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moseslarsen

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  • National Oilwell Varco: Buy For Increasing Revenue With Strong Earnings [View article]
    Nick, raydo..., fear, got in at 66. Will buy more if it shimmys down below that price. Long with you all...enjoy the profits of a great pick, gentlemen. Regards, Moses
    Feb 8, 2013. 06:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Teva Pharmaceuticals: Beaten, Bludgeoned And Brutalized - It's A Buy [View article]
    Dothemath....hopefully Levin is that catalyst. Regards, Moses
    Feb 3, 2013. 01:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Teva Pharmaceuticals: Beaten, Bludgeoned And Brutalized - It's A Buy [View article]
    Craig, I did all my homework on TEVA a couple years ago also...I am glad you got to talk with them (mgmt)...very 'Philip Fisher' of you...kudos. I am curious to see what Mr. Levin can do with this company.

    Generally, I think the generics thesis is a good one, with demographics and health care regulations supporting. Family scale economics and the Wal-Martization of most goods also favors generics in a round-about way. The problem comes with increased competiton...in 2009, one of the reasons I bought NVS was for its generics unit (Sandoz is a success), plus the acquisition of Alcon...along with inherent diversity of being a huge pharma.

    TEVA, which is NOT a truly diversified big pharma company, has to be extremely focused over the next year or two to achieve their agressive goals...hopefully we will reap the rewards of that focus. Cheers, Moses
    Jan 31, 2013. 04:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Caterpillar Is Worth Owning [View article]
    Closed out my postion recently. Will wait to get back in...regards, Moses
    Jan 31, 2013. 01:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Teva Pharmaceuticals: Beaten, Bludgeoned And Brutalized - It's A Buy [View article]
    Craig, I have been circling TEVA like a vulture for months...I have made money in it before, and will do so again. Just opened a new longish position today. Thanks for the nudge. Regards, Moses
    Jan 31, 2013. 01:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple's Plunge Makes Sense [View article]
    Alan, thanks for your work as usual. You inform us well.

    You (Alan) said, "AAPL suffers from being very large and likely over-owned too."

    Then, Samir Patel finished his lengthy reply with "I think it's interesting that many retail investors don't realize how overweight Apple they are. It's a huge component of the indices, along with a lot of mutual funds, so if you own index funds + mutual funds + individual shares, your Apple exposure might be a lot higher than you think."(ps. Samir must be an editor...they are not usually allowed to elaborate - they are stuck cutting content ;) just playing, Samir)

    Samir and Alan - Precisely why I have personally chosen NOT to own AAPL at all in my equities portfolio...(until a few days from now when I might all of a sudden be a buyer!)

    In a couple days/weeks <hopefully>, I can begin cleaning up the mess portfolio managers made in my 401, 457, etc by buying a little AAPL myself. I still won't use their products - AAPL's that is...unfortunately I am stuck with my 401 and 457 providers products.

    I will buy on the news and sell into strength if it seems a good fit. Question is, what do the mutual fund big boys with significant exposure to AAPL do now...do they bulk up or continue to sell off?

    Thanks again, Moses
    Jan 24, 2013. 04:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Take Profits On The Transports [View article]
    jaych79, I think you are being a prudent investor. Your thinking mirrors mine, with one small deviation...I think coal shipments will recover, helping that particular portion of their book of transported products...all in all, I am with you. Cheers, Moses
    Jan 24, 2013. 12:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Take Profits On The Transports [View article]
    JF, I will be hanging onto my CSX and NSC, especially since they reported earnings recently...I expect near term upside for both. Regards, Moses
    Jan 24, 2013. 10:40 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Caterpillar About To Come Out Of Its Cocoon? [View article]
    redarrow5150, felt similar to you and took profits (CAT) late last week. Will reopen the position after the stock pulls back a bit, as you suggested. I am ok getting back in north of $82. Regards, Moses
    Jan 23, 2013. 12:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time For Rail Consolidation [View article]
    Hey Dana, I have been a rail fan since I was a kid and your thoughts are intriguing. Don't know if it would come to pass, but interesting nonetheless.

    This go round (2012), I bought some of each...CSX as a play on their continually improving margins and NSC as the handcuff-big brother in the eastern rail family...In my mind, mr market got a little pessimistic when the eastern rails got trounced last year due to depressed coal margins. Both 'roads are increasing tunnel heights where necessary to accomodate double-stacked container shipping, increasing operating margins while reducing fuel costs, which are already pretty darn good versus other means of transport.

    My 1.5 cents (taxes took the other half penny): Hang on to or build your CSX position because we could end up with a larger overall gain in 24-36 mos versus NSC, after coal jitters have been squeezed out of the system and oil & gas have resumed a more regular uptick in price per gallon...NG will take a while before it is a statistically worthwhile comparable alternative fuel.

    During that time, our nation's road infrastructure will continue to degrade. If we are dreaming about what-ifs, we could end up with a VMT (vehicle miles travelled) tax on ALL road users if we don't square away this cliff/non-cliff/debt ceiling/social security/taxation mess...If we are hit with a VMT tax, then -all of a sudden- all that capex spending by the railroads would look like pure genius.

    Regards, Moses
    Jan 16, 2013. 03:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Early notes from the BAML fund manager survey shows respondents at their most bullish in 2 years and the most overweight banks since 2007. Allocations to eurozone equities are the highest in 5 years. The BAML read was notable for much of 2012 for showing extreme bearishness among fund managers, but had turned optimistic at the end of the year. [View news story]
    I am 36% in cash and headed further that direction...
    Jan 15, 2013. 11:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks Are Overbought: It's Time To Raise Cash And Wait For A Pullback [View article]
    TiM, sold my CAT position at 95.45 as I felt similar...a bit extended, so went to cash after a nice profit. We could get a bit of near term upside if a couple earnings beats are recorded early, but then we are bound to settle a bit. I am 36% in cash and that is new for me...I like having my money working for me all the time, but am trying to learn patience and the benefit of having some dry powder. I am a fundamentals guy, but have been doing reading in technical analysis and market timing. Can't say as I am a strong believer in either yet, (especially timing) but technical charts seemingly have a place in my repertoire, if intelligently applied as an augmentation to a fundamentals approach. Regards, Moses
    Jan 13, 2013. 04:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stryker Corporation Dividend Stock Analysis [View article]
    Garthilk, I agree with your comment. I bought SYK in 2009 and got out after pocketing a pretty nice profit. I loved the fundamentals then, especially the little to no debt SYK carries. I hate making bold predictions out of hand, but in my estimation, SYK would only revisit the low 40s or lower if smacked with scandal during or after a major correction. Statistically you may be afforded that opportunity, but demographics combined with a sloth-like improving economic situation probably suggests continued stock price appreciation in the near term. Curiously enough, my buy price when I did all my homework was $45...I bought twice at that price point before pulling the rip cord. Someday I will get back in...Happy investing, Moses
    Jan 11, 2013. 04:44 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 S&P 500 Top-Dividend Yielders; Are They Bargain Stocks Now? [View article]
    Many indeed Russell, including EXC's senior management. For those who have not followed EXC, they are presently balancing funding the now artificially bloated dividend in the future against keeping their bond rating from falling to junk, and saving the bond rating is winning the day. Shareholders have the potential to capture that extremely high dividend one more time at best, and that may not come to pass...unless forward power prices and other metrics, like pending rate cases, all proceed favorably for the company in the first part of 2013. I remain long EXC.
    Jan 11, 2013. 03:22 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • National Oilwell Varco (NOV -2.8%) is downgraded to Sector Perform with an $80 price target, lowered from $88, by RBC Capital, which says NOV's share price is heavily tied to rig equipment orders. The firm believes a near-to-intermediate term lull in orders may begin in 2013 as the industry digests the influx of equipment ordered in recent quarters. [View news story]
    Momintn, you don't provide a bio, so my apologies if I am recommending things you already practice (I dont like preachin to the choir). Take in all the news, but do your own homework on figuring out the worth (intrinsic value) of the stock, especially if you are taking a position in the name. Then, YOU can determine when you feel comfortable buying and selling, regardless of what the yahoos profess...this yahoo opened a long(ish) position in NOV just recently and frankly, I was tickled to get in at a reasonable price point. Happy hunting...regards, Moses
    Jan 8, 2013. 11:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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