It's a rough day for coal stocks, as BMO cuts Peabody Energy (BTU -1.3%) and Walter Energy (WLT -1%), believing both have relatively high debt levels and high stock valuations (also). Tudor Pickering downgrades James River (JRCC -7.5%), calling it a "more creative balance sheet restructuring option than coal market recovery play," and Deutsche Bank cuts its price target to $2.50. [View news story]
Bought ACI and BTU for the same reason...potential takeovers for sure, but selling way below book. Lets make some money. Moses
Thanks TakeFive, you are right about the relocation of the CML (consolidated main line) to the east. It will be many years before it happens, if ever. I am relatively current on this topic, as it is part of my job...thanks for the links. I know the guy who runs denverinfill.com and I just walked through Union Station this afternoon. Things are jumping in the Central Platte Valley! The train to DIA will also be operational in a couple years. Transit is reshaping Denver...cheers, Moses
2 Near-Term Uranium Producers In Wyoming [View article]
Itinerant, interesting article. Today, I did something I thought I would never do...I sold my EXC position - at a loss. I am still a huge fan of nuclear power, but troughing earnings and the slashed divvie caused me to finally pull the shoot. Now I need to make some money back and hated resources are looking really interesting to me...based on your research, how long before URZ is actually profitable? A couple quarters? A year? Just curious as to timing til cash flow positive. I would be taking a position, so any insight would be helpful.
@Peter Epstein - I think I am getting ready to dip my toe into the coal sector finally. I have been circling ACI and BTU for a while.
Much like the author, not trying to be a hero, just looking to make some money. Bought a small position under $460 and will watch like everyone else. I love my Droid and dont buy Apple products, but it was irresistable to me as a value play in my equity book...and still is. May buy again if it slips significantly (400-420). Regards, Moses
How To Intelligently Reload Your Dividend Portfolio [View article]
Re fees and such: I am with you - I don't make these moves unless I have thought through the potential costs/outcomes. In 2013-2014, my plan is to 'learn by doing' outside of fundamental/value investing which is what I believe I am at my core as an individual investor. With that said, these conversations are why SA has been so informative for me and many others.
With guys like Crosetti and Richjoy (only two of many on this site that offer good, hard won advice) giving me/us loving kicks in the ass from a distance when I am pondering a particular investing move, I feel I can grow not only from my own research but from their experience.
Thanks again for the interesting article. Cheers, Moses
National Oilwell Varco: Buy For Increasing Revenue With Strong Earnings [View article]
Nick, raydo..., fear, got in at 66. Will buy more if it shimmys down below that price. Long with you all...enjoy the profits of a great pick, gentlemen. Regards, Moses
Teva Pharmaceuticals: Beaten, Bludgeoned And Brutalized - It's A Buy [View article]
Craig, I did all my homework on TEVA a couple years ago also...I am glad you got to talk with them (mgmt)...very 'Philip Fisher' of you...kudos. I am curious to see what Mr. Levin can do with this company.
Generally, I think the generics thesis is a good one, with demographics and health care regulations supporting. Family scale economics and the Wal-Martization of most goods also favors generics in a round-about way. The problem comes with increased competiton...in 2009, one of the reasons I bought NVS was for its generics unit (Sandoz is a success), plus the acquisition of Alcon...along with inherent diversity of being a huge pharma.
TEVA, which is NOT a truly diversified big pharma company, has to be extremely focused over the next year or two to achieve their agressive goals...hopefully we will reap the rewards of that focus. Cheers, Moses
Teva Pharmaceuticals: Beaten, Bludgeoned And Brutalized - It's A Buy [View article]
Craig, I have been circling TEVA like a vulture for months...I have made money in it before, and will do so again. Just opened a new longish position today. Thanks for the nudge. Regards, Moses
Alan, thanks for your work as usual. You inform us well.
You (Alan) said, "AAPL suffers from being very large and likely over-owned too."
Then, Samir Patel finished his lengthy reply with "I think it's interesting that many retail investors don't realize how overweight Apple they are. It's a huge component of the indices, along with a lot of mutual funds, so if you own index funds + mutual funds + individual shares, your Apple exposure might be a lot higher than you think."(ps. Samir must be an editor...they are not usually allowed to elaborate - they are stuck cutting content ;) just playing, Samir)
Samir and Alan - Precisely why I have personally chosen NOT to own AAPL at all in my equities portfolio...(until a few days from now when I might all of a sudden be a buyer!)
In a couple days/weeks <hopefully>, I can begin cleaning up the mess portfolio managers made in my 401, 457, etc by buying a little AAPL myself. I still won't use their products - AAPL's that is...unfortunately I am stuck with my 401 and 457 providers products.
I will buy on the news and sell into strength if it seems a good fit. Question is, what do the mutual fund big boys with significant exposure to AAPL do now...do they bulk up or continue to sell off?
Time To Take Profits On The Transports [View article]
jaych79, I think you are being a prudent investor. Your thinking mirrors mine, with one small deviation...I think coal shipments will recover, helping that particular portion of their book of transported products...all in all, I am with you. Cheers, Moses
Hey Dana, I have been a rail fan since I was a kid and your thoughts are intriguing. Don't know if it would come to pass, but interesting nonetheless.
This go round (2012), I bought some of each...CSX as a play on their continually improving margins and NSC as the handcuff-big brother in the eastern rail family...In my mind, mr market got a little pessimistic when the eastern rails got trounced last year due to depressed coal margins. Both 'roads are increasing tunnel heights where necessary to accomodate double-stacked container shipping, increasing operating margins while reducing fuel costs, which are already pretty darn good versus other means of transport.
My 1.5 cents (taxes took the other half penny): Hang on to or build your CSX position because we could end up with a larger overall gain in 24-36 mos versus NSC, after coal jitters have been squeezed out of the system and oil & gas have resumed a more regular uptick in price per gallon...NG will take a while before it is a statistically worthwhile comparable alternative fuel.
During that time, our nation's road infrastructure will continue to degrade. If we are dreaming about what-ifs, we could end up with a VMT (vehicle miles travelled) tax on ALL road users if we don't square away this cliff/non-cliff/debt ceiling/social security/taxation mess...If we are hit with a VMT tax, then -all of a sudden- all that capex spending by the railroads would look like pure genius.
Early notes from the BAML fund manager survey shows respondents at their most bullish in 2 years and the most overweight banks since 2007. Allocations to eurozone equities are the highest in 5 years. The BAML read was notable for much of 2012 for showing extreme bearishness among fund managers, but had turned optimistic at the end of the year. [View news story]
I am 36% in cash and headed further that direction...
Stocks Are Overbought: It's Time To Raise Cash And Wait For A Pullback [View article]
TiM, sold my CAT position at 95.45 as I felt similar...a bit extended, so went to cash after a nice profit. We could get a bit of near term upside if a couple earnings beats are recorded early, but then we are bound to settle a bit. I am 36% in cash and that is new for me...I like having my money working for me all the time, but am trying to learn patience and the benefit of having some dry powder. I am a fundamentals guy, but have been doing reading in technical analysis and market timing. Can't say as I am a strong believer in either yet, (especially timing) but technical charts seemingly have a place in my repertoire, if intelligently applied as an augmentation to a fundamentals approach. Regards, Moses
It's a rough day for coal stocks, as BMO cuts Peabody Energy (BTU -1.3%) and Walter Energy (WLT -1%), believing both have relatively high debt levels and high stock valuations (also). Tudor Pickering downgrades James River (JRCC -7.5%), calling it a "more creative balance sheet restructuring option than coal market recovery play," and Deutsche Bank cuts its price target to $2.50. [View news story]
Coal Is Dead [View article]
CSX: Why It's Worth Riding The Price Uptrend [View article]
2 Near-Term Uranium Producers In Wyoming [View article]
@Peter Epstein - I think I am getting ready to dip my toe into the coal sector finally. I have been circling ACI and BTU for a while.
Thanks gentlemen, Moses
Apple Is Not Worth $460 [View article]
How To Intelligently Reload Your Dividend Portfolio [View article]
With guys like Crosetti and Richjoy (only two of many on this site that offer good, hard won advice) giving me/us loving kicks in the ass from a distance when I am pondering a particular investing move, I feel I can grow not only from my own research but from their experience.
Thanks again for the interesting article. Cheers, Moses
National Oilwell Varco: Buy For Increasing Revenue With Strong Earnings [View article]
National Oilwell Varco: Buy For Increasing Revenue With Strong Earnings [View article]
Teva Pharmaceuticals: Beaten, Bludgeoned And Brutalized - It's A Buy [View article]
Generally, I think the generics thesis is a good one, with demographics and health care regulations supporting. Family scale economics and the Wal-Martization of most goods also favors generics in a round-about way. The problem comes with increased competiton...in 2009, one of the reasons I bought NVS was for its generics unit (Sandoz is a success), plus the acquisition of Alcon...along with inherent diversity of being a huge pharma.
TEVA, which is NOT a truly diversified big pharma company, has to be extremely focused over the next year or two to achieve their agressive goals...hopefully we will reap the rewards of that focus. Cheers, Moses
Teva Pharmaceuticals: Beaten, Bludgeoned And Brutalized - It's A Buy [View article]
Why Apple's Plunge Makes Sense [View article]
You (Alan) said, "AAPL suffers from being very large and likely over-owned too."
Then, Samir Patel finished his lengthy reply with "I think it's interesting that many retail investors don't realize how overweight Apple they are. It's a huge component of the indices, along with a lot of mutual funds, so if you own index funds + mutual funds + individual shares, your Apple exposure might be a lot higher than you think."(ps. Samir must be an editor...they are not usually allowed to elaborate - they are stuck cutting content ;) just playing, Samir)
Samir and Alan - Precisely why I have personally chosen NOT to own AAPL at all in my equities portfolio...(until a few days from now when I might all of a sudden be a buyer!)
In a couple days/weeks <hopefully>, I can begin cleaning up the mess portfolio managers made in my 401, 457, etc by buying a little AAPL myself. I still won't use their products - AAPL's that is...unfortunately I am stuck with my 401 and 457 providers products.
I will buy on the news and sell into strength if it seems a good fit. Question is, what do the mutual fund big boys with significant exposure to AAPL do now...do they bulk up or continue to sell off?
Thanks again, Moses
Time To Take Profits On The Transports [View article]
Time For Rail Consolidation [View article]
This go round (2012), I bought some of each...CSX as a play on their continually improving margins and NSC as the handcuff-big brother in the eastern rail family...In my mind, mr market got a little pessimistic when the eastern rails got trounced last year due to depressed coal margins. Both 'roads are increasing tunnel heights where necessary to accomodate double-stacked container shipping, increasing operating margins while reducing fuel costs, which are already pretty darn good versus other means of transport.
My 1.5 cents (taxes took the other half penny): Hang on to or build your CSX position because we could end up with a larger overall gain in 24-36 mos versus NSC, after coal jitters have been squeezed out of the system and oil & gas have resumed a more regular uptick in price per gallon...NG will take a while before it is a statistically worthwhile comparable alternative fuel.
During that time, our nation's road infrastructure will continue to degrade. If we are dreaming about what-ifs, we could end up with a VMT (vehicle miles travelled) tax on ALL road users if we don't square away this cliff/non-cliff/debt ceiling/social security/taxation mess...If we are hit with a VMT tax, then -all of a sudden- all that capex spending by the railroads would look like pure genius.
Regards, Moses
Early notes from the BAML fund manager survey shows respondents at their most bullish in 2 years and the most overweight banks since 2007. Allocations to eurozone equities are the highest in 5 years. The BAML read was notable for much of 2012 for showing extreme bearishness among fund managers, but had turned optimistic at the end of the year. [View news story]
Stocks Are Overbought: It's Time To Raise Cash And Wait For A Pullback [View article]