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  • Can The U.S. Rebalance The Global Oil Market?  [View article]
    "Rebalance?" You mean "get prices back up to where we made a killing," right?

    Won't happen. The entire world scientific community agrees that we must leave 75% of remaining reserves unburned, forever, to prevent insane risks to the globe's climate, peace and prosperity. Period.

    Who wants to invest in a product soon to be heavily taxed, and eventually outlawed? A product whose climate damage will probably kill millions of the Earth's poorest people in coming decades, possibly leading to global warfare that could kill billions?

    I'm as greedy as the next investor, but this is where I draw the line. I hope you can, too.
    Nov 4, 2015. 08:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity - Attaching A Valuation Is A Daunting Task, An Investment Is A Bet On Musk  [View article]
    Sorry, but one cannot judge a revolutionary new company like SCTY by the same metrics one might use to gauge mature value plays. Yes, buying SCTY is a bet on Musk, just as buying AMZN a decade ago was a bet on Bezos, or buying AAPL back in the day was a bet on Jobs.
    Jun 19, 2014. 05:27 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity Acquires Silevo: Is Elon Musk Green?  [View article]
    It's very easy to dismiss SCTY on present fundamentals, but one could have said the same about nearly every other successful new-industry stock launched in the past three decades. The SCTY story is predicated not on present technology and cost, but on likely technology and costs fifteen years from now. To me, the key in companies like these is the determination of their leaders to change the world, and to be effective in execution. That described Bezos, Jobs and Schultz early on, and I am now convinced that this describes Musk as well.
    Jun 19, 2014. 01:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity: The Most Egregiously Overvalued Stock In The Nasdaq?  [View article]
    SCTY beats again today, on both sales and earnings.
    Mar 18, 2014. 05:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity affirms 2014 guidance, details spending activity  [View news story]
    Very nice. All the handwringing over the brief report delay seems to have been for nought.

    Incidentally, utilities are running scared. Their latest attempt to tax or prohibit non-utility solar lessors just went down in flames in Washington State.
    Mar 18, 2014. 04:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity: So Far So Good  [View article]
    The market share growth is the big item to me. Tripling share to 32% is remarkable, and it now establishes SCTY as the clear category leader--a best-of-breed brand in an incredibly hot sector. THAT is the best reason to buy this stock.

    As for whether the sector itself will remain hot, I refer interested readers to the new IPCC Assessment Report 5, and the undeniable fact that many Americans (especially politically conservative investment pros) are still in denial about it, presenting a brief opportunity to precede the herd.
    Feb 25, 2014. 07:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gallup's Report On Boomer Reluctance To Retire: Confirmed By My Research  [View article]
    Boomer here. My friends and siblings provide some insights: about two-thirds (mostly older) members of my circle are doing reasonably well, but a good third are struggling with repeated layoffs in their fifties, just when they need to save the most. Those strugglers tend to be towards the younger end of the baby boom, many are well educated and dedicated, but had the bad luck to be committed to withering fields such as ad agencies, travel agencies, real estate agencies, journalism, airlines, logging, etc.. Most of the latter have few or no retirement benefits, and no plans to retire before age 70, if then. Many have had to take large steps backwards to jobs at a fraction of their former pay. Meanwhile, most of their kids are having are very hard time breaking into career fields, and many are opting for the military just for secure employment.

    Frankly, I don't know what the answer is. This is a mess. But blaming the boomers definitely sidesteps the real issue.
    Jan 28, 2014. 12:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity: The Most Egregiously Overvalued Stock In The Nasdaq?  [View article]
    Gross margins remain in the 30-40% range. Sales are rising by more than 50% Y/Y, and leasing contracts by more than 70%. Hits to the net have come largely from acquisitions--good ones, in my view. So I'm unworried.

    More important, SCTY's leasing model solves the world's largest problem, overcoming the installation cost barrier for the most important energy technology of the next century. Now that all the world's major scientific academies have clearly called to leave 70-80% of the world's fossil fuels unburned, or risk insanely costly climate catastrophe, there is no question that US policy winds will be ever-more-strongly at SCTY's back.
    Jan 28, 2014. 11:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity: The Most Egregiously Overvalued Stock In The Nasdaq?  [View article]
    You're right: SCTY is expensive. However, I believe you're wrong to discount the value of its franchise. The company's moat is not in proprietary technology, as you suggest it should be; instead, it is in brand equity and locking up long-term contracts, both of which are going extremely well.

    The fact that so many of the world's top investment banks are heavily committed is no problem, either.

    And, yes, utilities COULD compete directly with SCTY, but they are being extremely slow in doing so. Utilities hate the distributed generation model, and most of them have simply wasted their time fighting solar in the courts, rather than leading the industry as they should. They will be crushed (in much of Europe, they already have been).
    Jan 27, 2014. 01:21 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity's Acquisition Of Common Assets Is A Game Changer  [View article]
    Good related article:
    Jan 20, 2014. 01:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity's Acquisition Of Common Assets Is A Game Changer  [View article]
    SCTY's moat is made of two items: 20-year energy contracts, and preeminent consumer brand equity.
    Jan 20, 2014. 01:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity: Pegged For Another Strong Year  [View article]
    The difference between then and now: solar pv is now hitting grid parity, while the UN IPCC's 5th Assessment Report clarifies the need to act as nothing else has. These reports issue only every 6-7 years. The last stage of the report now being released says that continued carbon pollution will heap massive costs on our descendants, including food shortages and warfare, so the only solution is to immediately switch to renewable power...which we can finally do, thanks in part to solar improvements, if we can triple clean energy investments to about $1 trillion, which is only a little more than we now spend on fossil fuel subsidies.

    The future is definitely looking bright for solar. The bigger question is when to start shorting oil.
    Jan 17, 2014. 01:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity: Pegged For Another Strong Year  [View article]
    "Strong?" I'd say "unstoppable". Deutsche and Goldman have both just targeted SCTY at $90. With solar hitting grid parity and the UN climate chief calling to triple carbon-free energy investments to prevent climate catastrophe, this is just looking better and better.
    Jan 16, 2014. 12:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity: Pegged For Another Strong Year  [View article]
    Thanks for this. I'd add that most of us are looking at this through fundamentals lenses, which probably isn't smart. If ever there were a macro story, this is it. Solar efficiency is beginning to hit grid parity and will soon dive far below it. The UN climate chief calls for a tripling of carbon-free energy investment to keep global warming to within the 2-degree threshold of catastrophic risk. The Obama administration has made clean energy a priority. The solar leasing model overcomes the primary objection to residential solar: the installation cost. Early success in California, Hawaii and the Southwest has put SolarCity so far in front of the pack, no one else is close. And rooftop solar is a perfect way for Americans to continue indulging their love affair with autos, by reducing the effective cost of plug-in cars.

    Call me a believer, times ten. I've been in SCTY for a great ride, and I've only added to my position.
    Jan 15, 2014. 04:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Climate Change And Your Portfolio  [View article]
    Hey, there, Idaho. You don't believe science? I'm shocked--shocked!
    Dec 30, 2013. 08:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment