Seeking Alpha

Camper

Camper
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View Camper's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • SolarCity: The Most Egregiously Overvalued Stock In The Nasdaq? [View article]
    SCTY beats again today, on both sales and earnings.
    Mar 18 05:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity affirms 2014 guidance, details spending activity [View news story]
    Very nice. All the handwringing over the brief report delay seems to have been for nought.

    Incidentally, utilities are running scared. Their latest attempt to tax or prohibit non-utility solar lessors just went down in flames in Washington State.
    Mar 18 04:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity: So Far So Good [View article]
    The market share growth is the big item to me. Tripling share to 32% is remarkable, and it now establishes SCTY as the clear category leader--a best-of-breed brand in an incredibly hot sector. THAT is the best reason to buy this stock.

    As for whether the sector itself will remain hot, I refer interested readers to the new IPCC Assessment Report 5, and the undeniable fact that many Americans (especially politically conservative investment pros) are still in denial about it, presenting a brief opportunity to precede the herd.
    Feb 25 07:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gallup's Report On Boomer Reluctance To Retire: Confirmed By My Research [View article]
    Boomer here. My friends and siblings provide some insights: about two-thirds (mostly older) members of my circle are doing reasonably well, but a good third are struggling with repeated layoffs in their fifties, just when they need to save the most. Those strugglers tend to be towards the younger end of the baby boom, many are well educated and dedicated, but had the bad luck to be committed to withering fields such as ad agencies, travel agencies, real estate agencies, journalism, airlines, logging, etc.. Most of the latter have few or no retirement benefits, and no plans to retire before age 70, if then. Many have had to take large steps backwards to jobs at a fraction of their former pay. Meanwhile, most of their kids are having are very hard time breaking into career fields, and many are opting for the military just for secure employment.

    Frankly, I don't know what the answer is. This is a mess. But blaming the boomers definitely sidesteps the real issue.
    Jan 28 12:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity: The Most Egregiously Overvalued Stock In The Nasdaq? [View article]
    Gross margins remain in the 30-40% range. Sales are rising by more than 50% Y/Y, and leasing contracts by more than 70%. Hits to the net have come largely from acquisitions--good ones, in my view. So I'm unworried.

    More important, SCTY's leasing model solves the world's largest problem, overcoming the installation cost barrier for the most important energy technology of the next century. Now that all the world's major scientific academies have clearly called to leave 70-80% of the world's fossil fuels unburned, or risk insanely costly climate catastrophe, there is no question that US policy winds will be ever-more-strongly at SCTY's back.
    Jan 28 11:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity: The Most Egregiously Overvalued Stock In The Nasdaq? [View article]
    You're right: SCTY is expensive. However, I believe you're wrong to discount the value of its franchise. The company's moat is not in proprietary technology, as you suggest it should be; instead, it is in brand equity and locking up long-term contracts, both of which are going extremely well.

    The fact that so many of the world's top investment banks are heavily committed is no problem, either.

    And, yes, utilities COULD compete directly with SCTY, but they are being extremely slow in doing so. Utilities hate the distributed generation model, and most of them have simply wasted their time fighting solar in the courts, rather than leading the industry as they should. They will be crushed (in much of Europe, they already have been).
    Jan 27 01:21 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity's Acquisition Of Common Assets Is A Game Changer [View article]
    Good related article: http://nyti.ms/1aEB7Ag
    Jan 20 01:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity's Acquisition Of Common Assets Is A Game Changer [View article]
    SCTY's moat is made of two items: 20-year energy contracts, and preeminent consumer brand equity.
    Jan 20 01:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity: Pegged For Another Strong Year [View article]
    The difference between then and now: solar pv is now hitting grid parity, while the UN IPCC's 5th Assessment Report clarifies the need to act as nothing else has. These reports issue only every 6-7 years. The last stage of the report now being released says that continued carbon pollution will heap massive costs on our descendants, including food shortages and warfare, so the only solution is to immediately switch to renewable power...which we can finally do, thanks in part to solar improvements, if we can triple clean energy investments to about $1 trillion, which is only a little more than we now spend on fossil fuel subsidies.

    The future is definitely looking bright for solar. The bigger question is when to start shorting oil.
    Jan 17 01:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity: Pegged For Another Strong Year [View article]
    "Strong?" I'd say "unstoppable". Deutsche and Goldman have both just targeted SCTY at $90. With solar hitting grid parity and the UN climate chief calling to triple carbon-free energy investments to prevent climate catastrophe, this is just looking better and better.
    Jan 16 12:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity: Pegged For Another Strong Year [View article]
    Thanks for this. I'd add that most of us are looking at this through fundamentals lenses, which probably isn't smart. If ever there were a macro story, this is it. Solar efficiency is beginning to hit grid parity and will soon dive far below it. The UN climate chief calls for a tripling of carbon-free energy investment to keep global warming to within the 2-degree threshold of catastrophic risk. The Obama administration has made clean energy a priority. The solar leasing model overcomes the primary objection to residential solar: the installation cost. Early success in California, Hawaii and the Southwest has put SolarCity so far in front of the pack, no one else is close. And rooftop solar is a perfect way for Americans to continue indulging their love affair with autos, by reducing the effective cost of plug-in cars.

    Call me a believer, times ten. I've been in SCTY for a great ride, and I've only added to my position.
    Jan 15 04:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Climate Change And Your Portfolio [View article]
    Hey, there, Idaho. You don't believe science? I'm shocked--shocked!
    Dec 30 08:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Climate Change And Your Portfolio [View article]
    You forgot to mention that Al Gore is fat (or was, at least), therefore climate science must be bunk.
    Dec 30 07:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Climate Change And Your Portfolio [View article]
    Energy Mike, I agree with all that except about GE. Despite that company's green initiatives, it remains largely a (bailed out) bank and a military stock, as well as a second-rate appliance maker. It breaks little ground in renewables, and it doesn't invest in nuclear until it has a massive government budget in hand. It is bureaucracy defined. I could say similar about Siemens, its Euro counterpart.

    My money is on SCTY, SPWR, ENS, HON, JCI.
    Dec 30 07:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Climate Change And Your Portfolio [View article]
    Nice start, but this article could go on for volumes.

    For investors, the largest impact will certainly be the coming decline in fossil fuels companies. We have already seen coal stocks dive hard. US utilities are now going over the falls, following European counterparts such as E.on. Oils will be next, and gas after that.

    No matter your feelings towards climate activists, public policies are changing, regulations are rising, carbon taxes are spreading, and policies favoring non-carbon energy are growing. These are now creeping but will soon leap.

    My bets include solar (especially solar leasing), battery companies, smart grid companies, railroads, P&C insurance, robotics, software services, building controls and air conditioning.
    Dec 30 04:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
159 Comments
140 Likes