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moseslarsen

moseslarsen
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  • Now Gold Too [View article]
    Hi Joe,


    'Stasis' by its very definition can't be retained in a man made environment, can it? Stasis would imply zero volativity... As shown throughout history, you can APPROACH balance/ equilibrium/ _____________ (<-- enter your favorite word here) but you can't truly achieve it.


    You (<-- substitue 'the Fed' or any 'fed' for that matter) are just adding grains of sand to a sand pile believing with all your might (<-- ps., that is faith, not science) that the pile will continue to hold, building upon itself to withering heights without breaking down...I think we know how that story ends.


    Oxymoron of the day = a 'natural market'.


    Maybe the shadow of 1937 is shading us from the sun of 2014's reality.


    Thanks for the read, Moses
    May 8 03:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buffett still a fan of IBM [View news story]
    Bought IBM in the high 170s. Sitting on a gain, reinvesting divs, and selling somewhere around $215-220. Let's revisit this in a year or so.

    P.S. The Oracle hasn't shed a share; coincidence? He may even add more...he may not get tech, but his bets pay off more often than not.

    Regards, Moses
    Apr 23 04:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Peabody Energy Looks For A Better Mix To Drive A Better Outcome [View article]
    Justin, thanks for the follow on comment. Isn't it interesting the odd logic applied by Chinese officials? I feel as if we share a lot of the same general thoughts re the coal market...and I have not bit on ETFs either. I bought FTEK with the same thought in mind; that it is not only coal fired power plants that add to their air quality concerns...I will continue to monitor my existing coal holdings. Coal represented 15% of my equity holdings until I pulled the rip cord on ACI the other day. Those who exhibit more patience than me with their coal holdings should be rewarded. Moses
    Apr 1 11:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Peabody Energy Looks For A Better Mix To Drive A Better Outcome [View article]
    As noted in China's latest five year plan, the Chinese government is embarking on a pretty significant pollution reduction campaign - in part due to negative press/pictures of Shanghai air quality on your TV/internet pages. Health of their citizens may also be a factor, but I cannot tell where that priority is slotted vs industrial capacity. Any thoughts as to how the Chinese government's stance affects the above noted industries within China?

    I dont know if I am correct in my musings, but part of my answer is also a significant portion of my portfolio: Long FTEK.

    Regards, Moses
    Apr 1 05:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Peabody Energy Looks For A Better Mix To Drive A Better Outcome [View article]
    Blue, interesting thought. How do we best monitor scrap volume upturn? MEA? Others? Does an increase in volume of domestic scrap matter in the big picture?

    Long MT, BTU; now trading ACI

    Cheers, Moses
    Apr 1 05:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Loan program for nuclear reactors is fizzling, uranium providers slide [View news story]
    The fed'ral gummint is here to help.
    Feb 19 04:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Energy Plays Bucking The Trend [View article]
    vireoman, we often seem to gravitate to the same names...with the distribution business spin off imminent for NOV (new company = NOW), I believe anywhere within a couple bucks of $70 is a reasonable price to pay for parent NOV if you plan to stay longish. I bought at 66 and again in the mid to high 70s...averaged in around where we sit now. I think we have real nice upside, especially once NOW is its own company. I speculate that NOV-NOW could end up looking a lot like COP-PSX, which I watched but did not participate in...regards, Moses

    Thanks to Bret for the update as usual.
    Feb 1 03:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Coal Industry Stays On Track To Make A Comeback [View article]
    The markets have been buoyant since 2009. I chose to take profits in 2013 and slide into cyclical names ahead of the crowds. Coal was one place I went dumpster diving. Steel, uranium and NG transport were the others. It (coal) is an interesting sector, but mostly because of the political sensitivity with Obams in office.

    Political thumpings aside, the pendulum of fuel switching to produce baseload electric (coal to NG back to coal) will again favor coal once NG prices stabilize above $4.50 to $5 per mmBTU. I bought and continue to own BTU and ACI based on cheap fundamentals - and because I felt I was being greedy while others were acting like scared-y cats. Coal supply/demand aberrations will normalize and profits (along with other investors) will join us again. My intent is to ride ACI up, using those profits to fatten the BTU position for the long haul, as they seem the safest of the coal names.

    I also own steel (MT) and a junior uranium minor, so my plan is to ride out the coming market correction/adjustment/... with cheap cyclical names that will only go one direction - up. I am seeking alpha by holding my hand on my beta. Regards, Moses

    PS. I used to teach HS kids about the effects man has had on the natural environment since the 1870s. The global warming/climate change debate will rage on, but change is evident if you know where to look.
    Jan 25 05:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Natural Gas Storage Glut Is Over [View article]
    Thanks. This makes my coal stocks look kind of exciting...looking forward to doubles or triples in ACI and BTU and this will only help. Regards, Moses
    Jan 15 03:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • National Oilwell Varco, Baker Hughes slide on RBC downgrades [View news story]
    RBC is just trying to pick up more shares in the low $70s. I bought in the mid 60s...maybe they (RBC and other naynays) should have bulked their position sooner. Chees, Moses
    Jan 8 06:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • I Remain Bullish On King Coal For 2014 [View article]
    Still with you on this one...long ACI and BTU. I am debating throwing more moolah at coal...or diworseificating into some other overlooked morsel.

    Regards, Moses
    Jan 7 02:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Stocks Set To Outperform Into January Earnings [View article]
    Sold AAPL for the above reasons (which are mostly noise if you are a true long term holder) and bought IBM when it was < $180...better shot at sleeping well even if AAPL performs well later in 2014 or 2015.

    I personally do not believe CAT's ship is coming in just yet. I bet I will be buying some between 80-82 sooner than later.

    Regards, Moses
    Jan 3 04:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Uranerz Energy: Commencing Production Just In Time For A Major Uranium Rebound [View article]
    KP, thank you for the update. Tough name to call...Picked up 1,000 shares as a speculative punch in my portfolio in 2013. Will hang around and watch what transpires with URZ for at least another year...looking forward to more positive news in the months to come.

    Regards, Moses
    Jan 3 11:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Could Go Right In 2014 [View article]
    Love the upside, baby. In 2013 I bought coal ACI and BTU, steel MT, ng transport GLNG, IBM and TEVA - planning to sit back and capture some serious alpha in 2014 and 15.

    Waiting on CAT...it has to be 80 or so for me to bite.

    Regards, Moses
    Jan 2 12:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Teva Pharmaceuticals: Copaxone's Upcoming Expiration Continues To Depress Its Current Valuation [View article]
    TEVA board is dysfunctional, at best. Levin needed time to complete what was underway. As a shareholder, this is unfortunate. Activity like this just sets us back again. In at $37. Will continue to hold. May even add some if TEVA drafts down significantly.

    Thank you for the analysis. Nice write up.

    Regards, Moses
    Oct 30 02:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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