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  • Philip Morris: The Yield Monster Grows [View article]
    nonsense. c igs have been called coffin nails since the 1920's. people have known but they don't always make decisions based on facts.
    Dec 15, 2014. 08:44 AM | 18 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Unprecedented Dividend Growth Buying Opportunity Materializes [View article]
    I own he and believe it's a solid long term holding. with that said low relative strength (RSI) is a sign of technical weakness. sure, if it's really oversold it can lead to a quick 5% pop but buying low RSI stocks is a great way to lose money.
    Dec 14, 2014. 09:26 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BP: Recent Price Drop Makes It Hard To Resist [View article]
    Some fairly simple math here, $31 Billion in cash flow at $100 oil, less $25 Billion in cap ex leaves $6 Billion. Just enough to pay the dividend. Now oil drops to $60. They can cut some expenses and cap ex but if they pay the current dividend they will need to run up their debt.
    Dec 13, 2014. 10:17 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Book Review: Berkshire Beyond Buffett [View article]
    Berkshire is a company that spins off $12-20 billion per year in cash. Unless they begin a dividend after Warren and Charlie pass on the future of the company rests on the aquisitions made from these funds. Within 10 years it will be a different company. If those who follow don't have Warren's skills it will become very average, very fast.
    Nov 29, 2014. 09:14 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Deere & Company Should Interest Long-Term Investors [View article]
    You are correct. Anyone who has followed DE knows you can predict it's stock direction (short term) by looking at corn prices. After seven fat years for farmers and high equipment purchases the fall off this year is almost certain to be much larger than analysts have factored in. If corn stays below $4, look for a much better entry point sometime in 2015. (If we get a pullback in the market, $60 seems possible)
    Aug 5, 2014. 09:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Berkshire Hathaway: The Last Bargain [View article]
    What you are saying, in short, is that all the float can be claimed as book value because it will never be paid out. Don't buy it and I doubt Warren would either. If you note the authors calculations above he counts ALL the investments as value to the shareholders and only subtracts holding company debt against it. Not a dime of liabilities for any future claims. Even if that's true, the value of this float will only be realized over decades as the possible liabilities are resolved. To assume today, in 2014, that the full value can be claimed in book value for shareholders is a hell of a stretch.
    Aug 3, 2014. 06:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Berkshire Hathaway: The Last Bargain [View article]
    Very well done. The only item I would have attempted to include in some fashion is the reserves necessary for the insurance companies. Only a portion of the investments can be considered available for shareholders. I know some will say that with a combined ratio under 100 that's not needed for BRK. However, there are future liabilities there.
    Jul 31, 2014. 09:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Reynolds American Should Pay For Lorillard [View article]
    Good call. Turned out to be very close. Came at $68.88 plus probably 3-4 dividends @.615 cents before it closes next year.
    Jul 15, 2014. 08:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Reynolds American Should Pay For Lorillard [View article]
    That would explain why LO would want to do the deal but not why Reynolds would. If menthol is gone nobody would buy out LO since over 75% of their sales are menthol. I think it's just a case of declining overall cig sales and the need to rationalize costs. (both production and SG&A) Plus, if you are Reynolds (and by extension BTI) a deal would make you a very, very strong #2 to Altria.
    Jul 5, 2014. 10:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Reynolds American Should Pay For Lorillard [View article]
    The increase in value comes from significant cost reductions. Low end is $460 million and others have it as high as $900 million. With volumes declining capacity in this business must come down and corporate as well as marketing expenses are excessive and a deal will slash those. You make great points about the risk to the deal and divestitures. Spiro3 above and others are discussing this as an all stock deal. Absolutely no chance. Stock and cash (funded by sort term debt and convertible debt or convertible preferred equity issued to BTI)That way the debt can as be paid down as Winston, Salem, ect are sold off. Also cost of capital is too high to issue all stock with interest rates this low.
    Jun 9, 2014. 08:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Reynolds American Should Pay For Lorillard [View article]
    Although LO has had better performance than other cig companies they are far too exposed to possible regulation given how much of their business is Newport. All other flavors besides menthol have already been banned. Take the money and run here and (if you want to maintain cig exposure) purchase a more diversified company.
    May 25, 2014. 11:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Reynolds American Should Pay For Lorillard [View article]
    You are right about the synergies driving the deal. However, RAI is exposed to a BAT takeover after July. And BAT already owns 42%. I think they want this deal to avoid that possible situation and are holding out the value of it to BAT to get their participation and to keep BAT from plan B which could be an outright buyout of RAI with all the lost jobs, stock options and various perks that go with senior level management positions. Hope the deal goes thru. Long PM, LO, and MO.
    May 25, 2014. 05:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tracking Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Portfolio - Q1 2014 Update [View article]
    Buffet has in the past indicated he doesn't want to own tobacco equity. I recall no mention about booze. He has however, been willing to buy tobacco bonds. (Not sure why)
    May 19, 2014. 08:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: Sorry Warren, But You're A Cheapskate [View article]
    I don't know, you seem to be making a buck or two off of BH articles on Seeking Alpha.
    May 15, 2014. 09:50 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buffett Or Icahn: Invest In Berkshire Hathaway Or Icahn Enterprises [View article]
    Comparing the two is comparing apples and oranges. At this stage, given it's size, most of BRBK's value comes from it's existing portfolio of companies. Given that Buffett rarely sells large positions (or whole companies) the value he can add yearly through capital allocation is falling. Ichan, and his LP is all about the transactions. When Ichan is gone, his partnership is worth it's liquidation value unless you believe his son can do what he's done. Lot's of potential downside in IEP when Ichan is gone. Possibly more upside in the short term.
    Mar 20, 2014. 10:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment