statement from your 'boots on the ground' research, as it's your livelihood.

    Of course, if you're judging short term success by my latest move (ie buying more BTU), I suck looking at today's price action! But you know I didn't buy expecting to be rewarded this week or next month.

    How's the Aussie economy hanging in there, regarding all the China talk?

    Moses
    Jun 24, 2013. 12:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Peabody Energy Is Awaiting The Coal Market Rebound [View article]
    T, "...the WH has very little relevance other than entertainment value."

    This made me laugh! Sadly, the above statement is pretty solid. What you can't afford to do is underestimate how many people love love LOVE entertainment! Regards, Moses
    Jun 24, 2013. 11:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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