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browndlee

browndlee
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BP, BRK.A, BRK.B, C, DE, DELL, EROC, GE, IEP, LO, MO, NFG, PM, SU, SVU, WFC, XOM
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  • JPMorgan's Buyback Has Been Harmed By Perpetual Dilution [View article]
    well, old Jamie and the boys on the board have not exactly been diluting THEMSELVES out of the value, just the shareholders.
    Apr 9, 2015. 01:46 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon Mobil: Seeds Of The Next Oil Boom Are Being Sown As We Speak [View article]
    There annual report indicates they make very limited use of derivatives. I don't believe they hedge to any great extent. Unlike smaller E&P companies that need at least a some predictable cash flow to service debt, Exxon depends on the natural hedge associated with their diverse product mix as well as having refining ect. EPS will likely be $2-4 this year is prices remain around $50-60 in Brent.
    Mar 25, 2015. 10:45 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon Mobil: Seeds Of The Next Oil Boom Are Being Sown As We Speak [View article]
    The middle east is a dangerous place. No doubt about it. But then that's been the case for decades. Meanwhile, Iraq just reached their highest level of oil production and export since 1980. The Saudi's are pumping 10 million barrels a day. This oil is all these guys have. Without it they are back to herding goats. When was the last time you heard about a succesful attack on oil production that stopped production for more than a day or two? Think there's much security around those facilities.
    Mar 23, 2015. 09:52 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon Mobil: Seeds Of The Next Oil Boom Are Being Sown As We Speak [View article]
    Over 8% at times but that was when interest rates were higher and PE ratios lower. Don't think we'll see those yields with interest rates at these levels. The history of booms and busts in oil is well established though. High prices lead to heavy investment, new supply, and years of low prices. Both of Dan Yergin's books, "The Prize" and "The Quest" give a good perspective on how the cycles have played out in the past.
    Mar 21, 2015. 11:19 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon Mobil: Seeds Of The Next Oil Boom Are Being Sown As We Speak [View article]
    Not new territory. Just new territory in recent years. Look back to the 1980's. That's what we will be going thru the next few years. Persistently lower prices than we have saw over the last 10 years and high dividend levels with low yearly increases. CVX and XOM will do well IF your entry point is correct.
    Mar 20, 2015. 09:21 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon Mobil: Seeds Of The Next Oil Boom Are Being Sown As We Speak [View article]
    This is good advice. XOM is likely to earn $2-4 this year. That's just not on most peoples radar screen yet. When Q1 comes out the EPS cuts on Wall Street will be massive. XOM is a great company long term but better entry levels are coming and XOM is holding up relatively well because some money managers MUST own at least some position in oil.
    Mar 20, 2015. 09:18 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • With A Yield Over 5%, Take A Long Look At Philip Morris [View article]
    If you have room to safely take on debt at under 4% and use the money to buy back stock with a dividend above 4% (now 5%) that is a cash flow positive transaction. The key is the stability of the cash flow and the business long term.
    Mar 19, 2015. 11:51 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan: Trees Don't Grow To The Sky [View article]
    I'd be surprised if they don't hedge the currency risk. They are domestic with little or no revenue in Euros.
    Mar 12, 2015. 09:32 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan: 2 Big Issues Which May Hurt Future Growth [View article]
    Not exactly accurate. Other OPEC countries want the Saudi's to reduce production not themselves. Big difference.
    Mar 5, 2015. 10:30 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Some Thoughts On Berkshire Hathaway's New Shareholder Letter [View article]
    Overall a good article but I still think adding in the total value of investments without realizing that $84 billion of the $140 billion is supported by float gives an overly positive spin on their value. There is no perfect way to adjust for this since float has been cost free. Still, if I had a $140,000 brokerage account with a $84,000 margin debt against it I wouldn't believe the $140,000 represented my net worth.
    Mar 4, 2015. 09:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Did Warren Buffett Move The Goalposts In The Latest Letter? [View article]
    Agree. As a shareholder I have no problem when more information is added, I'll make my own judgement on how Berkshire and their management has done.
    Mar 1, 2015. 02:47 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deere & Co. Still A Disaster; Look Out Below [View article]
    I find the authors analysis of Allen's comments to be odd. Clearly Allen is discussing the companies results in a down cycle and discussing market position and overall company strength. The author seems to believe he's discussing the short term stock price. Very odd. Anyway, I do agree with Josh that Deere is grossly over priced at $90. I'll buy all I want at under $60 before this cycle is over.
    Feb 23, 2015. 12:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan: Based On Its Dividend Outlook, Kinder Morgan Could Have A Fair Value Of $61 [View article]
    My concern is your terminal growth rate of 5%, too high. Love the stock for right now though.
    Jan 27, 2015. 05:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chevron/Exxon Earnings Preview: 2015 Revisions Are Shocking [View article]
    Also, the bulk of the decline happened late in the quarter. Q4 averaged $73 for WTI. Q1 2015 looks to be more like $45-50. Things will get ugly for awhile. CVX and XOM are holding up fairly well because many money managers must own some oil and they are dumping pure E&P for large diversified players.
    Jan 26, 2015. 05:20 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold sector’s bad bets wiping out retained earnings, investor confidence [View news story]
    Agree. You can own them for trades if that's something you do, but they are poorly run as long term investments.
    Jan 14, 2015. 07:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
102 Comments
240 Likes