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moseslarsen

moseslarsen
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  • 4 Large U.S. Corporations Set To Publish Earnings The Week Of July The 14th [View article]
    Go Big Blue! I bought in at $179ish, hoping we would see the benefits of the buybacks, cost cuts, Watson moves, etc. Prove me right, IBM!

    Regards, Moses
    Jul 13, 2014. 08:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Bought Arch Coal [View article]
    I am not quite ready to go long ACI again, just yet. As a matter of fact, LONG is a relative term in all these speculative holdings (coal as a sector). I have made money nimbly getting in and out of this name, but I would watch the p/b ratio. The company's worth is still coming down, regardless of cash on hand, removing much of the margin of safety, which is already pretty thin. Once supply dwindles enough, then ACI will move. This winter may help...

    I am currently long BTU because I loathe booking a loss...but I feel much stronger staying in BTU than I would sticking around in ACI. If we do get a little correction shortly, you may be able to pick up more shares of ACI sub $3, which is when I will join you folks.

    Regards, Moses
    Jul 13, 2014. 07:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Jeb Handwerger: Are You Ready For Doubles And Triples In Uranium Mining Stocks? [View article]
    I have built small positions in coal and uranium because no one wants to venture there today. These fuel suorces are not going away...re uranium, URZ and URG will make those of us who are brave some decent money. Of course my large positions are in ESV, NOV, MT, IBM, etc. Most are cyclicals, you bet. Bottoming will not last forever - its a battle of wills with your own patience and self control levels.

    Regards, Moses
    Jul 11, 2014. 11:30 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Diamonds In A Bed Of Coal: Asymmetric Risk/Reward In Peabody Energy After New EPA Plan [View article]
    *Powder River Basin

    Thanks for the article, Jason. I sold ACI at a 15+% gain a while back - timing my exit pretty well. I couldn't hold out any longer, but I still believe a nimble investor/trader can make money in ACI through 2016. That is when the debt will truly come home to roost. We will have to watch how NG and renewables do in the coming years in terms of gobbling coal's market share...

    Although I didn't score my expected double in ACI, I am intent on keeping my BTU position and growing it as new capital comes available...for all the reasons you allude to...if you are a value investor, plug your nose and buy these shares for a kingly profit down the road. But you will need patience and a set of stones.

    Once this administration exits stage left, we will probably benefit from a pretty nice relief rally, without factoring in improving fundamentals. By then, industry players will have adjusted (into BK or righted their ship) and we should be sailing along.

    Cheers, Moses
    Jun 13, 2014. 06:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exelon files to sell 50M shares, 20M equity units [View news story]
    Glad I sold.
    Jun 10, 2014. 08:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cramer's Lightning Round - I Believe In Hewlett-Packard (5/16/14) [View article]
    I got behind EXEL. Talk to me in a few months, Cramer.
    May 18, 2014. 04:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Now Gold Too [View article]
    *volatility
    May 8, 2014. 03:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Now Gold Too [View article]
    Hi Joe,


    'Stasis' by its very definition can't be retained in a man made environment, can it? Stasis would imply zero volativity... As shown throughout history, you can APPROACH balance/ equilibrium/ _____________ (<-- enter your favorite word here) but you can't truly achieve it.


    You (<-- substitue 'the Fed' or any 'fed' for that matter) are just adding grains of sand to a sand pile believing with all your might (<-- ps., that is faith, not science) that the pile will continue to hold, building upon itself to withering heights without breaking down...I think we know how that story ends.


    Oxymoron of the day = a 'natural market'.


    Maybe the shadow of 1937 is shading us from the sun of 2014's reality.


    Thanks for the read, Moses
    May 8, 2014. 03:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Do You Manage Your 'Low Conviction' Positions? [View article]
    Hi Bob, does "low conviction" equate to diversification for diversification's sake? 'Low conviction' is an intriguing concept, but I guess I personally only buy high conviction names...if low conviction equates to speculative, which I also sensed a little bit throughout the commetn string, I guess I make them really small percentages of my total book. Maybe I need to read the article again...my infant son had me up last night!


    Regards, Moses
    May 6, 2014. 01:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • National Oilwell Varco downgraded at Global Hunter after yesterday's drop [View news story]
    two words: over reaction. Long NOV.
    Apr 29, 2014. 10:55 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buffett still a fan of IBM [View news story]
    Bought IBM in the high 170s. Sitting on a gain, reinvesting divs, and selling somewhere around $215-220. Let's revisit this in a year or so.

    P.S. The Oracle hasn't shed a share; coincidence? He may even add more...he may not get tech, but his bets pay off more often than not.

    Regards, Moses
    Apr 23, 2014. 04:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Coca-Cola: Downside Is Less Than 5% [View article]
    I wouldn't buy KO here for my portfolio, but for my 4 month old's portfolio? You bet. KO is my boy's first stock...Regards, Moses
    Apr 17, 2014. 10:19 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commodities Today: Profiting From Volatility In These Names [View article]
    Oh yeah, holding to my long thesis on BTU, trading ACI.
    Apr 10, 2014. 10:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commodities Today: Profiting From Volatility In These Names [View article]
    My thought on the angry mail: 'Reactions' to investing in the coal sector today should be used as a measure of how people (who send hate mail) SHOULD define their personal risk tolerance. It's dumb to fire off negative nelly mail to you guys Matt, as you have been pretty consistent with the messaging re coal throughout.

    I second wigit's thoughts here...if you were thinking you were gonna kill it in coal in the short term, you were kidding yourself. Heck, I was a bit delusional and my expectations were pretty miniscule...

    I exited my ACI position recently (with a nice gain), but we may have another shot to get back in in the low $4ish range shortly.

    Regards, Moses
    Apr 10, 2014. 10:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • UBS cuts key coal names to Sell; cites oversupply, benchmark settlement [View news story]
    Sold my ACI a few days ago and booked aprofit, but changed my stance from 'long' to 'trading' that name. This ridiculous analyst back and forth is upsetting, but I am going to try and trade it. Will get back in around 4.25. Still long BTU.

    Cheers, Moses
    Apr 9, 2014. 11:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
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