Seeking Alpha

moseslarsen

moseslarsen
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View moseslarsen's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Buy Caterpillar Now, At The Bottom Of The Business Cycle [View article]
    Norman, thank you for the thoughtful response. I think fuel input costs will continue to weigh more heavily on trucking especially head-to-head with rail...you know that I love the rails long term! I may have to buy into CAT again to bring my cost basis down...and that wont hurt my feelings one bit! I have been trading CAT more than expected, probably as a result of its volatility. I got back in to quickly is all...

    I believe that the 'snapback' on stock valuations across multiple sectors will be significant when the 'coal drag' loosens. Pollution control, rails, steel and related commodities, and maybe even some indirectly related sectors will relax their way higher after being artificially depressed by the present coal picture.

    I enjoy the conversation as always, Mr. Tweed. Long MT EXC CSX NSC FTEK. Mostly long CAT.

    Cheers, Moses
    Oct 1 06:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Caterpillar Now, At The Bottom Of The Business Cycle [View article]
    Hey Grox, you may already do this, but for a quick "risk" reference - check the beta rating for each of your favorite investing ideas on the stock's Value Line investment sheet (check your local library)...or try researching beta levels online at your favorite research stop. I view V-line info as a primary "go-to" investment 'check & balance' before pulling the trigger. Along with Value Line, I also use Morningstar data to formulate my attack. Not to mention what I have learned through the years reading the likes of Mr. Tweed and others...Cheers, Moses
    Oct 1 06:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Caterpillar Now, At The Bottom Of The Business Cycle [View article]
    Norman, thanks for the article (as usual). The value perspective you bring is a thought platform we share...I bought into CSX and NSC on NSC's reduced 2015 guidance news. How could I resist buying a 10% downside belly flop based on news three years from now?! I also stuck to my plan on reentering CAT under $90 (in at 88), even though I could have waited a couple days and picked it up a bit cheaper. Controlling/removing emotion is a key to success in this gig.

    As you have familial ties, what are your <macro> thoughts on the transportation sector? I tried to spur some conversation with other SA authors on the point and didn't get much in the way of feedback. Regards, Moses
    Oct 1 02:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Great Dividend Growth Stocks Too Cheap To Ignore [View article]
    Thanks DivsFTLH, bought back into CSX, NSC, CAT this week. Am now out of bullets and INTC will have to wait. Purchase price on INTC for me is 21-21.5. That was my next add, but I am all in. Cheers, Moses
    Sep 27 12:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bearish Divergence: Has Dow Theory Failed? [View article]
    Thanks for the follow up, Q. Interesting subject...

    Agree w P Solerno that we are not early cycle...BUT, I bought back into NSC today (small position) to augment my larger CSX position. The brunt of the ugly is baked in now. Coupled with capital improvements at all tier I RRs, liquid fuel costs accompanied by increasingly strict air quality regulations will drive up the cost of over-the-road trucking. Efficiency gains will prevail at the RRs long term. Won't it be interesting when coal numbers 'magically' start improving? It won't be too long now and some of the pressure across coal, RRs, steel, pollution control, and related sectors will ease. Regards, Moses
    Sep 25 01:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Norfolk Southern Will Bounce Back Soon [View article]
    Grox, cool picture - where is that picture taken, the Colorado Rockies? Its too small for me to guess exactly what range...

    I am not defending SA authors, but whether EFS owns NSC shares or not -- 'they report and we decide.' Do you use a SA author's ownership of a stock as a factor when making your own investment decisions? Just curious as I would love to hear reasons either way.

    I owned NSC coming out of the $30s and made some nice money. NSC mgmt is pretty spectacular. Their mission is clear...however, I have been holding CSX more recently as I think 1) the transportation sector as a whole is cooling a bit and 2) CSX maintains a slight investment edge as mgmt is trying to agressively grow margins. I like the captial improvements CSX is making -especially to their tunnels - to allow double stacked container shipping. This will lend to improving margins as well. As liquid fuels rise in price, truckers get squeezed a bit more than railroads.

    Generally, I cant find a more boring sector to secure a reasonable dividend and a touch of capital appreciation; that's why I love owning RRs! In my mind, CSX has a tad more risk associated with it compard to NSC, but I don't think holding either would be a detriment to a reasonably diversified portfolio.

    EFS: do you think the transportation sector as a whole is cooling off? Thanks.

    Cheers, Moses
    Sep 24 03:28 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Railroads Have Priced In The Bad News [View article]
    donmlp, how will BNSF make NSC and CSX "non-competitive" considering the the geographic operating areas of each of the tier 1 railroads? Regards, Moses
    Sep 24 11:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Railroads Have Priced In The Bad News [View article]
    rhiannion, in the past, I have read in NSC's quarterly and annual reports that they have developed/experimented with alternative power locomotives. And CSX continues to push the sustainable/green envelope as well. With the focus on operating margin, the RRs do all they can to squeeze every last bit of benefit from each fuel dollar.

    Liquid fossil fuels still offer the most efficient power return per dollar invested in today's locomotive world, but with continued R&D by all the tier 1 RRs, we are bound to hear that new battery technology is making headway.

    "Rails to trails" was a big urban planning movement over the last several decades, however that is starting to change as more American cities contemplate adding passenger transit back into the mix to curb sprawl, congestion and obesity...If you can't tell, I love the railroads, too.

    Bought back into CSX yesterday and will watch NSC. Move that freight! Cheers, Moses
    Sep 21 12:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Time To Buy Teva? [View article]
    Mike, buying sexy hurts. I buy railroads and other boring junk. Suits me just fine. For instance, coal and steel aren't sexy...Long MT CSX TEVA EXC, you get the point. Regards, Moses
    Sep 20 03:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Time To Buy Teva? [View article]
    Already in...and agree that the price is right @ or below 40. Would love to see some momentum build, but geopolitical risk may continue to weigh...patience is required in this name. Cheers, Moses
    Sep 20 03:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Railroads Have Priced In The Bad News [View article]
    Q, Big fan of NSC and CSX...great managements with slightly different approaches. CSX has been fighting to get leaner and meaner and that will show over the next several quarters relative to the other big boys. I booked gains in CSX by selling just before the Bernanke show as I expected the market to react less euphorically...Am happy I pulled the sell trigger. Will be buying back into CSX as I believe it holds a slight edge due to the tunnel work that has been completed, which will allow double stacking of containers, thereby increasing total haulage per train. Margin improvement baby. My question: as a whole, is the transportation sector beginning to ease a bit? Cheers, Moses
    Sep 20 02:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There's No Longer A Bernanke Put [View article]
    I still believe that a demographic based deflation is what Uncle Ben is trying to fight in the US - to no avail. This is about the speed of money...it is slowing down and there is nothing that can be done to speed it up enough to make it count. Baby boomers will not come out of their downturn-induced stupor to spend the amount required to right this ship, as they will be trying to protect their own deflating assets. That is why I am setting up shop in the deflation camp. Regards, Moses
    Sep 14 05:35 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There's No Longer A Bernanke Put [View article]
    Paulo, deflation is our future. Today I start building a deflation-fighting portfolio.
    Sep 14 11:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • There's No Longer A Bernanke Put [View article]
    Paulo, sadly enough that was an excellent piece! It is hard to feel goo dabout your investing decisions in a normal environment, not to mention where we sit right now. I sold my high beta names (CAT, MT, JPM) during the day yesterday (locking in nice gains) but I was a bit early as I watch the euphoria this morning. I expected a very different market response. So much for that idea.

    Win some, lose some...but still booking gains, Moses
    Sep 14 11:04 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Liquid Industrial Stocks With Growth On The Horizon [View article]
    FTEK - The company's business model, foreign market positioning, corporate management, intelligent insider buying, order backlog, and the macro regulatory environment all support a 'coiling the spring' effect for this stock. I believe patience will be rewarded in this name...I did not get out at $10+ a share, which would have netted me a sizable gain because I believe this is at least a $12 stock. The macro coal picture has - and is still - stunning this micro cap's market cap growth.

    Disclosure: I have been long FTEK since 2009. It may seem like 'dead money' to some, until it comes roaring back to life...and I sell a three or more bagger.

    Regards, Moses
    Aug 31 03:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
347 Comments
325 Likes